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01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:36 pm

Winds probably near 70 mph

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 69c6ed74b783f6413c4a9b30e8f2464a

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:37 pm

Jeez

https://2img.net/h/oi67.tinypic.com/4gqclu.jpg

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:44 pm

I have never seen this from NWS this early they think this shit is real for this to be posted

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY AND THOSE WITH
TRAVEL-OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE DELMARVA, EASTERN PA AND NJ SHOULD
THINK ABOUT CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ADVERSE WINTER WX. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING A
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS
25 TO 40 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.

DETERMINISTIC DETAILS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT TIMING HEAVIEST
PCPN, AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AND THE AMOUNTS, AS WELL AS THE RAIN
SNOW LINE STILL REMAIN WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES. THIS
MESSAGE ONLY SERVES NOTICE THAT A POTENT EVENT LOOMS AND THOUGHT
SHOULD BE GIVEN AS TO MITIGATING ACTIONS SHOULD OUR FORECAST
REMAIN SIMILARLY ADVERSE WHEN ISSUED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WE DO NOT POST SNOW ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBABILITIES
ON OUR WINTER WEATHER PAGE BEYOND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER, WPC HAD A 50
TO 70 PCT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF MELTED WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:45 pm

Wow NWS is harping early.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:47 pm

The energy is still over the central Pacific. Lots can change still. Tomorrow is another day.

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 6c65a13d1cb66a503b98a8034dbaae64

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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:47 pm

Never seen them go all out like this so early. Wow.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:49 pm

Well I'm not sure when else I've seen such model consistency in regard to a beast of a storm 5 days out. Maybe '93?
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:50 pm

R. Maue, again on Twitter: "Moisture, tropopause dynamics and low pressure for potential massive snowstorm/blizzard Fri-Sat ... #crippling"
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The energy is still over the central Pacific. Lots can change still. Tomorrow is another day.

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 6c65a13d1cb66a503b98a8034dbaae64

Thanks WPC for point out where Hawaii is.  I would have never guessed Laughing

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:53 pm

Frank how are you ? Are temps going to be an issue for this storm I see channel 7 at 37 degrees
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:53 pm

I must say, I'm rather disappointed lol

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 Cmc_snow_acc_neng_24

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:I must say, I'm rather disappointed lol

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 Cmc_snow_acc_neng_24

Rb I will sick DOC on you!!Jet streak you are talking about in your post is going to be unbelievable at 250 - sick.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:57 pm

algae888 wrote:01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 Gfs_asnow_neus_30

I'v seen the GFS do some pretty outrageous things in my life.........pretty safe to say that THIS BY FAR TAKES THE CAKE lmfao 41" of snow?!!! That's 1888 material and the stuff dreams are made of lmfaoooo

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Post by chief7 Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:59 pm

I am a little concerned about the 850 line creeping West

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:00 am

Here's the Canadian with a different ratio:

More sensible lol

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 Snowfall_total_accum_lwwratio_NECONUS_hr171

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:06 am

Yes mugs sorry am out yes am following can't temper excitementr winds omg b word to extreme. Euro plz frankzilla!
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:06 am

Anyone know where the UKMET stands? It's supposedly the 2nd most reliable model as of late.
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:08 am

amugs wrote:Snow maps are going be siiiiiccckkk!! PA sees 40" plus in some spots
.
Mug's, WOW that sounds good to me, but I don't want to get to excited because it's still 5 days away.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:09 am

With a storm this insane there will be no temp issues at least not nyc area. The wind will b worse than qe evwr sern with a sbowstorm . Omg I'm beyond words. This is all I want anything after this is icing. Plz verify! The consistency and input of major Mets at 5 days is amazing. I can't wait for wed. Something tells me this is not going to change it will be a roid at least. OK let's say Godzilla at least but I'm optimistic.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:11 am

Hey its not 10 not even 7 this is gonna rock or worlds.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:12 am

Ensembles are out for the GFS. Mean MSLP is not great, BUT looking at the spaghettis tells a very different tale. Looks to me that the OP might actually be gaining credibility with respect to its own ensemble. Take notice of how many members are more in line with the OP than the mean, which is being skewed by outliers:

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 GFS_00_enUS_H50S_0102

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 GFS_00_enUS_H50S_0108

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 GFS_00_enUS_H50S_0114

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 GFS_00_enUS_H50S_0120

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 GFS_00_enUS_H50S_0126

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 GFS_00_enUS_H50S_0132

Based on these looks alone, I expect some pretty drastic westward shifts with respect to the GFS ensemble means in future runs IF the clustering holds.

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Post by Artechmetals Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:17 am

Rb, what would a westward shift mean ?
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:19 am

Artechmetals wrote:Rb, what would a westward shift mean ?

With regard to the mean........a track much more similar to that of the Operational's. Tighter to the coast, and more snow than what the ensemble mean is currently suggesting.

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:38 am

rb924119 wrote:
algae888 wrote:01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 4 Gfs_asnow_neus_30

I'v seen the GFS do some pretty outrageous things in my life.........pretty safe to say that THIS BY FAR TAKES THE CAKE lmfao 41" of snow?!!! That's 1888 material and the stuff dreams are made of lmfaoooo

RB my man. For the 1993 Superstorm my parents about 1 hour nw of you in Fishkill received 38" and Syracuse NY 41". I will not let myself believe what I am seeing until Tuesday Nights EURO....... But I did get excited when I saw 3 pages of posts in the last hour!!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked

Frank If and I repeat If this forecast holds I say last minute get-together.

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Post by snow247 Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:03 am

If anyone is still up, Euro is rolling. Will update.
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Post by snow247 Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:04 am

Looking good so far out to 57.
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Post by snow247 Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:05 am

Hour 63 almost closed over the NW. GFS did the same thing.
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