Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[sroc4]

Seems to be a lit of uncertainty about the warm up

Yeah Skins.  I noticing a few things in the LR that at first glance look really warm for the east but if you look a little deeper I can see how things aren't quite as bad as they may seem.  I may try and do a write up on it tomorrow if someone else doesn't point it out first.  Particularly the ridging S of the Aleutians and the Ridging over Scananavia and N Europe and their potential partnership beyond day 10. There are a few diff between the GEFS and EPS as one would expect, but both show a decent signal. IF these two ridges trend stronger poleward as we go on in time they may teleconnect with each other leading to another displacement of arctic air into the mid latitudes. As per usual, however, models may be too quick in doing this. Again I will try and do a write up with some details on this with maps to make this more clear.

[rb924119]

Seems to be a lit of uncertainty about the warm up

Yeah Skins.  I noticing a few things in the LR that at first glance look really warm for the east but if you look a little deeper I can see how things aren't quite as bad as they may seem.  I may try and do a write up on it tomorrow if someone else doesn't point it out first.  Particularly the ridging S of the Aleutians and the Ridging over Scananavia and N Europe and their potential partnership beyond day 10.  There are a few diff between the GEFS and EPS as one would expect, but both show a decent signal.  IF these two ridges trend stronger poleward as we go on in time they may teleconnect with each other leading to another displacement of arctic air into the mid latitudes.  As per usual, however, models may be too quick in doing this.  Again I will try and do a write up with some details on this with maps to make this more clear.  

I think I am also going to add to this discussion, maybe later today with a quick video. The progged pattern, mainly as we head close to the New Year and beyond, does not actually scream "warmth" to me for our region.

[Frank_Wx]

In my opinion this is what I call a frustrating pattern. SE ridge flexes ahead of storm tracks to our west. The FROPA (frontal passage) then ushers in cold air behind. So when we're cold we are dry, when we're mild it's wet. In my view that's a mild pattern but "mild" may be 5 to 10 degrees above normal which is mainly 50's.

GEFS for Christmas Day



GEFS for January 2nd



1st half of January looks mostly average to me. Not necessarily above average. But the storm track pattern for snowstorms to the coast remains unfavorable for the foreseeable future.

[algae888]

^^ agree with all the above posts. don't forget we are in prime climo now so +5-10 is mostly low -mid 40's. if we can just get a wave beneath us that is where the s/e ridge can help. also noting on models how one strong HP after another will be over new England and south eastern canada after xmas. some 1040+ HP. so maybe some of those cutters can trend south over the next few days. with hell nino gone temps aren't the problem this year it's storm track. hopefully we can get the track south of us....

[Frank_Wx]

Those are nice and strong HP's. My only issue is there is no blocking to keep them in place. A storm cutting through the mid-section of the country will easily boot that HP northeast, allowing the SE ridge to surge.

[algae888]

pv goes from this ...

today
to this in 6 days

and then this 15 days.

so maybe some hope as the vortex elongates.



courtesy of steve d. so maybe some warming on the way?

[algae888]

Those are nice and strong HP's. My only issue is there is no blocking to keep them in place. A storm cutting through the mid-section of the country will easily boot that HP northeast, allowing the SE ridge to surge.

agree frank. hopefully we can get some transient block for a system or two. also these HP tend to hold their ground some at this time of year even without blocking.

[algae888]

Aleutian ridge has trended strong the last several days...

[sroc4]

Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning. I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.

[Frank_Wx]

Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning.  I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.

Hahaha please do share

[Frank_Wx]

Upper strat is forecasted to get as cold as it was last year

[sroc4]

Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning.  I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.

Hahaha please do share

I will when I have a little extra time to write up why I think there are some inaccuracies so others can chime in and we can discuss it a bit further

[algae888]

Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning.  I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.

In all fairness Scott The Vortex does look like it takes a few hits Post 10 days. Yes it's going to strengthen and become strong now but who knows what happens as we move into January. The pattern looks real bad for the next few weeks however we do not have the same base heat as we did last year so as you alluded to in your earlier post maybe not as Torchy.

[Frank_Wx]

Unfortunately this is a negative double whammy for us. Not only will the PV intensity leading up to New Years, but it will move toward Alaska which will keep our EPO positive and PNA negative. I am seeing some positive news in the mean zonal winds, though, but would rather wait a couple of days to see how real it is.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/810862533171146753

[sroc4]

Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning.  I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.

In all fairness Scott The Vortex does look like it takes a few hits Post 10 days. Yes it's going to strengthen and become strong now but who knows what happens as we move into January. The pattern looks real bad for the next few weeks however we do not have the same base heat as we did last year so as you alluded to in your earlier post maybe not as Torchy.

I will disagree with that for now Al, but like you said LR forecasts can still change.  My biggest problem is what he is saying about what is happening in the Strat right now.  


Ladies and gentlemen, I give you support for a warming stratosphere once again.  Above is the chart for 70 MB observations which is updated every day after 00Z soundings are retrieved.  As you can see, there has been a clear cooling off of the stratosphere at 70 MB and this can be seen up through 1 MB, which is actually averaging below normal.  Over the past 5 days, I have been monitoring the warming that has started at 70 MB and this has now extended to 50 MB, and now just this morning 30 MB.  The stratospheric cooling is over.

Pay attention to this area circled on all the maps Im about to show.  Here is the 70mb map he is refering to:  Yes a small spike warmer:





No actually, the strat cooling is just beggining. And no there is not warming at 30 and 50 mb right now nor is there any immediate forecast to.  Here is the 30mb chart:  Notice it actually just started to trend back towards cold again:




Here is the 10mb chart:  Notice it is currently back towards record cold as we speak:




What he may think is warming is this next chart.  Notice it says 30mb, but also lotice this chart is for latitudes between 25N and 25S: This is the strat over the tropics.  If you look at the other two images I posted they are for 90N to 65N...the Arctic circle.  This is where it matters.  



The bottom line is there are no true strat warming events that will have any overt effects on the lower troposphere any time soon.  The forecast beyond 7-10 has all levels of the strat reconsolidate centered over the N Pole with very little elongation lasting through day 15.  Im not saying we cant have an arctic air mass move through but not because of the strat.  It would be more likely due to a strong MJO impulse.

[sroc4]

Unfortunately this is a negative double whammy for us. Not only will the PV intensity leading up to New Years, but it will move toward Alaska which will keep our EPO positive and PNA negative. I am seeing some positive news in the mean zonal winds, though, but would rather wait a couple of days to see how real it is.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/810862533171146753

Your seeing them peak and then trend weaker by about the first right?

[Frank_Wx]

Excellent Scott.

Check out today's 12z EURO 10hPa geopotential heights at D10. This thing is a beast. 2800 DM.



December 2015



Now...this is a huge IF and probably not worth posting since it has a high chance of changing, but today's french site shows upper stratospheric warming taking place in the long range. 1hPa winds are forecasted to weaken, and 30hPa geopotential heat flux (wave 1) is expected to increase. EPV at 10hPa remains weak though, so the wave 1 warming is not doing enough in the way of Rosby wave transfer. But honestly, this is likely to change. Just *some* hope.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Doesn't look great...

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https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/viewtopic.forum?t=766

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