Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[rb924119]

You know, CP, I'm almost wondering why this system for this weekend couldn't slide in under and behind the western Atlantic ridge and give the NW folks a surprise wintry or even snow event. It doesn't look likely at face value on current guidance, but I would almost argue that we will see a harder south and east trend with it within the next 72 hours. This is certainly an interesting case, but one in which I would say there is a substantial chance for something wintry. I'm gonna watch this carefully, and evaluate further.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Prime cutter pattern

Yeah it looks to want to shoot the gap right over our area. However, that HP in the north is fairly strong. Despite the consistency so far, it wouldn't surpsise me for it to trend a bit further south, which may be prevented from going too far due to the Atlantic high. I could see a track nearly over or just south of the NYC area, getting our northernmost members into some nasty icing possibility. However, I can also see it hold serve and track just to the north of the area. Not overly concerned about this for my area, but areas that got significantly more snow to the east and northeast should watch for flooding potential. Snowpack will be quickly melted from the next few days and this storm.

[aiannone]

12z EURO: hmmm..... lol

[crippo84]

12z EURO: hmmm..... lol

Looking like an mix/ice threat there verbatim no?

[GreyBeard]

Man what a difference a week makes. Last week at this time the place was jumpin' with excitement anticipating a nice storm. Too bad the weekend looks wet not white. Is there nothing on the horizon? Looks like a warmup for the weekend and getting colder as we start next week with a hint of some white stuff tues./wed.

[amugs]

OH SNAP PEEPS DEEP THUNDER NOT BUDGIN here - compliments of neighbor Superstorm 93

SE periphery is ice on DT



ICE ICE BABY!!

[amugs]

EPS for Tuesday WOWZA!!!

[GreyBeard]

With all due respect mugs, Deep Thunder has been around for over 20 yrs. If it was that good I think we would have heard more about it a long time ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Deep_Thunder

It's still experimental.

Even that article says it needs to be updated. You can keep the ice, I'd rather have rain.

[sroc4]

With all due respect mugs, Deep Thunder has been around for over 20 yrs. If it was that good I think we would have heard more about it a long time ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Deep_Thunder

It's still experimental.

Even that article says it needs to be updated. You can keep the ice, I'd rather have rain.

Although its been around for years its recent upgrades have brought it back to the forefront of discussion.  Weekends storm is def getting interesting for N&W folks.  Its all dependent on the Northern kicker.  Its trended faster and stronger on the euro.  The energy that is steering the system for the weekend is in part way up north in the frozen tundra of Canada and the arctic and a piece of it is still over the Pac.  12z runs tomorrow will be interesting.  Its close to winter weather for N&W peeps.  Not a blockbuster but wintry conditions with some accum possible.

[amugs]

With all due respect mugs, Deep Thunder has been around for over 20 yrs. If it was that good I think we would have heard more about it a long time ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Deep_Thunder

It's still experimental.

Even that article says it needs to be updated. You can keep the ice, I'd rather have rain.

Really did not know this - WSI has been using this as a new model the past 8 months.
Listen I dont make the weather just interpreter maps to teh best of my ability here.
Weak Nina patterns bring ice so it isn't he first not the last time we will see such.

[weatherwatchermom]

EPS for Tuesday WOWZA!!!

mugs what does this map mean?

[GreyBeard]

Really did not know this - WSI has been using this as a new model the past 8 months.
Listen I dont make the weather just interpreter  maps to teh best of my ability here.
Weak Nina patterns bring ice so it isn't he first not the last time we will see such.[/quote]

And your enthusiasm is noted and appreciated. I just did a little digging as you seem to be referencing Deep Thunder quite often recently. Hey, the more tools in the toolbox the better off you are, right?

@sroc,appreciate your explanation too. Hope the N&W guys and gals get the goods, they are long overdue.

