01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

We're in an unfortunate scenario where we're battling the progressive ridge and a decaying H5 low. We want the H5 low to close off at a point where it's able to still track N-NE to raise heights just enough to tug the surface low toward the coast. But the ridge rolling over prevents the northward progression so H5 closes off quickly - raises heights too much initially - which results in the H5 low decaying and being strung out when it reaches our Latitude. 

If the RGEM and NAM are right, the H5 low is not nearly as weak as Globals show hence the stronger surface low tugged to the coast.

Hi Res NAM already has 10 inches of snow on the ground CNJ south at hour 60. No clue what's it's reliability is at that point, but it is a Mesoscale model. There would still be several hours of snow to come as well.

Frank_Wx wrote:We're in an unfortunate scenario where we're battling the progressive ridge and a decaying H5 low. We want the H5 low to close off at a point where it's able to still track N-NE to raise heights just enough to tug the surface low toward the coast. But the ridge rolling over prevents the northward progression so H5 closes off quickly - raises heights too much initially - which results in the H5 low decaying and being strung out when it reaches our Latitude. 

If the RGEM and NAM are right, the H5 low is not nearly as weak as Globals show hence the stronger surface low tugged to the coast.

I know you dislike the NAM, but do you have any confidence that it COULD be right on placement, forget snow totals, a better placement would obviously mean more snow for all.

Only cosistency i see over last couple days is north of I 84 gets screwed

yea 2004 but we got the latest NAM on our side!!!!!

12z GFS is running, please nudge north or at best stay steady : )

I hope the GFS goes 500 miles north..... lol

Btw, reading on the other board that the NAM is actually south.

snow247 wrote:I hope the GFS goes 500 miles north..... lol

Btw, reading on the other board that the NAM is actually south.

It is south but the precip shield is further north, I dunno I don't think anyone does. GFS out to hr 45 is moving N!

I am looking at the simple instantweathermaps.com, GFS comes in very fast.

Now a bit NE, that's okay it came north woop!

stalls off VA coast at 54!

jmanley32 wrote:stalls off VA coast at 54!

That's just AWSOME!!!!

wait this doesn't look good for the city. might have the precip south cannot tell yet.

Oy, bad bad, NYC gets less than 6 inches. Not even gonna post the map, I think im gonna cry lol, was there anything positive with the 12z?

Great.

The 12z gfs aloft trended in the right direction, but it still chases the convection east of the trough so the surface low jumps again. The short range models are not doing that. This is what it's boiling down to.

Joe What are you seeing??

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z gfs aloft trended in the right direction, but it still chases the convection east of the trough so the surface low jumps again. The short range models are not doing that. This is what it's boiling down to.

So should be forget the globals and wait for the SR to come into their best zones? Because the GFS except for central NJ was basically nothing.

No maps are showing

Frank so u are saying we have believe the short range model is more reliable now?

The same as last year the Global models handle these big storms poorly.................

Short Range vs. The Global's

Let the games begin............

boy we still got 2 days for this to be good but forgot just the other way as well boy

It really will not take much of a shift north to bring Godzilla amounts into NYC. This is far from over and the positive changes aloft gives me renewed hope

The globals could be right with jumping the surface low east, but there's arguments to be made that short range models handle the convection better. We won't know for sure until tomorrow which is crazy.

And if the low doesn't jump east?