Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **amugs** Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:41 pm

Feb is climtaologically our snowiest month. Will we have a godzilla chance Jon. I would say there is a possibility duentobthe warm water of the Atlantic.
Warm up seems to be two days warm, colds hits in between. Not some long drawn out torch. Canada is frigid. MJO seems to be stuck in phase 2 due to the convection false up in that region as per JB shows. IF THIS holds and doesn't go to null it will be interesting to see the downstream effete in the WPO and EPO regions.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:43 pm

Saturday is going to be interesting for the interior and NWNJ could be a big snow and ice storm. Lots to go neither this but euro went from 50''s (after Frank and Mike relinquished the joystick( to mid/upper 30''s for NYC metro and around 30 and upper 20''s for ruburb peeps.like hyde, cp,doc,rb,RB etc.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:44 pm

amugs wrote:Syarudaybis going to be interesting for the interior and NWNJ could be a big snow and ice storm. Lots to go neither this but euro went from 50''s (after Frank and Mike relenquished the joystick( to mid/upper 30''s for NYC metro and around 30 and upper 20''s for ruburb peeps.like hyde, cp,doc,rb,RB etc.

Not sure what day this is but when you start making typos like this it usually means you’re excited and ther are improvements are on the horizon.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:01 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:Syarudaybis going to be interesting for the interior and NWNJ could be a big snow and ice storm. Lots to go neither this but euro went from 50''s (after Frank and Mike relenquished the joystick( to mid/upper 30''s for NYC metro and around 30 and upper 20''s for ruburb peeps.like hyde, cp,doc,rb,RB etc.

Not sure what day this is but when you start making typos like this it usually means you’re excited and ther are improvements are on the horizon.

Syarudaybis (See-ARE-u-day-bis)

We have to come up with a strict definition for this word. lol!

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:Syarudaybis going to be interesting for the interior and NWNJ could be a big snow and ice storm. Lots to go neither this but euro went from 50''s (after Frank and Mike relenquished the joystick( to mid/upper 30''s for NYC metro and around 30 and upper 20''s for ruburb peeps.like hyde, cp,doc,rb,RB etc.

Not sure what day this is but when you start making typos like this it usually means you’re excited and ther are improvements are on the horizon.

Syarudaybis (See-ARE-u-day-bis)

We have to come up with a strict definition for this word.

The sad thing is I can now understand Mugsy's syntax,LOL.

Sounds interesting all right if this temp range Mugsy states for the interior evidences itself!

by **amugs** Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:07 pm

OHHHHHHHHHHHHH LMAO x1000x - yuo guys kill me.

Yes Doc I am excited for you guys in the interior for this one - could be a big storm if the cold air can press SE by about 25 miles or so - heck I'll take 50 please Alex!!

GFS - warm bias here
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 24 Gfs_T2m_neus_19

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 24 Gfs_T2m_neus_19

GEFS if true would bring a good storm to the interior

Euro - big shift - can we get another one?
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 24 Output_1ftUT6.gif.b288477cc8376004e58272bfcc66b991

Temps

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 24 5a53c1b9d4f89_ecmwf_t2m_neng_21JAN812Z120.png.26660fbc5a12e2d3284497e8f3d84d87

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 24 5a53c1c2705ce_ecmwf_t2m_neng_22JAN812Z126HOURS.png.dbf00fb2753fef287cdb402f840dad0b

Deep Thunder from 33Rain
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 24 MgWeb_WRF_20180108-120000_ANEUS_EMPAS_F01220000_PgeneralSfcPres_R15km.jpg.acd3666b3cf3f4c53fd841e41b9a39b1

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 24 MgWeb_WRF_20180108-120000_ANEUS_EMPAS_F01220000_PgeneralSfcPres_R15km.jpg.acd3666b3cf3f4c53fd841e41b9a39b1

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:16 pm

Mugs. Where can I get my hands on the Deep Thunder?

by **amugs** Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:46 pm

Sroc my brother let me talk to my hook on this. VentrI censuses it off WSI site. I'll pm you the info

by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:46 pm

sroc4 wrote:Mugs. Where can I get my hands on the Deep Thunder?

