01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Any chance with the intensity we see ratios higher than 10:1, I believe that map is 10:1

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That cutoff is just insanity! So sharp.

Stop rubbing it in. JK

And Frank what do you think the snow growth will be 12 - 1 13 - 1

10:1 because of wind.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

that looks like 12-18 for NYC and very southern WC wooo, and yes WP etc is southern wc, though its not for watch warning purposes. Wow CT gets very little and haha boston gets shafted.

another nudge of 25 maybe even 15-20 miles N and i'm in baby

chief7 wrote:Thanks Mugs

You got it CHIEF - that whats in the name - see My boy Scotty never and I mean never lets me down with his thoujghts on stormas - I wish he would join here - he feels really good about what I stated above - teh confluence is not at all modelled right and the weaker it is she or Jonas will track further North - he feels OC is a good spot NOW but thinks it can get North of there by SHOW TIME - that would be a kick in the proverbial nuts to the many in teh meteorological world - teh nay nays!!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That cutoff is just insanity! So sharp.

Stop rubbing it in. JK

CP I feel for ya, plenty times I been shafted due to changeover and u guys have got the gold. I am not going to gloat that would be wrong, plus I am on the cusp there, its a fine line, will feel better if it ticks north another 25-50 miles.

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That cutoff is just insanity! So sharp.

Stop rubbing it in. JK

CP I feel for ya, plenty times I been shafted due to changeover and u guys have got the gold.  I am not going to gloat that would be wrong, plus I am on the cusp there, its a fine line, will feel better if it ticks north another 25-50 miles.

It will give it some time positive JUJU for our boys in the HV now peeps and listen or read what I wrote and what Frank posted about the confluence that it is not modelled correctly - it will be weaker and the PVA with bring this a tick and a tat NW. It has so far with the coastal just let it happen and we all will have white gold to frolic around in.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Oh well getting used to this, expect little give much. I will cheer on those to the south, the HV is not the place to be this storm and that's been fairly apparent from the beginning. Some runs said otherwise but not enough runs to be convincing. The force field seems to be in place at I287 in NY, maybe with luck as far north as I84.

CP, DOC just a feeling here. Nature balances things out. After the past few years of S and E I have a gut feeling that in the subsequent runs we trend further and further north until all the way up to near Albany winds up 12+. I feel bad rejoicing while you guys get shafted again. Just a feeling but you watch!!

The continued decrease in the confluent flow to our north and the improvements with the h5 progression and pva are all going to be beneficial for all of us going forward - lay mans terms!!

syosnow94 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Oh well getting used to this, expect little give much. I will cheer on those to the south, the HV is not the place to be this storm and that's been fairly apparent from the beginning. Some runs said otherwise but not enough runs to be convincing. The force field seems to be in place at I287 in NY, maybe with luck as far north as I84.

CP, DOC just a feeling here.  Nature balances things out.  After the past few years of S and E I have a gut feeling that in the subsequent runs we trend further and further north until all the way up to near Albany winds up 12+.  I feel bad rejoicing while you guys get shafted again.  Just a feeling but you watch!!

Don't forget the guys in NEPA.

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That cutoff is just insanity! So sharp.

Stop rubbing it in. JK

CP I feel for ya, plenty times I been shafted due to changeover and u guys have got the gold.  I am not going to gloat that would be wrong, plus I am on the cusp there, its a fine line, will feel better if it ticks north another 25-50 miles.

I know, CP! I'm sorry! I think it'll trend even further north. Think of where we were yesterday compared to today's improvement. This storm is still 2.5 days out. I want everyone on this forum to get a roidzilla!

SNOW MAN wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Oh well getting used to this, expect little give much. I will cheer on those to the south, the HV is not the place to be this storm and that's been fairly apparent from the beginning. Some runs said otherwise but not enough runs to be convincing. The force field seems to be in place at I287 in NY, maybe with luck as far north as I84.

CP, DOC just a feeling here.  Nature balances things out.  After the past few years of S and E I have a gut feeling that in the subsequent runs we trend further and further north until all the way up to near Albany winds up 12+.  I feel bad rejoicing while you guys get shafted again.  Just a feeling but you watch!!

Don't forget the guys in NEPA.

You're right. Didn't mean to!!

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That cutoff is just insanity! So sharp.

