01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Rgem is at least 30-50 miles north of the 6z GFS with the real precip. Good to see.

jmanley32 wrote:OMG NYC I don't know wether to laugh or gasp



Okay I do not know why my images are not coming up can you all see them?  The img link is in here.

Thats NUTS!!!

amugs wrote:Rgem is at least 30-50 miles north of the 6z GFS with the real precip. Good to see.

Still not even into the area at end of run, who knows exactly where it will go, nail biting here and I think this may be a nowcasting type storm.

delete

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:OMG NYC I don't know wether to laugh or gasp



Okay I do not know why my images are not coming up can you all see them?  The img link is in here.

Thats NUTS!!!

I can't see any images on here but ya 40 inches highest lol, Frank I got a msg flood control wait 15 seconds. Could that be messing up my ability to view images?

weatherwatchermom wrote:I clicked on the little image to open up and my machine went crazy with screaming I infected my machine...my husband is going to kill me..what the heck..jman that was your 9:52 post...

That is bizarre, maybe there is a issue with the img server? I will not post any images until someone replies to me as what my issue may be.

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:I clicked on the little image to open up and my machine went crazy with screaming I infected my machine...my husband is going to kill me..what the heck..jman that was your 9:52 post...

That is bizarre, maybe there is a issue with the img server?  I will not post any images until someone replies to me as what my issue may be.

I have never had that happen before...my machine was literally yelling at me and bells were going off...my husband is head of Info Sec...so holy crap...he in not happy with me right now...he will check my machine when he gets home..could have been a scam thing..they kept screaming for me to call a phone number...and froze everything up..I turned off my machine and rebooted...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd&version=0&fmt=reg


Model discussion............Reading it now

There is flood control on here. Must wait 20 seconds between posts. I can see all of Jmans pics and have no issues when I click on them.

Joe Snow wrote:http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd&version=0&fmt=reg


Model discussion............Reading it now

okay, I totally did not understand that, clarify anyone?

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:I clicked on the little image to open up and my machine went crazy with screaming I infected my machine...my husband is going to kill me..what the heck..jman that was your 9:52 post...

That is bizarre, maybe there is a issue with the img server?  I will not post any images until someone replies to me as what my issue may be.

Jman did you infect the forum?? JK. Keep this stuff in banter guys

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:I clicked on the little image to open up and my machine went crazy with screaming I infected my machine...my husband is going to kill me..what the heck..jman that was your 9:52 post...

That is bizarre, maybe there is a issue with the img server?  I will not post any images until someone replies to me as what my issue may be.

Jman did you infect the forum??   JK.  Keep this stuff in banter guys

sroc please read a post in banter.

So is NWS saying basically the models are having mega issues?

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:I clicked on the little image to open up and my machine went crazy with screaming I infected my machine...my husband is going to kill me..what the heck..jman that was your 9:52 post...

That is bizarre, maybe there is a issue with the img server?  I will not post any images until someone replies to me as what my issue may be.

Jman did you infect the forum??   JK.  Keep this stuff in banter guys

sorry..it happened here so I posted here.wanted to warn..will continue any further discussion in banter..

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd&version=0&fmt=reg


Model discussion............Reading it now

okay, I totally did not understand that, clarify anyone?

From Craig Allen's Face Book Page. Gives every forecasters opinion. Hes being cautious, but looking at everything..

jmanley32 wrote:So is NWS saying basically the models are having mega issues?

That's how it reads, I think... Input anyone?

The 12z RGEM shows the surface low tugged to the coast better. Only goes out to 48. This model won't be reliable until 12z tonorrow

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So is NWS saying basically the models are having mega issues?

That's how it reads, I think... Input anyone?

They have no clue what's going on.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So is NWS saying basically the models are having mega issues?

That's how it reads, I think... Input anyone?

They have no clue what's going on.

LOL, well that's not good, imagine if this turns out to be a much bigger storm than shown and only have tomorrow afternoon to prepare...for whomever needs to do that . mainly plows etc.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
458 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

VALID JAN 21/0000 UTC THRU JAN 24/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SPLITTING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST SATURDAY/SUNDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODEL SPREAD TIMING/DEPTH-WISE ALOFT IS RATHER SMALL,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE PREFERENCE.  THE 12Z CANADIAN WASN'T
AS SHARP ALOFT AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE, BUT SHOWS SIMILAR TIMING.
THE 00Z NAM WAS A TOUCH SLOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, WHICH DOES NOT BEFIT THE FLOW
PATTERN, WHICH IS TEMPORARILY QUASI-ZONAL IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF SHOULD DEAL WITH
LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES EFFECTIVELY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ITS USUAL BIAS.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF IS
PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


CYCLONE SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM/GFS MAINLY APPEAR SLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE 500/700
HPA LEVELS, ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SPREAD -- A TRADITIONAL NAM BIAS AND OCCASIONAL GFS BIAS.  WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS, THE TIME CENTERED AROUND THE SYSTEM'S EMERGENCE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST (ROUGHLY 72 HOURS OR SATURDAY EVENING) IS WHEN CERTAIN
PIECES OF GUIDANCE TEND TO SHOW A SLOW BIAS, INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY.  THE 00Z CANADIAN LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC SPREAD.  THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF SHOWS SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S COMMA HEAD OVER THE
MID-SOUTH/MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY, WHICH ALSO COULD MEAN ITS SOLUTIONS ARE TOO SLOW.
HOWEVER, THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED QUICKER, PAST THE CENTER OF ITS OLD
ENSEMBLE MEAN.  PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS,
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO A COMPROMISE OF THE PAST COUPLE ECMWF RUNS AND
THE 18Z GFS PARALLEL RUN, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING.

Frank is there any hope for doc cp hyde and myself?

Does this mean anything is still on the table

It sounds to me like they don't like the NAM (shocking).

So they are not liking the NAM but the Euro/GFS, that's not good news since they are showing less of a storm.

We're in an unfortunate scenario where we're battling the progressive ridge and a decaying H5 low. We want the H5 low to close off at a point where it's able to still track N-NE to raise heights just enough to tug the surface low toward the coast. But the ridge rolling over prevents the northward progression so H5 closes off quickly - raises heights too much initially - which results in the H5 low decaying and being strung out when it reaches our Latitude. 

If the RGEM and NAM are right, the H5 low is not nearly as weak as Globals show hence the stronger surface low tugged to the coast.

Hi Res NAM already has 10 inches of snow on the ground CNJ south at hour 60. No clue what's it's reliability is at that point, but it is a Mesoscale model. There would still be several hours of snow to come as well.