*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations

syosnow94 wrote:Sroc Why do you take it as a shot at you?  To be honest I don't even know who said it because I haven't gone back to look. Relax. Truth is the NAM since last year has been the hot model and too many discounted it.

The 3km parallel that is replacing it actually has decent skill scores. Yet, they are phasing it out of development for the extended HRRR/RAP (out to 36 hours)

Change over in Westchester

The slightest bit of snow is starting to mix in with my sleet

Will this go back k to snow?

Was trying to hide from it and pretend it wouldn't come but heard the ping on the windows. Now have wind driven sleet in west orange.

Sleeting here in riverdale, so is this is for snow? We have may 3 -4 inches

28* and a mix of snow and sleet here. The sleet has really stalled accumulation here as it doesn't look much different than it was about two hours ago. I'd bet I'm still around 4". I need this to go to all snow soon because there is a heavy band headed this way and I don't want it ruined with sleet. Lol.

Major league SLIZZARD outside

This low is going to be right off the NJ coast. If it was any further west we'd all be getting rain. So if you have sleet, or in my case snow mixed with sleet be thankful. Those poor folks in Cape May and Atlantic really got the shaft.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8.0 inches 20.5 degrees.

About 1 inch per hour rates. Nice but nothing outrageous yet. Hoping that's yet to come.

Yep, CP.Not feeling the heavy band love here at all.Looks like those bands set up west of us over rb and Alex.Just light to moderate snow.Will be lucky to hit 18 by 2 PM.

Morning Everyone. Woke up to about 8 inches on the ground here in Hopatcong and Heavy Snow falling. 21 Degrees

Didn't the morning soundings show the warm layer causing the sleet now?

Wow intensity has picked up a lot in past few minutes. Keeps shifting between sleet and snow and a mix with much stronger winds. The dog was not happy going out in this!

Here's what the NWS just said:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 am: We are holding warnings as is for now though probably
downgrading blizzard in monmouth.

Just had 49 kt se wind gust from wxflow near Wallops Island
around 650A.

Tremendous fluxes developing right now as the storm will begin
realizing its excessive potential both in terms of wind,
probably coastal flooding and a band 3"/hr snowfall rates as a
band of seems to be developing fm vcnty chesapeake bay which
will extend north through Reading up to MPO by Noon.

Will not surprise to see northward sleet mix collapse sewd twd
I-95 next 3 hours as the abv freezing layer near 850MB cools,
partly by excessive uvm.

remainder below from 630 am...

Major coastal storm will continue to track northeast along the mid-
Atlantic coast today. The 00Z models trended further west with the
track, and this is also verifying per WPC/MSAS analysis. Surface
observations coupled with 88D`s indicate the changeover line moving
north into the I-95 corridor, with snow changing to sleet in Philly
as of 07Z. This line is expected to straddle the NJ Turnpike/I-95
corridor through late morning, then move east into the afternoon.
This will lead to quite a variability in snowfall across our region,
with a sharp gradient in the vicinity of the NJ Turnpike/I-95. Our
latest forecast has reduced snowfall amounts south and east of here,
generally by 1-3 inches, with little change to the north and west.
As a result, we have converted the Winter Storm Warning to a Winter
Weather Advisory for portions of southern NJ/Delmarva. The Blizzard
Warning remains in effect for portions of eastern PA and northern
NJ, where a very high impact event is unfolding. Further east along
the Atlantic oceanfront, the High Wind Warning remains posted. The
snow will gradually taper down south to north late this afternoon
and into this evening.

Hey Frank-- I know the mixing has moved a bit more north than originally thought, but A) do you put faith behind the above statement that it will trend southward in the coming hours and B) is there any potential to see mixing even in interior NNJ at this point? I'm about 1000 ft up here in Sussex and I just cant picture any mixing when it's 21 degrees here haha. Hope you're doing well!

Frank_Wx wrote:Here's what the NWS just said:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 am: We are holding warnings as is for now though probably
downgrading blizzard in monmouth.

Just had 49 kt se wind gust from wxflow near Wallops Island
around 650A.

Tremendous fluxes developing right now as the storm will begin
realizing its excessive potential both in terms of wind,
probably coastal flooding and a band 3"/hr snowfall rates as a
band of seems to be developing fm vcnty chesapeake bay which
will extend north through Reading up to MPO by Noon.

Will not surprise to see northward sleet mix collapse sewd twd
I-95 next 3 hours as the abv freezing layer near 850MB cools,
partly by excessive uvm.

remainder below from 630 am...

Major coastal storm will continue to track northeast along the mid-
Atlantic coast today. The 00Z models trended further west with the
track, and this is also verifying per WPC/MSAS analysis. Surface
observations coupled with 88D`s indicate the changeover line moving
north into the I-95 corridor, with snow changing to sleet in Philly
as of 07Z. This line is expected to straddle the NJ Turnpike/I-95
corridor through late morning, then move east into the afternoon.
This will lead to quite a variability in snowfall across our region,
with a sharp gradient in the vicinity of the NJ Turnpike/I-95. Our
latest forecast has reduced snowfall amounts south and east of here,
generally by 1-3 inches, with little change to the north and west.
As a result, we have converted the Winter Storm Warning to a Winter
Weather Advisory for portions of southern NJ/Delmarva. The Blizzard
Warning remains in effect for portions of eastern PA and northern
NJ, where a very high impact event is unfolding. Further east along
the Atlantic oceanfront, the High Wind Warning remains posted. The
snow will gradually taper down south to north late this afternoon
and into this evening.

Thank you, Frank, for the latest update.Looks like I 95 is the line of defense for mix-snow.

Doc the heavy bands will rotate in no worries its the sleet that has me concerned but still think a good 18 to high end 24 if all goes well right now 23 around 9 in Hopewell.