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Fellow NJ-NY-PA-CT Weather Enthusiasts

First Arctic Blast of the season expected the 1st week of DEC
Monitoring the possibility of widespread snowfall NOV 27th - DEC 7th

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

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NJ Strong Weather Forum  :: NJ Strong Weather Discussions :: Official Weather Talk Thread

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:33 pm

The dgex was beyond epic for nj and hv nyc etc. Not try jinx anything here so just waiting on the gfs.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:33 pm

JB clinging to a DGEX map, I recall that situation not going well in 2010... We'll see what the GFS shows hopefully it comes back north and doesn't show as much of a confluence signal.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:37 pm

Hour 24 the PAC energy looks stronger.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:38 pm

Hour 30 trough looks stronger - and - the ULL in CA is slightly N&E. Slightly...

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:40 pm

Shortwave in eastern Canada is definitely weaker here

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:40 pm

Hour 36 the trough is actually pulled slightly west which is a good thing IMO. Will give heights ahead more time to rise. Also indicative of a slower evolution.

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Post by chief7 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:40 pm

Is that good RB

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:42 pm

chief7 wrote:Is that good RB

Hopefully, assuming status quo with everything else.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:43 pm

Hour 45 I like it. Trough is stronger, ridge is stronger, now lets see if heights can respond along EC.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Hour 45 I like it. Trough is stronger, ridge is stronger, now lets see if heights can respond along EC.

Looks like that pesky lobe of the PV is still there -_-

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Post by Vinnydula Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:44 pm

Pray!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:47 pm

Hour 57 the confluence over NW looks a tag stronger to me. More of a dip in heights. But the trough itself and heights over plains looks better.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:47 pm

NE not NW

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:48 pm

Hour 63 - despite the confluence - heights rising into NJ now

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:49 pm

Gonna be interesting how this second phase goes....

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:50 pm

Hour 66 - trough is going neutral faster. 18z was still positive at this time. And that pesky s/w over NE is moving out faster.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:50 pm

Board is dead compared to last night.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:50 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Hour 66 - trough is going neutral faster. 18z was still positive at this time. And that pesky s/w over NE is moving out faster.

Heights CLEARLY responding over the EC

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Post by pdubz Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:52 pm

low is over Tennessee and heights rising
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:53 pm

Heights are much higher along the EC. I THINK this should be better than 18z. But we'll see.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:53 pm

Energy coming into the Pacific Northwest is stronger compared to 12z, and ridge is folding a little faster.


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:54 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:54 pm

Over hatteras at 81, come on, due north....
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:54 pm

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:54 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Board is dead compared to last night.

Not dead skins just nervous ass hell.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:54 pm

Wow

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

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Post by pdubz Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:55 pm

off the south Carolina shore now
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:55 pm

NNE at 84
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