Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anyone know an esti.ate on how long of event we are looking at I k,ow its starting later now

18-22 hours

Thank you so a little less than originally thought but still a long event

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:39 pm

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:39 pm

Frank:

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Wx10

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:40 pm

snow247 wrote:

That purple spot is right on me lol

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:41 pm

Come on NAM, throw us weenies a bone.

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:41 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Frank:

Wow, didn't think they would be that bullish. Nice.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:45 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
frank 638 wrote:frank do you think we will have a blizzard watch or winter storm watch by tom afternoon in our area

I mentioned this earlier: A friend of mine with a contact at UPTON said they are planning on (I'm assuming if things continue as-is guidance wise or trend better) releasing a Blizzard Watch for the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and in turn, warnings around 18:00 on Friday.

Just NYC metro? Or all upton area nearer the coast?

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:45 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jimv45 wrote:frank what do you think the chances of this thing giving us valley peeps more snow?

It is very hard to say at this point. The gradient is incredibly tight. I personally think the cut-off is too dramatic. There is a big relative humidity field with this storm. The air should be saturated enough to get snow bands into northern areas. We have to see how far north the frontogenesis gets.

By the way - I will have the specifics around wind and coastal flooding tomorrow.

thanks frank...starting to get nervous about those aspects of the storm...tv saying 60+ wind gusts...for prolonged period of time..makes me a little jittery..

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
frank 638 wrote:frank do you think we will have a blizzard watch or winter storm watch by tom afternoon in our area

I mentioned this earlier: A friend of mine with a contact at UPTON said they are planning on (I'm assuming if things continue as-is guidance wise or trend better) releasing a Blizzard Watch for the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and in turn, warnings around 18:00 on Friday.

Just NYC metro? Or all upton area nearer the coast?

I didn't get specific counties. I'd assume Southern Westchester would be included as it's close enough to the required sustained winds.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:47 pm

Thank you Soul

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:47 pm

My accuwx local has 52mph gusts sat. wow, and I am about 10-15 miles from the coast but pretty near the hudson which does have higher winds than over land.

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:59 pm

00z NAM closed off at hour 15 over NE Kansas.

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:59 pm

Slightly more negatively tilted at 22. More noticeable height rises this run so far.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:59 pm

One thing that concerns me is people here on coast are focusing the snow but hearing tidal flooding May rank in top 5 ever. Not good sign.

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:00 pm

Here's accuweather map 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 2cGLQkJ

by gigs68 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:00 pm

Great job by Lee on Facebook explaining what could go wrong with storm

by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:00 pm

NWS discussion states 20 foot waves....wow, this is a SNOWICANE

by **2004blackwrx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:02 pm

Bed time for me Trend north and cheer me up for the morning. The trend Is my friend.

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:03 pm

Opens up again at hour 21.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:04 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Bed time for me Trend north and cheer me up for the morning. The trend Is my friend.

good night do not forget..pj's inside out and spoons under your pillow!

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:05 pm

RJB8525 wrote:Here's accuweather map

Thanks.

Also, I can't take NAM seriously. Don't care what it shows.

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:05 pm

Trough trying to go negative earlier.

More moisture so far too. Classic comma head at hour 27.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:13 pm

Not taking precip into consideration, the NAM is further north with the H5 low which allows heights to rise more ahead of the trough.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:14 pm

Nam has a ton of moisture with it and closed over Northern Bama - come on baby

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:14 pm

FWIW the precip shield is considerably further west this run.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:17 pm

God dam Vort in teh PAC - need top watch this closely

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:18 pm

H5 is considerably NW of last run

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