Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Frank_Wx]

The 00z GEFS are west of the OP which is a red flag. Everything has been trending west since 18z. Interesting EURO run tonight. We're still far away from knowing the final outcome on this one.

[jmanley32]

Well looks like so far tonight's runs have brought some hope back. Gfs came back well west cmc west and ukie is inside benchmark by cape cod. I take back my earlier statement for now.

[jmanley32]

Woo euro is well west with acnonster 953mb storm. Still has ways go to catch us full blown but like you guys said we have that time. Now let's hope it continues west or at least stays the same.

[nutleyblizzard]

Woo euro is well west with acnonster 953mb storm. Still has ways go to catch us full blown but like you guys said we have that time. Now let's hope it continues west or at least stays the same.

That was close. EPS ensembles should be interesting. Great trends tonight with all the major models. We're back in the ballgame folks. See you guys tomorrow at 12z!

[jmanley32]

Man if this storm hit us head on as the intensity the euro shows it would be more than a becs. The winds are over 110kts at 850 mb that would be wuite something to experience with snow.

[jmanley32]

Woo euro is well west with acnonster 953mb storm. Still has ways go to catch us full blown but like you guys said we have that time. Now let's hope it continues west or at least stays the same.

That was close. EPS ensembles should be interesting. Great trends tonight with all the major models. We're back in the ballgame folks. See you guys tomorrow at 12z!

can someone post the eps indie snow maps in the morning?

[rb924119]

Only reason the Euro missed OTS there was because it didn't allow the second piece to dig as far into the eastern flank of the ridge as it did earlier, and looked more like the CMC with its placement. If it had it where it was earlier, and where the NAM has it, we would have seen a repeat of that beautiful run from the 28th.

[docstox12]

NWS sniffing something out again for next week.They had taken out their earlier forecast of 30% snow probability and now it's back again!It would be great to get at least a 6 inch snowstorm out of all this cold air.At least their is a better chance as of yesterday.

[jmanley32]

The west trend continues gfs is now another big jump west giving easren areas snow now.

[Sanchize06]

The west trend continues gfs is now another big jump west giving easto ren areas snow now.

Yep and 6z GEFS are even further west than that

[skinsfan1177]

Look at these shifts

[docstox12]

Look at these shifts

Skins, GREAT depiction of the latest trend.I like it!!!!

[Carter bk]

Hope my daughter get the big snow totals that we wished for her birthday thursday.trend is our friend

[nutleyblizzard]

The west trend continues gfs is now another big jump west giving easto ren areas snow now.

Yep and 6z GEFS are even further west than that

Many of the members are now in the benchmark.

[skinsfan1177]

Its all or nothing for this storm lets keep the trend coming

[Quietace]

The west trend continues gfs is now another big jump west giving easto ren areas snow now.

Yep and 6z GEFS are even further west than that

Many of the members are now in the benchmark.

Can you give a quantitative value rather than a qualitative description. How many members are now on BM in comparison to prior runs?

[skinsfan1177]

Look at that west lean

[Carter bk]

How much more west to be in tge totals from the 28th mapput out by euro

[Frank_Wx]

Incredible trends overnight. We'll see what today holds.

[billg315]

The deeper trough in the central US seems to be bringing the storm closer to the coast, so for me the question is, are there signs that the trough will dig deep there? Not really sure what to look for in that regard (I.e. is it the strength of the cold air, the strength of the wave in the Midwest, etc?)

[amugs]

Jman are we wishcasting? LOL!!
Laid out why the pattern has the POTENTIAL to produce. Still 4 days away from models having full sampling of all energy pieces but they are trending better. Wish it was 48 hours till show time.

Okay, N EPO gets a octane boost from another PAC jet extension from our frinds in the East Asia Mountain Range aka Himalayas Region and east. This as forecasted will allow the N EPO to sustain and rebuild which will thwart or hold off the thaw we shall get no help in Jan from the PV as Frank noted at this time of current projections
GEFS from another board that has an in depth discussion going on this




SE Ridge wants to flex it's muscle but this is going to quell it. Going to be a very tight and interesting gradient. Meaning Sroc and Syo on LI could be in the 50''s whIle I'm in the 40* range and and DOC and CP are in the mid 30's range along with EPA. Time will tell

[Frank_Wx]

The deeper trough in the central US seems to be bringing the storm closer to the coast, so for me the question is, are there signs that the trough will dig deep there? Not really sure what to look for in that regard (I.e. is it the strength of the cold air, the strength of the wave in the Midwest, etc?)

I would pay attention to the ridge and the northern stream energy. This trend GIF of the last 4 GFS images at 500mb shows how the ridge has trended stronger. As a result, it's placed further west and allows the northern stream energy to dig sooner. The northern stream energy is also trending stronger. Since the ridge is further west it allows the trough to be placed more west too. The stronger northern stream energy - which is now digging into the eastern CONUS instead of progressively tracking east - allows phasing to occur with the southern branch. In future runs we want either the northern stream energy to dig faster even more or get the southern branch to slow down.

[billg315]

Thanks Frank. Well all eyes on that western ridge then. Let’s pump it up.

[amugs]

From Armando who is one of our own here and took this posting from another board explains things nicely here:

Where is our current vort maxima’s? Well our trailing shortwave (PJ) is within that North Pac gyre while our lead vort is heading towards the coast of BC, and that’ll be fully sampled by RAOB come tomorrow night. So with these great trends we’re seeing, just imagine until we get full sampling of that shortwave still way out in the pacific, SW of the Aluetians. By 0z Monday, we’ll have full sampling of both shortwaves.
Exciting times in the next 48 hours to weenie land.





Anticipation is going to be the death of the weeenies.

[skinsfan1177]

[quote="Frank_Wx"]

The deeper trough in the central US seems to be bringing the storm closer to the coast, so for me the question is, are there signs that the trough will dig deep there? Not really sure what to look for in that regard (I.e. is it the strength of the cold air, the strength of the wave in the Midwest, etc?)

I would pay attention to the ridge and the northern stream energy. This trend GIF of the last 4 GFS images at 500mb shows how the ridge has trended stronger. As a result, it's placed further west and allows the northern stream energy to dig sooner. The northern stream energy is also trending stronger. Since the ridge is further west it allows the trough to be placed more west too. The stronger northern stream energy - which is now digging into the eastern CONUS instead of progressively tracking east - allows phasing to occur with the southern branch. In future runs we want either the northern stream energy to dig faster even more or get the southern branch to slow down.[

Some other things I like to add frank also notice that the vort crashing into the west coast doesn't look as stout. Which will help the affects downstream I also noticed the WAR LOOKS to be back which could help us out

[amugs]

Skins absolutely my friend the WAR has been under modelled since the summer, why ? I haven't a clue maybe the latent heat of the Hotlantic and tell models have no roab data and have to rely of satellite imagery?

Look at the 6Z gefs
Wow some are really bad boys. Good sign. Models picking up on synoptic set up hemispherical here.

[amugs]

If the wave spacing timing is on and we keep the west coast clean from any vorts crashing in then we will have a very good to great chance. Again IF these happen. Trend is our friend.

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