[algae888]

Starting to get very interesting for a Friday night Saturday morning specially for Northwest areas. Look at the temperature contrast on all the models single digits in Upstate New York and interior New England and in the 50s in the city. The trend has been no phase of the two systems so the southern system is now weaker which should allow the cold air to drain in to the south and east. how far remains to be seen But as Scott says still have another 24 hours to get the right sampling. But that is some brutal cold coming in after the storm could be in the single digits again Sunday morning

[jmanley32]

Wait I thought the temps were going to continue to rise now back to single digits onsun? No thaw?  Verbatim I see a major ice storm threat that keeps shifting south.  Also seeing a period of high winds, do they always verify NO BUT as with the blizzard frank was surprised it was as windy as it was...I still got no props for getting that right lol

[amugs]

EPS NICE SHIFT EAST!!
ALEX I'LL TAKE THE L OFF THE DEL MAR VA FOR 1000!!


Cp and Doc and Damian now uknow why I was excited the other night. I smell the cold press. With all of this low level arctic ait sitting to our north all it takes is a slight atmospheric adjustment and the flood gates or cold gates open this year unlike the past two.

Also CFSV2 forecasting along with GFS a perturbation of the Polar Vortex that could.lead to another bought, round of arctic intrusion comes  through in February.

[amugs]

EPS for Tuesday WOWZA!!!

Mom it shows a coastal low that would bring us a plow able snowstorm if it verifies. Tuesdayish is the time frame

mugs what does this map mean?

[jmanley32]

OH SNAP PEEPS DEEP THUNDER NOT BUDGIN here - compliments of neighbor Superstorm 93

SE periphery is ice on DT



ICE ICE BABY!!

that's a serious ice storm.

[amugs]

Off twitree

[dkodgis]

Mugs, I see your point. I am starting to get a whiff of it, too.

[Snow88]

0z Nam is coming in more south

[Snow88]

18z Deep Thunder

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Setup always looked this possibility existed but early in the week no models seemed to want to make the leap of faith. If this keeps trending positive the N & W could be very nasty Friday night and Saturday morning. The rest of tonight and tomorrow’s 12Z will have my interest. Would like to see what the shorter range models say tomorrow too.

I like the colder trend but at the same time I could so without an ice storm. Hate the stuff.

A sleet storm like we had a couple of years ago I’ll take. The 3-4 inches of sleet stayed around for weeks.

[hyde345]

Setup always looked this possibility existed but early in the week no models seemed to want to make the leap of faith. If this keeps trending positive the N & W could be very nasty Friday night and Saturday morning. The rest of tonight and tomorrow’s 12Z will have my interest. Would like to see what the shorter range models say tomorrow too.

I like the colder trend but at the same time I could so without an ice storm. Hate the stuff.

A sleet storm like we had a couple of years ago I’ll take. The 3-4 inches of sleet stayed around for weeks.

Yea, but it was an absolute bitch to shovel.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Setup always looked this possibility existed but early in the week no models seemed to want to make the leap of faith. If this keeps trending positive the N & W could be very nasty Friday night and Saturday morning. The rest of tonight and tomorrow’s 12Z will have my interest. Would like to see what the shorter range models say tomorrow too.

I like the colder trend but at the same time I could so without an ice storm. Hate the stuff.

A sleet storm like we had a couple of years ago I’ll take. The 3-4 inches of sleet stayed around for weeks.

Yea, but it was an absolute bitch to shovel.

Yeah Hyde it was tough. The snow blower would not handle it. Four inches of that felt like the weight of 20 inches of snow. But the water content and density made it seem impervious to sun.

[docstox12]

Well it's our resident experts VS the NWS as they have no mention at all of any frozen precip Friday night into Saturday morning.I love these scenarios.Anyhoo, hope some of the snowpack survives the major assault about to come.

[jmanley32]

Guess no one saw the 00z euro snow map into next week huh love those clown maps but they are fun to look at. Only benefits our nw folks msinly have not seen the storm.that causes this output but if ur around Albany north prepare for 60 inches lol

[Frank_Wx]

Put out an update on the weekend storm in the January thread.

I do see the snowstorm threat showing up on guidance for the middle of next week. We'll keep an eye on it. Interesting evolution.

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