Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:51 am

Jman we still need you for the precip and snowfall maps when you have them. You are the map and wind man.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:53 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Jman we still need you for the precip and snowfall maps when you have them. You are the map and wind man.

LOL okay.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:54 am

I-95 corridor looks to be getting smashed this run....

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:54 am

12z GFS

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 20 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 20 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 20 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:54 am

By Sat PM, low is offshore sub 990 and it's ripping along I-95...

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:55 am

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:55 am

Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS

Holy snow.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:55 am

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:55 am

Welp, im screwed up at Binghamton lol

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:56 am

A little south and east of 00z with H5 and weaker, but the corridor still does well

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:57 am

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:57 am

There is some convective feedback. Models are seeing too much convection on the east side of the storm and the surface low is jumping to it. If the surface low stays closer to the coast instead of jumping, QPF total would be higher. So...I would not look at QPF on any model right now.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:58 am

This is the first time in awhile we're getting a long duration event of almost 24 hours.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 20 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 20 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:58 am

Yeah its quite a bit less snow than the 06z, hopefully ur right frank. Already looked but won't hug it.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:00 am

Truly a DC special looks to be lining up. They've literally had days of runs with >2 ft.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:00 am

Expect models to gradually uptick in QPF as we get closer. This is just the beginning! Wait until they recognize the jet dynamics and PVA within the trough itself. Going to be wild. Only thing that is important now is track!!

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:01 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Expect models to gradually uptick in QPF as we get closer. This is just the beginning! Wait until they recognize the jet dynamics and PVA within the trough itself. Going to be wild. Only thing that is important now is track!!

Did this track tick south and east at all? That's what I'm hearing...

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:02 am

Look at these precip rates east of the surface low. That is why some frames it literally "jumps" and looks very unrealistic. It is going where the convection is. In theory, this could be right but the surface low would not jump like that. It would be a gradual move east. So it cuts back on QPF amounts as a result.

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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 20 728730d01d0c6e71e68552fd7ed0ba13

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:02 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Expect models to gradually uptick in QPF as we get closer. This is just the beginning! Wait until they recognize the jet dynamics and PVA within the trough itself. Going to be wild. Only thing that is important now is track!!

Gonna take a nap under my desk like in Seinfeld to be able to be up for all the runs tonight lol

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:02 am

not that bad the good amounts on that map shoot into the lower hudson valley into conn

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:03 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Look at these precip rates east of the surface low. That is why some frames it literally "jumps" and looks very unrealistic. It is going where the convection is. In theory, this could be right but the surface low would not jump like that. It would be a gradual move east. So it cuts back on QPF amounts as a result.

Yeah theres also a gap between parts of jersey and wescheter of several less inches of snow, I agree theres feedback issues, that doesn't make sense.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:03 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Expect models to gradually uptick in QPF as we get closer. This is just the beginning! Wait until they recognize the jet dynamics and PVA within the trough itself. Going to be wild. Only thing that is important now is track!!

Did this track tick south and east at all? That's what I'm hearing...

Yes, the H5 low did go south and east from 06z but not by a lot. Looks like models are still trying to "feel out" the confluence / ULL over SE CA.

by Abba701 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:05 am

A foot in the city or less?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:05 am

this is the final total map fwiw.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 20 Usa_as14

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Expect models to gradually uptick in QPF as we get closer. This is just the beginning! Wait until they recognize the jet dynamics and PVA within the trough itself. Going to be wild. Only thing that is important now is track!!

Did this track tick south and east at all? That's what I'm hearing...

Yes, the H5 low did go south and east from 06z but not by a lot. Looks like models are still trying to "feel out" the confluence / ULL over SE CA.

K, thanks. Other sources are saying what you are about the QPF, btw.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:06 am

City and southern WC see 12-16. theres a strange gap as I mentioned in NE nj.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:07 am

jmanley32 wrote:this is the final total map fwiw.

Lol, that's still 1-2 feet Nyc metro

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