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First snow of the season for parts of the area on Friday!

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations

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*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Empty Re: *Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EVERYONE....click this link. You will not sleep tonight.

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/ma3compjs.html

wow

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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:30 pm

There is some great radar/water vapor watching to be done right now. It goes well with my beer.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:30 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Why is it sleeting!
I font hear anythimg here ill.look outside in a few.
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Post by lglickman1 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:30 pm

Why is the NAM so different than HRRR? At this point we trust HRRR more?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:30 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Saw this graphic posted elsewhere. I really like it. The polar low's are set to phase with the STJ low and you can clearly see our HP's to the north.

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Screenshot_637.thumb.png.c43a697c8a0a9f399f2d08da2a735e93


is that why the low will go north vs ne?

Not really. I guess there's such a thing as 'too' much phasing, but it's the 250mb/500mb level that will drive this low due north

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Post by Dtone Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:30 pm

Yeah flurries here now

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Post by crippo84 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EVERYONE....click this link. You will not sleep tonight.

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/ma3compjs.html

Frank I've seen base vs composite when viewing the NWS radar. What is the difference between base and composite?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:31 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Why is the NAM so different than HRRR?  At this point we trust HRRR more?

Maybe the dynamics are too much for the NAM to handle. Literally not one other model agrees with it. But hey, who knows. Maybe NYC does rain and only get 3 inches. We'll soon find out.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:31 pm

Frank the closer the low to coast I imagine the further inland the highest winds? Are u that confident winds could near hurricane gusts when nws is saying max gusts 55 msybe 60?
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Post by Dtone Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:31 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Vinnydula wrote:Why is it sleeting!
I font hear anythimg here ill.look outside in a few.

Teterboro is reporting sleet.


Last edited by Dtone on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Aiosamoney21 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:31 pm

It's sleeting in dumont like now

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:33 pm

Dtone wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Vinnydula wrote:Why is it sleeting!
I font hear anythimg here ill.look outside in a few.

Teterboro is reporting sleet.
I don't think it's good storm is nowhere near and we are already seeing non snow precip.
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Post by Vinnydula Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:33 pm

Yep sleet mixing with snow
jmanley32 wrote:
Vinnydula wrote:Why is it sleeting!
I font hear anythimg here ill.look outside in a few.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:34 pm

According to this, the surface low is forming east of where NAM/HRRR have it.

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Sfc_con_3pres

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:35 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Frank the closer the low to coast I imagine the further inland the highest winds? Are u that confident winds could near hurricane gusts when nws is saying max gusts 55 msybe 60?

60mph maybe is the max.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:36 pm

1z HRRR snow map

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Snku_acc.us_state_lga

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Post by dkodgis Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:36 pm

At 10:30 pm here the sky is overcast but no precip yet
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Post by WeatherBob Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:36 pm

The HRRR takes the surface low from about 25 miles off the delaware coast right to eastern LI.
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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:36 pm

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Untitl10
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:According to this, the surface low is forming east of where NAM/HRRR have it.

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Sfc_con_3pres

I've been hearing this how do we know for sure and what are the implications if true
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:37 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:According to this, the surface low is forming east of where NAM/HRRR have it.

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Sfc_con_3pres
good good!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:38 pm

Current rain/snow line

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 IMG_0087.JPG.d458b6a86be12319eb0694e91da05b9f

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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Is any of this hitting the ground?

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Inxr1Kphla_h

Yes. Snowing lightly at my location. The local news is saying the snow totals will be going up in my area because it started earlier than expected. Waiting for Met to come back on with details.
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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:38 pm

If that Low forms off Hatteras in the center of that pressure fall, it really would have to make a direct due north b-line to brush the NJ coast/come directly into NYC. And it would definitely be east of Virginia Beach.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:38 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:According to this, the surface low is forming east of where NAM/HRRR have it.

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Sfc_con_3pres

I've been hearing this how do we know for sure and what are the implications if true

It looks wrong to me. Look at the graphic Ryan posted. The low is heading into NC.

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:39 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Yep sleet mixing with snow
jmanley32 wrote:
Vinnydula wrote:Why is it sleeting!
I font hear anythimg here ill.look outside in a few.

Still just snow here, no sleet

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:39 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:According to this, the surface low is forming east of where NAM/HRRR have it.

*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations - Page 9 Sfc_con_3pres
We both know these maps aren't very useful or accurate and have never been in the past.
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