01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call

weatherwatchermom wrote:Nick Gregory just alluded to the nam without naming..they he is becoming worried and might have to up totals... does anyone know when winds supposed to start

I think the winds will gradually increase overnight, but strongest winds should start kicking up by mid-morning tomorrow.

rb924119 wrote:H5 closed off

Did it close off were you thought it would?

Frank, Sroc, or Ace, here's my second-call (note not Final Call, as I may change it again haha) so could you please add it to the maps thread when you have a second? Thanks!!!

Reason behind my numbers is that while the SREF mean has matched the evolution at H5 the best so far, I am not confident enough to extend the higher totals into the NYC metro and LI areas. Also, my 6-10" zone may be over-done with regard to it's northern extent, but I do think there will be enough areas that reach the low end of that range; this also goes for my 10-15" range across eastern PA, northern NJ, and the southern Hudson Valley, but again, I think there will be enough verifications in the 9-10" to at least justify my thinking. This may also not be my final call, as some of the latest guidance is suggesting that I should bring the 18-24" swath through northeastern NJ, NYC, and LI, as well as the 24-30" swath to where my my 18-24" zone currently is. That said, I think that would be much too high based on the guidance that I've looked at. We'll see.

Nick Gregory on fox 5 just said he is very concerned. He was talking about the NAM being very persistent run after run along with the current observations. He said that he would be upping his snowfall totals but wanted to look at the GFS first.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:H5 closed off

Did it close off were you thought it would?

Well, it closed off a little later than I thought, and the contour (according to the Operational EMC RAP from the SPC Meso-scale Analysis) is a bit smaller, but otherwise, I think it's pretty damn close:

rb924119 wrote:Frank, Sroc, or Ace, here's my second-call (note not Final Call, as I may change it again haha) so could you please add it to the maps thread when you have a second? Thanks!!!

Reason behind my numbers is that while the SREF mean has matched the evolution at H5 the best so far, I am not confident enough to extend the higher totals into the NYC metro and LI areas. Also, my 6-10" zone may be over-done with regard to it's northern extent, but I do think there will be enough areas that reach the low end of that range; this also goes for my 10-15" range across eastern PA, northern NJ, and the southern Hudson Valley, but again, I think there will be enough verifications in the 9-10" to at least justify my thinking. This may also not be my final call, as some of the latest guidance is suggesting that I should bring the 18-24" swath through northeastern NJ, NYC, and LI, as well as the 24-30" swath to where my my 18-24" zone currently is. That said, I think that would be much too high based on the guidance that I've looked at. We'll see.

Rb I'm really liking your map for my area. Lets hope it happens.

NWS still with a watch for Orange County for max 6 inches of snow.

TWC just upped my forecast to 10-18 inches. At this point I have no clue as to what to expect here tomorrow. Those gradients are frightening in the HV as I've Harped about for days, they are similar to the blizzard of 96 only further south.

For those of us in the HV the 30 inches the NAM had us with 24 hours ago keeps slowly drifting south and is now in NNJ. This could go blizzard of 96 for parts of the HV, or Juno with the invisible barrier at the TZ bridge.

My biggest concern tomorrow is of course the Conservancy. They only had one minor measurement this year and they failed misreably coming in lower than any surrounding station. I hope they don't F up the big one. Could anything be worse than the zookeeper? Please God I hope not.

It should be very interesting and hopefully not aggravating nowcasting for everyone tomorrow. I'd love to see some records broken somewhere.

Good night all its been a long week.

CP

Nick Gregory and I are chatting now on Twitter; he's very concerned. 

Currently in the process of updating my snow map. Wow.

This is so exciting I hope it delivers. Nws should make a big change at 1045. 15 min.

snow247 wrote:Currently in the process of updating my snow map. Wow.

umm ya alot lol

Gfs started I'm mobile right now.

RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

billg315 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Gentlemen. I think we're going to need a bigger shovel.

Jaws!  I got it. Lol

Thanks. sometimes I wonder if my humor is out-dated. lol

Nope. This old man got the reference "Brody"

forget the goofus nam lead the way WOW!!!!!

algae888 wrote:RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jackpot al!

GFS is WAY north

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jackpot al!

YESSSS!!!! jman we jackpot!!! give me the rgem any day inside 24hrs but kudos to the NAM!!!!

The drifts are going to b nuts some doorways nay not b open able.

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jackpot al!

YESSSS!!!! jman we jackpot!!! give me the rgem any day inside 48hrs but kudos to the NAM!!!!

2 ft more realistic.

These two threat are driving me nuts can't we just have one

Jman anything near you yet?

Let me go look.

rb924119 wrote:GFS is WAY north

Will you be updating your snow fall map again ?

Hour 16 of the 0Z RGEM!!!! As Frank would say: MADONNE! ROIDZILLA INCOMING!!!!

Not yet.

SNOW MAN wrote:

rb924119 wrote:GFS is WAY north

Will you be updating your snow fall map again ?

Sorry not sorry yes ahaha