Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:11 am

Yep.Lee Goldberg mentioned the other night , as Bill Evens did once, the models are for guidance only.They predicted a storm which developed, but the exact track can't be certain until the day of the storm.I have seen bizarre things happen watching these snowstorms for many years.You are only sure the day the storm hits and your radar shows you 6 to 8 hours of 1 to 2 inch an hour snowfall.Until then, nothing is a lock.

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:18 am

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It's global models vs short range hi res models. Let's see if global models lose the convective feedback today.

Frank I am sorry to say but I really don't think convective feedback is the main culprit here. I really think its that we have a decaying system by the time we get it all the way up here. The reason it still looks all wird is that you still have the enhanced area of convection to the east in response to the 300mb jet streak to the NE. I think its going to be a battle in the models, like you said, global vs s/r hi res to see how much of the main LP precip shield can hold up and how far north can it get. The ULL matures too soon leading to this surface LP being in that latter stages of it evolution. The start time keeps getting pushed back because everything slows down as soon as we have our mature ULL and surface LP which is trending earier and earlier. Result decaying/occluded/fmain LP filling in. I don't like it. Im not saying things wont change but I just don't like it.

I'm with you sroc. And now mentioning a changeover? My guess is we get light snow for a few hours then it rains all Saturday afternoon (the only part that will verify correct) then we get a sloppy 1-2" on top that freezes overnight, while we watch footage of areas a couple of hundred miles SOUTH get 2 feet +

This is NOT what Im saying.

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:20 am

syosnow94 wrote:TWC FWIW has NYC and LI 5-8"

In My Opinion Upton will lower totals for their area by half this evening. I'm now 8-12" and will go down to 4-8" and probably even lower tomorrow.

There is NO DOUBT IN MY MIND that the upton map will go down...then up...then down again...then..... I mean its what they do. This will happen 6 times in the next 24hrs. Pay no attention to that.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:24 am

Bernie feels blizzard area will become much bigger, and that only 50-60 mile jog will make a huge difference. That's NOT a large space to move. Heres hoping. 8-12 I can't complain, just want to see some of those stronger winds : )

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:24 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:TWC FWIW has NYC and LI 5-8"

In My Opinion Upton will lower totals for their area by half this evening. I'm now 8-12" and will go down to 4-8" and probably even lower tomorrow.

There is NO DOUBT IN MY MIND that the upton map will go down...then up...then down again...then..... I mean its what they do. This will happen 6 times in the next 24hrs. Pay no attention to that.

Yep.I've seen them ramp it up as the snow accumulates the day of the storm and they were behind the eight ball.Sometimes it's hilarious!

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:25 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:TWC FWIW has NYC and LI 5-8"

In My Opinion Upton will lower totals for their area by half this evening. I'm now 8-12" and will go down to 4-8" and probably even lower tomorrow.

There is NO DOUBT IN MY MIND that the upton map will go down...then up...then down again...then..... I mean its what they do. This will happen 6 times in the next 24hrs. Pay no attention to that.

I was just thinking the same thing, their map is so volitle and isn't it based mainly off GFS?

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:28 am

If you watch Rayno's video I take away 2 things..

1. He thinks it will still come a little north
2. If it does not come north my backyard which is 6-12" now could see the higher end or maybe more, and if it does come further north we see mixing and totals come down.

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:29 am

I'm Making up trust the NAM tee-shirts

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:30 am

syosnow94 wrote:I'm Making up trust the NAM tee-shirts

LOL, if this is true it will be the one and only time! And we would all have a cow with the totals its been showing for jersey and NYC etc.

6-12 is nothing to scoff at.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:32 am

12z NAM is staying its course so far through 54.

by **essexcountypete** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:33 am

syosnow94 wrote:I'm Making up trust the NAM tee-shirts

I'll take one, but I'd like mine with "/s" written on the back to indicate sarcasm.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:35 am

NAM still outputs a Godzilla for the area. Trough went negative a little quicker this run. Still, we need to see better support from gloval models. We'll know more later today.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 14 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 14 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:38 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It's global models vs short range hi res models. Let's see if global models lose the convective feedback today.