Stop rubbing it in. JK

CP I feel for ya, plenty times I been shafted due to changeover and u guys have got the gold.  I am not going to gloat that would be wrong, plus I am on the cusp there, its a fine line, will feel better if it ticks north another 25-50 miles.

I know, CP! I'm sorry! I think it'll trend even further north. Think of where we were yesterday compared to today's improvement. This storm is still 2.5 days out. I want everyone on this forum to get a roidzilla!

me too it would be beautiful if we could all rejoice together in harmony

What do I need to do to get in on the chat? Have never done it before!!

deleted

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That cutoff is just insanity! So sharp.

Stop rubbing it in. JK

CP I feel for ya, plenty times I been shafted due to changeover and u guys have got the gold.  I am not going to gloat that would be wrong, plus I am on the cusp there, its a fine line, will feel better if it ticks north another 25-50 miles.

I know, CP! I'm sorry! I think it'll trend even further north. Think of where we were yesterday compared to today's improvement. This storm is still 2.5 days out. I want everyone on this forum to get a roidzilla!

Don't jinx it now we should all be happy with a Godzilla, anything more to roid potential is a bonus. I think though we do see a NW trend and we see upticks in qpf. Woop Woop as mugs would say lol

syosnow94 wrote:What do I need to do to get in on the chat?  Have never done it before!!

Scroll all the way down to the bottom of the home page. Right Click and open in a new tab where it says Join the chat on the left

syosnow94 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Oh well getting used to this, expect little give much. I will cheer on those to the south, the HV is not the place to be this storm and that's been fairly apparent from the beginning. Some runs said otherwise but not enough runs to be convincing. The force field seems to be in place at I287 in NY, maybe with luck as far north as I84.

CP, DOC just a feeling here.  Nature balances things out.  After the past few years of S and E I have a gut feeling that in the subsequent runs we trend further and further north until all the way up to near Albany winds up 12+.  I feel bad rejoicing while you guys get shafted again.  Just a feeling but you watch!!

You're a good man Syos we shall see.

People keep drawing the parallell to this and 96. Two days before the 96 storm they were predicting a dusting in the HV I received 33 inches. Now I know forecasting has changed a lot in 20 years but you just never know. Right now we're 30-40 miles from 3 inches to 15, that's not a very big jog.

Just wanted to say thank you to everyone on here. I've been "lurking" on here for a few years now. You guys always seem to be right on. I like constant updates as opposed to the local tv mets that give you just enough info that you have to stay through the commercial break. Lol I'm in south/ cnj and your knowledge is priceless for a snow nut like me (and everyone else on here).

Mt Holly Just announced they will releasing snow maps tonights which means the watches go up then as well IMO

static2987 wrote:Just wanted to say thank you to everyone on here. I've been "lurking" on here for a few years now. You guys always seem to be right on. I like constant updates as opposed to the local tv mets that give you just enough info that you have to stay through the commercial break. Lol I'm in south/ cnj and your knowledge is priceless for a snow nut like me (and everyone else on here).

Static - welcome and great first post. thanks for the positive and pat on the back. We look forward to you posting and yes there is a tremendous crew who works hard at this hobby lead by the GREAT FRANK the P (I call him this). TV mets are bound and gagged at times by tehir unknowledgable station managers so stick with us and spread teh word to those who will listen - we always stay ahead of teh curve with storms and nail things better than them 99.99z% of the time. Good Luck with this storm.

Mugs

cp hyde not giving up hearing lots of chatter of this going north stay positive and by tomorrow we might feel better!!

jimv45 wrote:cp hyde not giving up hearing lots of chatter of this going north stay positive and by tomorrow we might feel better!!

I haven't given up but this is 50-50 to me now for us, can go either way.

Im not believing until I see. Last few years in southern Dutchess have been rough. To see the cutoffs here with the city getting a foot and me getting an inch is tough. I want at least a foot or nothing at all. If its not a real storm dont waste my time. I like extremes so if not a big storm I will like to keep my nearly snowless winter so its something to be proud of.

2004 i get you but this winter i will take anything but stay positive i got a good feeling this will improve for us by tomorrow!

How can I make a snow map  I said for days now nyc was gonna get a 2010 special maybe better.  16 " Brooklyn ny or more  I feel we are in a secret jackpot zone I love this stuff