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Long Range Thread 16.0

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:17 pm

The South American model is waaay west.

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jimv45 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:18 pm

Still a lot of winter to go let's hope a big storm is in our future and please not a rainstorm.

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:18 pm

Oh now we are stretching things what the heck is the Sam? Please post a pic how far west on a model we have never spoken of.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:18 pm

The lack of any blocking is killing us. Pattern is too progressive.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:21 pm

jimv45 wrote:Still a lot of winter to go let's hope a big storm is in our future and please not a rainstorm.
oh you can bet it'll be a big rainstorm. We will see snow but I bet our thaw will be above avg precip in rain.
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:24 pm

The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:26 pm

billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO


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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:27 pm

billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10
All hail our new king! The South American model! facepalm
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:28 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10
All hail our new king! The South American model! facepalm
just what I was thinking never in njstrong have we mentioned this model. Lol we are really a sad bunch of weenies
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Post by crippo84 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:32 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10
All hail our new king! The South American model! facepalm

Hilarious!!
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:39 pm

I hear the Mongolian model is a coastal bomb. Smile
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:40 pm

hyde345 wrote:I hear the Mongolian model is a coastal bomb. Smile
Lmao
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:40 pm

If the euro is west I'd say maybe the other models were hiccups it is possible the euro was right from that first weenie run it has been the so called king and as dunzoo reminded me in banter one model run isn't a trend so let's pray this swings back west to 12z or even further at 06z and 12z tomorrow.
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SoulSingMG Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:43 pm

Usually when I refresh the page and see two new pages of a thread, it's because of good news. This is quite the contrary. Mad
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:44 pm

billg315 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:I hear the Mongolian model is a coastal bomb. Smile
Lmao
This is too much LOL,
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:44 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Usually when I refresh the page and see two new pages of a thread, it's because of good news. This is quite the contrary. Mad
yep ya got that right.
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:46 pm

just havin' a little fun guys and gals, there is a storm signal and that's all that matters, enjoy the weekend and Happy New Year y'all!

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:49 pm

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO


The thing I worry about Alex is that the SAM is programmed in the Southern Hemisphere where air flow is reversed (in the “upside down”). So I hope that doesn’t mean when it’s waay west it’s actually east? Hmm.
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:52 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO


The thing I worry about Alex is that the SAM is programmed in the Southern Hemisphere where air flow is reversed (in the “upside down”). So I hope that doesn’t mean when it’s waay west it’s actually east? Hmm.

Well you are forgetting about the quasi-rotational reverse flow that adjusts for North American systems so with that in mind this is actually a west trend

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:59 pm

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO


The thing I worry about Alex is that the SAM is programmed in the Southern Hemisphere where air flow is reversed (in the “upside down”). So I hope that doesn’t mean when it’s waay west it’s actually east? Hmm.

Well you are forgetting about the quasi-rotational reverse flow that adjusts for North American systems so with that in mind this is actually a west trend

The SAM was upgraded last month and the quasi rotational reverse flow has been adjusted into the model. However it has never been adjusted for the sun angles this time of year in the southern vs northern hemisphere and that's why the warm bias. The map should be adjusted and 10C subtracted, this will show quite the snow storm with those adjustments.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:00 am

is anyone go be serious and see the euro or should we not bother? I have no access anymore so I rely on you guys to post images.
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:02 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO


The thing I worry about Alex is that the SAM is programmed in the Southern Hemisphere where air flow is reversed (in the “upside down”). So I hope that doesn’t mean when it’s waay west it’s actually east? Hmm.

Well you are forgetting about the quasi-rotational reverse flow that adjusts for North American systems so with that in mind this is actually a west trend

The SAM was upgraded last month and the quasi rotational reverse flow has been adjusted into the model. However it has never been adjusted for the sun angles this time of year in the southern vs northern hemisphere and that's why the warm bias. The map should be adjusted and 10C subtracted, this will show quite the snow storm with those adjustments.

I agree to an extent. I wouldn’t say subtract 10C bc of the latest sunspots we just noticed. More like subtract 9.7C

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:19 am

If your bailing now because of the 00 z then you are not allowed back into the discussion when thenwind shield wipers swing back the other way. Just saying. Your in or your out.


Last edited by sroc4 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:37 am; edited 1 time in total

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:24 am

GEFS are west.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:36 am

sroc4 wrote:If your bailing now because of the 00 z then you are not allowed back into the discussion when then wind shield wipers swing back the other way. Just saying. Your in or your out.
I'm not leaving for two reasons. First of all lately the models have been improperly showing the northern stream too weak, only to correct itself once proper sampling is made. Second, on numerous occasions coastal lows have trended westward inside 48 hours. Just a couple of important details to keep mind of.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:37 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:GEFS are west.
Hmm now see that was my hope, i remember you guys always saying if ensembles are west then operational is junk.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:37 am

sroc4 wrote:If your bailing now because of the 00 z then you are not allowed back into the discussion when then wind shield wipers swing back the other way. Just saying. Your in or your out.
Just had a momentary irritation im back and will stick it out through.
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