Frank I am sorry to say but I really don't think convective feedback is the main culprit here. I really think its that we have a decaying system by the time we get it all the way up here. The reason it still looks all wird is that you still have the enhanced area of convection to the east in response to the 300mb jet streak to the NE. I think its going to be a battle in the models, like you said, global vs s/r hi res to see how much of the main LP precip shield can hold up and how far north can it get. The ULL matures too soon leading to this surface LP being in that latter stages of it evolution. The start time keeps getting pushed back because everything slows down as soon as we have our mature ULL and surface LP which is trending earier and earlier. Result decaying/occluded/fmain LP filling in. I don't like it. Im not saying things wont change but I just don't like it.

In my 00z update yesterday I said I don't think there is CF either. Shortly after I noted many trusted sources and Mets felt the globals were in fact showing CF when looking at H850 and H700. I figured heck, who is to argue with them.

Notice how the NAM and other short range models aren't nearly as broad with the LLC. Who knows at this point.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:38 am

I wish that deformation band would get another 75 miles further north, but it ain't gonna happen :'( lol

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:39 am

I'm very interested in what the RGEM shows today. Closing in its range now.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:49 am

NAM increased snow amounts far to the north, anyone care to see the map? Less in NYC, its actually a bit more realistic than last run.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:52 am

Well for anyone who might be interested it came north, but lowered totals around NYC, still not in decent range yet but storm ends at 75 hrs.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 14 Nam_1_11

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 14 Nam_1_11

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:52 am

In the map I posted look at the thunderstorms east of the LLC and how it's not being effected by it. Frontogenesis moves north and west of NYC this run to help those folks see decent snow.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:53 am

Weird I posted the img, Frank did you disable being able to post NAM snow maps lol

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:56 am

SREF for kennedy median is 11.37 and highest potential is a ridiculous 35.6, imagine if that verified, ill take the median between those two lol

by **amugs** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:57 am

Jesus just catching up on overnight trends and posts - wth??

Looks like Meoscale vs globals for us up here -RGEM is the one that will hopefully show the goods for us.

i see Scott's point with this ULL if would have closed off say over NE Tenn as we modelled Sun/Mon then we have an area wide Godzilla hands down IMO.

This track is razor sharp and a 25-50 mile jog is the difference for some here.
I have lots of friends and family asking me about this - my answer sit tight - we are going to get snow teh problem is we don't yet know how much up here in NNJ. We need this LP to take teh NE trend when it gets towards the coast not hope due east - I have never seen such when it gets to the coast with a storm of the pressure - closed or not

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:58 am

OMG NYC I don't know wether to laugh or gasp

Okay I do not know why my images are not coming up can you all see them? The img link is in here.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:00 am

Frank I can't see anyones images posted, browser issue or site?

by **amugs** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:01 am

RGEM is north of gfs but a bit south of NAM but a good run so far

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 14 I_nw_EST_2016012112_048

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:01 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It's global models vs short range hi res models. Let's see if global models lose the convective feedback today.

Frank I am sorry to say but I really don't think convective feedback is the main culprit here. I really think its that we have a decaying system by the time we get it all the way up here. The reason it still looks all wird is that you still have the enhanced area of convection to the east in response to the 300mb jet streak to the NE. I think its going to be a battle in the models, like you said, global vs s/r hi res to see how much of the main LP precip shield can hold up and how far north can it get. The ULL matures too soon leading to this surface LP being in that latter stages of it evolution. The start time keeps getting pushed back because everything slows down as soon as we have our mature ULL and surface LP which is trending earier and earlier. Result decaying/occluded/fmain LP filling in. I don't like it. Im not saying things wont change but I just don't like it.

In my 00z update yesterday I said I don't think there is CF either. Shortly after I noted many trusted sources and Mets felt the globals were in fact showing CF when looking at H850 and H700. I figured heck, who is to argue with them.

Notice how the NAM and other short range models aren't nearly as broad with the LLC. Who knows at this point.

I would really like to see how the rgem depicts how the precip shield plays out once its in range. I would have thought a few days ago that this mornings 12z run would have been in range, but stupid storm keeps stalling. Such an interesting storm top to bottom, LR to SR. Of course NAM QPF out puts likely overdone, but I like how it is holding on to what its doing with LP positioning, and keeping precip shield as one instead of spitting it into an eastern and western shield with subsidence inbetween. Hopefully it holds as it gets into its wheelhouse, if it has one, of under 48hrs

by **amugs** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:02 am

Rgem is at least 30-50 miles north of the 6z GFS with the real precip. Good to see.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:04 am

I clicked on the little image to open up and my machine went crazy with screaming I infected my machine...my husband is going to kill me..what the heck..jman that was your 9:52 post...just so you know..I just told him(he will check when he gets home)

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