Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:53 pm

Not really a huge jump north, but at least it's something.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:53 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Out of depression or celebration?

Anxiety.

The 18z GFS gives NYC almost a foot. At 12z it was 4 inches.

What the hell is going on? I'll try and make sense of it around 8pm for my 2nd call snow map.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:53 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I've made a decision.

I'm going to the bar tonight.

Good decision....

lol so we won't b hear from u till tomorrow I guess.

by **Radz** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:55 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I've made a decision.

I'm going to the bar tonight.

Thanks for all the effort and hard work Frank, and everyone else too- great job by all, you deserve a drink!

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Out of depression or celebration?

Anxiety.

The 18z GFS gives NYC almost a foot. At 12z it was 4 inches.

What the hell is going on? I'll try and make sense of it around 8pm for my 2nd call snow map.

frank ur do gr8 this is a huge model mess. There is something that is messing them up.big time. Or not but it's just amazing within 48 hrs and still don't know. Such consensues for days now all jumbled up.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:56 pm

Any chat tonight or just regular forum talk?

by **jimv45** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:57 pm

Just saw Lee on 7 he seems very relaxed with the south trend 3-6 NYC

by **Grselig** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:58 pm

Is there really any hope for us northerners at this point. It's been a hard long week with a cold funeral today. Would love to have a little snow hope

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:00 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:01 pm

RJB8525 wrote:Any chat tonight or just regular forum talk?

Regular forum until I find a new chat platform

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:01 pm

is that the gfs?

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:01 pm

Grselig wrote:Is there really any hope for us northerners at this point. It's been a hard long week with a cold funeral today. Would love to have a little snow hope

imo this is one of the most amazing last minute model mayhem I've ever seem. Some Mets relaxed some confused again I say why goes due east. Like bernie it's just odd. Watch it follow Nam road and even with less precipitation still crushes entire area. It's been consistent. Lol

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:02 pm

frank, when mets say less on coast? how many miles west is considered coast??

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:03 pm

jimv45 wrote:Just saw Lee on 7 he seems very relaxed with the south trend 3-6 NYC

Somebody better give Lee a tweet and give him an update!

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:03 pm

Ooz Sr models go b big telling imo. Lr too but I think we need start pay more attention to Sr tonight.

by Snowfall Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:03 pm

Please I beg oh lord

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:05 pm

This could also just be model noise at this point. Would like to see the 00z GFS be north as well before getting excited.

by **hyde345** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm

Hudson Valley is toast. Nam tried to pull me in again but I'm out. C-1 north of 84.

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:09 pm

this is driving us nuts i just want a foot of snow come on dam it Embarassed

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:10 pm

Frank what caused the northward trend on the 18zGFS? Did the h5 low close later or less confluence?

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:11 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank what caused the northward trend on the 18zGFS? Did the h5 low close later or less confluence?

I'll have more in writeup, but H5 low track further north and the surface low was less anxious to chase convection. It stays organized and closer to coast longer which allowed CCB to pivot.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:12 pm

How weird is this wsw 2 to 8 inches winds gust to 45mph no bluzzard watch but how is that even a wsw 2? Lol whatever this is just crazy

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:15 pm

LETS GIVE IT UP

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:16 pm

‏@NEweatherHQ
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:16 pm

I'll reiterate what I said earlier, it seems the GFS has more desire to move toward the NAM then the NAM has to completely collapse. I think the answer may lie in between (although maybe closer to the 18z GFS).

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:17 pm

syosnow94 wrote:LETS GIVE IT UP

I'm not. I'll be staying up for the 0zGFS run. Another 25-50 tick north and this board will explode!!! Basketball

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Out of depression or celebration?

Anxiety.

The 18z GFS gives NYC almost a foot. At 12z it was 4 inches.

What the hell is going on? I'll try and make sense of it around 8pm for my 2nd call snow map.

Same here... 18z NAM shows 2 feet in Sussex, NJ. Hires shows 0, although its only through 60, seriously? Here its less dramatic, 18z reg shows about 2 feet, hires shows about a foot give or take...

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