01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call

Frank_Wx wrote:Hi all - check out the RAP model and the surface wind gusts. 50mph going well inland into NJ!!! If I lose power I will not be happy 

Is this at all reliable, it has some pretty serious winds into my area too, looks around 45-50kts wow. And btw those are kts so its more like 60mph by you. maybe 50 by me.

Channel.12 still has me 4-8" what a fn joke they are!

Hahahaha.

Frank great map and awesome job this week the stirm, fricking exhausting as all hell but kudos to you and the rest of our family..
We got er done whew now let sit back and enjoy the white gold from big Momma!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:21Z SREFS ain't playing around 

God Bless you.......from us HV folks!

Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR snow map - and it's still snowing after this frame

God Bless you...AGAIN.... from we HV Folks!

Wowowowowow the RAP snow map 

Not gonna lie, today's 15z SREF mean is actually handling the H5 heights the best out of the three models I mentioned above: CMC and NAVY are both too folded over with the ridge and too sharp with the mouth of the trough on both the western and eastern flanks. This might be problematic......in a good way, of course lol

Srefssssssssss FTW oh and how about the hi results nam and 4k nam hmmmmmm come on boys and girls it nailed this!!!!

But i think it was the NAM that showed the northern jog first. Is it possible the NAM outdid the Globals?

Speaking of NAM, 00z run just initialized.

devsman wrote:But i think it was the NAM that showed the northern jog first. Is it possible the NAM outdid the Globals?

In my mind, if what is now forecast verifies, the NAM definitely wins the prize on this storm. It was consistent for 48 hours when the globals were all over the place.

billg315 wrote:

devsman wrote:But i think it was the NAM that showed the northern jog first. Is it possible the NAM outdid the Globals?

In my mind, if what is now forecast verifies, the NAM definitely wins the prize on this storm. It was consistent for 48 hours when the globals were all over the place.

100% agree

00z NAM 

 

Remember what I said 5 days ago? Good waiters get good tips. Enjoy the storm, and thank you Frank!

NAM going to be good.. again.

EDIT: for NYC on south.

Hey NJ...GET READ FOR THUNDERSNOW

HOLY SHIT read this DRAG update!
 

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SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/  
 
830 PM ESTF CHANGES FOR SATURDAY: ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST  
UP INTO SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN STRONG LIFT AND EXPECTED SLANTWISE  
CONVECTION DEVELOPED FM SWI SUBZERO NEAR THE BENT BACK WARMFRONT  
DEVELOPING OCCLUSION EXPECTED JUST S OF 44009 BY NOON SATURDAY.  
 
PROJECTING FOR 930 PM: ADDING SOME ACCUM FOR THE NORTH TWO THIRDS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 930 PM. REPEATING: ADDING WORDING OF GUST  
65 MPH COASTAL SLIVER SATURDAY WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL  
AND WE COULD SEE SCATTERED GUST 70 OR EVEN ISOLATED 75 MPH. NEED A  
QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z/23 NAM AT 9PM BEFORE POSTING.  
 
IN EVENTS THIS EXTREME (NW SIDE OF SFC LOW)...OFTEN SEE SCT HURRICANE  
FORCE GUSTS...IN PART EDDY TRANSFER. WONT BE SURPRISES AT GWAVE OF  
SORTS TOMORROW MORNING BUT FOR NOW...JUST ON THE WATCH FOR THAT.  
HAVENT HAD A CHC TO CHECK THE R# FOR THIS POTENTIAL EDDY TRANSFER.

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM 

 

Wow to all the 00z so far, maybe I will be closer to 18-24 according to such ones as the RAP and sref

Frank_Wx wrote:Hey NJ...GET READ FOR THUNDERSNOW

HOLY SHIT read this DRAG update!
 

---

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/  
 
830 PM ESTF CHANGES FOR SATURDAY: ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST  
UP INTO SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN STRONG LIFT AND EXPECTED SLANTWISE  
CONVECTION DEVELOPED FM SWI SUBZERO NEAR THE BENT BACK WARMFRONT  
DEVELOPING OCCLUSION EXPECTED JUST S OF 44009 BY NOON SATURDAY.  
 
PROJECTING FOR 930 PM: ADDING SOME ACCUM FOR THE NORTH TWO THIRDS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 930 PM. REPEATING: ADDING WORDING OF GUST  
65 MPH COASTAL SLIVER SATURDAY WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL  
AND WE COULD SEE SCATTERED GUST 70 OR EVEN ISOLATED 75 MPH. NEED A  
QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z/23 NAM AT 9PM BEFORE POSTING.  
 
IN EVENTS THIS EXTREME (NW SIDE OF SFC LOW)...OFTEN SEE SCT HURRICANE  
FORCE GUSTS...IN PART EDDY TRANSFER. WONT BE SURPRISES AT GWAVE OF  
SORTS TOMORROW MORNING BUT FOR NOW...JUST ON THE WATCH FOR THAT.  
HAVENT HAD A CHC TO CHECK THE R# FOR THIS POTENTIAL EDDY TRANSFER.

Will this make it into NYC area, do not really understand what its talk about, I know not the winds but I am hoping to see some thundersnow. I do however think winds all over are go be much higher than expected. This is already looking more and more crazy!

OMG CCB is just SITTING over us!!!

Gotta give credit to TWC. Usually they are steadfast on their snowfall amounts but they just keep moving that "12-18" inch line up the hudson valley. So glad to get some of you guys in the action again.

Not as good for us northern posters unfortunately. But definitely a crazy run for NYC on south. Congrats guys.

SoulSingMG wrote:OMG CCB is just SITTING over us!!!

Umm ya soul this is a nuts run, sharp cutoff but I am in it, this could be even higher than the higest we have seen so far!

Frank_Wx wrote:

jeezea looo! We gotta see some t-snow with that intensity snow.