Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:06 pm

City and southern WC see 12-16. theres a strange gap as I mentioned in NE nj.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:this is the final total map fwiw.

Lol, that's still 1-2 feet Nyc metro

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:08 pm

i'm reading twitter wars about the GFS model..it's funny lol people are angry for some reason

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:09 pm

I have no Canadian graphics Brick

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:09 pm

RJB8525 wrote:i'm reading twitter wars about the GFS model..it's funny lol people are angry for some reason

Seeing the same on mine; lots of chatter about CFI.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Expect models to gradually uptick in QPF as we get closer. This is just the beginning! Wait until they recognize the jet dynamics and PVA within the trough itself. Going to be wild. Only thing that is important now is track!!

Did this track tick south and east at all? That's what I'm hearing...

Yes, the H5 low did go south and east from 06z but not by a lot. Looks like models are still trying to "feel out" the confluence / ULL over SE CA.

I hope so. With that confluence moving out quicker I was expecting a more northward jog. What a strange run. That double barrel low doesn't help either.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:11 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:this is the final total map fwiw.

Lol, that's still 1-2 feet Nyc metro

with the CF I would side to the higher just guessing.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:13 pm

o6z was much higher so that's why people are grumbling, but as frank said this run had issues, when are we going to be able to lock this in lol, probably not till tomorrow night.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:14 pm

Peeps,

amugs back on duty and I love what I am seeing in the ON trends and this morning. AS Frank said the upper dynamics of this are tremendous with a tremendous 250 jet streak over head that looks to be in NE - the globals will take a couple of runs top get the qpf so don't hang your hat on it they will I feel bump up. You give 10-14" and I sign now but teh ccb and mod to heavy snow duration of this event is going to be awesome. I look for teh RGEM starting tonight to see what it is going to sniff out qpf wise and post that bad boy has been hot and deadly within 36 hours.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:16 pm

CANADIAN BOUTTA GO THE PROVERBIAL HAM SWISS SALAMI AND CHEESE SANDWICH ON US

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:17 pm

12z CMC

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 21 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 21 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 21 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 21 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 21 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:18 pm

GGEM did some weird things with the surface low too. I have a feeling this is going to be a struggle through tonight and tomorrow. This is where I REALLY have to do a good job of trying to figure out the track on my own.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GGEM did some weird things with the surface low too. I have a feeling this is going to be a struggle through tonight and tomorrow. This is where I REALLY have to do a good job of trying to figure out the track on my own.

I was just gonna post about that lol H5 looked amazing and then the surface maps looked eh. Like, what?? lmfao

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:21 pm

What the hell is kicking the low due east like that from
ocean city to south of the benchmark?!

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:22 pm

The coast is it safe to say its at least foot

by **jake732** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:23 pm

When does the next euro come out??

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:25 pm

jake732 wrote:When does the next euro come out??

1:30pm

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:27 pm

and cmc has it starting early morning sat for nyc area, that's much later than original thought.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:31 pm

jake732 wrote:When does the next euro come out??

We are looking great jake

by **jake732** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:34 pm

Skinns , that's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing 6 to 10 with rain mixing in... What are u seeing?

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:36 pm

Looking at things overnight and this morning and yuo tell me on this statement
from a friend who is a pro met

"This is a product of how models are handling the energy in the trough and more importantly the pva. I still don't think they are doing a good job with handling it. With increasing hgts on the ec, perfect ridge axis position, and strong pva I still favor a bit/more n and w solution than what I am seeing now."

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:37 pm

Frank Rb do you guys not feel its possible that insted of CFI its actuallyt the redevelopment of a new LP center at the triple point in response to an occluded front via the original main LP center backing under the ULL??

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:37 pm

So where today runs good or bad I'm confused

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:38 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:So where today runs good or bad I'm confused

Just a wiggle and a wobble skins. Neither here nor there for me at this point.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:43 pm

sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:So where today runs good or bad I'm confused

Just a wiggle and a wobble skins. Neither here nor there for me at this point.

Right so we are in great shape I was getting confused bc I'm hearing all great things then a bunch of bs

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:45 pm

12z JMA is a hit I'm hearing. For whatever that is good for. Wink

by **crippo84** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:CANADIAN BOUTTA GO THE PROVERBIAL HAM SWISS SALAMI AND CHEESE SANDWICH ON US

This is the best quote I've read in my many years of following you guys. I almost lost it at work.

Looks like a great run for the city, but all the comments on CFI have me very curious about it. Keep up the great work you guys.

by Sponsored content