Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:17 pm

syosnow94 wrote:LETS GIVE IT UP

I'm not. I'll be staying up for the 0zGFS run. Another 25-50 tick north and this board will explode!!! Basketball

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Out of depression or celebration?

Anxiety.

The 18z GFS gives NYC almost a foot. At 12z it was 4 inches.

What the hell is going on? I'll try and make sense of it around 8pm for my 2nd call snow map.

Same here... 18z NAM shows 2 feet in Sussex, NJ. Hires shows 0, although its only through 60, seriously? Here its less dramatic, 18z reg shows about 2 feet, hires shows about a foot give or take...

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:18 pm

jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:19 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:LETS GIVE IT UP
I'm not. I'll be staying up for the 0zGFS run. Another 25-50 tick north and this board will explode!!!

it just seems like you can't give up on this one..a gut feeling for me

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank will you have an in depth on what to expect timing,winds,tides, and final cal tonight

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:21 pm

algae888 wrote:

I've been at clients all day so I just logged onto my phone and I see my area is smack in the middle of 30 inches. this morning when I left I was pretty much expecting zero. I thought someone might be playing a joke and then realized it was the latest NAM, so someone is playing a joke.

by mwilli5783 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:24 pm

this storm started out sunday/monday as a mecs(godzilla)then tues it changed to a secs and now here its thursday and some of the mets calling a 3-6 in storm..im still gonna be on here cause i still think were gonna get at least a 8-12......btw u guys name storms as godzilla(mecs)12-23 in,roidzilla(hecs)24-35 in and frankzilla(becs)36+..so hears a new one..hand of god 40+ and beyond

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:25 pm

snow247 wrote:
jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

Obviously someone that knows nothing about forecasting. But how I wish they were somehow right.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:27 pm

Does anyone know if their is mixing issues for northern coastal ocean county

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:28 pm

i was watching lonnie quinn he has nyc long island and north 4 to 8 come on this depressing when will see higher amounts

by Deweydave Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:28 pm

jake732 wrote:
‏@NEweatherHQ
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Jake i live in Danbury CT Western Part the cutoff will be so bad it could be snowing in the Westchester and the Sun could be out on Sat in CT lol

by **amugs** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:42 pm

WTH?? The GFGS takes a 15 -20 mile jog north - lets hope it is trend to the NAM - that would be the BEST EVRRR!! People would poop in their pants and cry foul at the met world up here.

I am not following tonight (just to check in here and there)and when I wake up I will see what is what - this has been the most frustrating and headache storm I have ever tracked hands down.

I think I may join Frank at Lou's in my town where good friends meet!!

drunken

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:44 pm

Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno
I will be doing a periscope at 6pm to discuss..yes the NAM and the new GFS. They both provide some interesting insight.

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:46 pm

Thanks for all the analysis and hard work. I mean that sincerely.

I give you guys credit. This waffling and wish casting isn't good for me. If I wake up tonight I'll looka t the forum and see what's up, but no joke if we are at 3-6" or even 4-8" I'd rather have 0" I know you guys will kill me but this is BS. I'd rather remember getting less than 1" for the winter than a 6" storm that will go down as one of the most impressive in history. By the way 12-14" in Memphis TN tonight. Screw this.

Long, frustrating, pointless week!

...and GOD do I hope I'm embarrassed tomorrow morning about giving up on this "storm"

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:48 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:Any chat tonight or just regular forum talk?

Regular forum until I find a new chat platform

frank I can ask my husband if you want some ideas...after he is done scolding me for opening a map this morning that might have been a joke or might have infected the computer I was on... Rolling Eyes

by Ronniek Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:54 pm

Unreal Lonnie Quinn just said 4-8 more likely 4 in the five boroughs winds around 25mph what a joke this storm is turning into by tomorrow it will be 1-3 inches

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:55 pm

just bec lonnie quinn said that it doesnt mean hes correct

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:57 pm

Hearing the GEFS is north and wetter.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:57 pm

Ronniek wrote:Unreal Lonnie Quinn just said 4-8 more likely 4 in the five boroughs winds around 25mph what a joke this storm is turning into by tomorrow it will be 1-3 inches

Were his sleeves rolled up?

lol Jake i think he's the worst in the entire tri-state

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:58 pm

hes out 2 lunch

by **Snow88** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:58 pm

GEFS more north and wetter. 1 inch of QPF for NYC with more on the south shore of NYC ( Queens, Brooklyn, SI.)

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:59 pm

Accuwx has blizzard for me sat night winds gust 50mph 6 inches. Sat daytime 4 inches 45 mph gusts. I agree that gfs may b catch to mam and a foot plus is in order. 30 plus umm doubt highly but omg if....

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:00 pm

Snow88 wrote:GEFS more north and wetter. 1 inch of QPF for NYC with more on the south shore of NYC ( Queens, Brooklyn, SI.)

maps what about bx and southern westchester?

by Ferndue21 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm

Some of the weather guys on TV have upped their totals again!

by Ronniek Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm

Lonnie Quinn's sleeves weren't rolled up but he losened his tie lol

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:06 pm

Here's my First Call ladies and gents (note that this was based on all data up to and including 12z runs today):

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 27 Jan22-10

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 27 Jan22-10

I'm not going to give an in-depth explanation, as I'm sure Frank will do so later tonight, but if you want me to just let me know. Anyway, I did not feel confident enough to 1) bring some of the higher totals through the Philadelphia region and into parts of central New Jersey, and 2) designate a region for greater than 18". I'm sure there will be localized spots that see more than that, but based on what I'm seeing I don't feel like those values will be common enough to warrant denotation. For anybody that this map angers (including myself), I sincerely apologize.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:10 pm

Wow zero snow for me basically. I hope ur wrong th no offense but respect to ur profession.

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