That sounds vaguely dirty.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:42 pm

Pretty sure he meant "Saturday is" ahahaha but I'll wait for confirmation from the man that said it before assuming that's correct lmao

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:45 pm

Upon catching up on the replies I missed since yesterday, it was indeed meant to say what I thought, as I saw the original post was edited ahaha I guess all the practice deciphering texts (as bad if not worse at times, believe it or not aha) from my two best friends over the last number of years is useful after all lmfaoooo

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:34 pm

amugs wrote:Sroc my brother let me talk to my hook on this. VentrI censuses it off WSI site. I'll pm you the info

Please do. Thanks Al

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:35 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Mugs. Where can I get my hands on the Deep Thunder?

That sounds vaguely dirty.

It does

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:30 am

The EURO last night was not enthused for snow at all, including N&W folks. I do not see how cold air wins here even with a low that tracks south of us. Expect rain and hope for the best Smile

by Guest Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:02 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO last night was not enthused for snow at all, including N&W folks. I do not see how cold air wins here even with a low that tracks south of us. Expect rain and hope for the best

Screw the global Frank. They are useless. We are coming up on 72 hours. What does King NAM say?

by **dkodgis** Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:07 am

But it does look like a heavy, soaking rain so I think we will see the snow pack melt with some flooding possible

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:09 am

dkodgis wrote:But it does look like a heavy, soaking rain so I think we will see the snow pack melt with some flooding possible

I haven't given up for us N & W folk though, not looking great but not throwing in the towel either.

by Guest Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:09 am

dkodgis wrote:But it does look like a heavy, soaking rain so I think we will see the snow pack melt with some flooding possible

You know if it does rain we will ALL get over 2”. Just the way it is. Been like effin Siberia for two weeks and now we get a LP moving south of us dropping 2” qpf. Evil or Very Mad

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:10 am

syosnow94 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:But it does look like a heavy, soaking rain so I think we will see the snow pack melt with some flooding possible

You know if it does rain we will ALL get over 2”. Just the way it is. Been like effin Siberia for two weeks and now we get a LP moving south of us dropping 2” qpf.

I repeat what I said to Damian, I haven't given up for us N & W folk though, not looking great but not throwing in the towel either.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:16 am

I actually really like the look of the ensembles, mainly EURO and GEM over the next 15 days; not because of what they show for the next 15 days, though. Instead, I really like the implications of the pattern they depict as we head into the first 7-10 days of February, which is when I think our Siberian winter will make its return Wink

I think I may see another substantial SSWE on the horizon.......

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:32 am

rb924119 wrote:I actually really like the look of the ensembles, mainly EURO and GEM over the next 15 days; not because of what they show for the next 15 days, though. Instead, I really like the implications of the pattern they depict as we head into the first 7-10 days of February, which is when I think our Siberian winter will make its return I think I may see another substantial SSWE on the horizon.......

RB, do you see any hope at all for late Friday night Saturday morning, for the north and west people to get some snow?

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:21 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I actually really like the look of the ensembles, mainly EURO and GEM over the next 15 days; not because of what they show for the next 15 days, though. Instead, I really like the implications of the pattern they depict as we head into the first 7-10 days of February, which is when I think our Siberian winter will make its return I think I may see another substantial SSWE on the horizon.......

RB, do you see any hope at all for late Friday night Saturday morning, for the north and west people to get some snow?

I honestly haven't even been paying any attention to it these last several days, so I cannot offer any opinion. However, if time permits me today, I will take a gander and revert with my thoughts Smile

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:51 pm

Prime cutter pattern

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 24 Gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_16

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Prime cutter pattern

Oh well that doesn't look good, a man can dream can't he? Thanks Frank

by **frank 638** Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:56 pm

lee goldberg has snow for next tues and tues nite my fingers are crossed for a big one

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:47 pm

You know, CP, I'm almost wondering why this system for this weekend couldn't slide in under and behind the western Atlantic ridge and give the NW folks a surprise wintry or even snow event. It doesn't look likely at face value on current guidance, but I would almost argue that we will see a harder south and east trend with it within the next 72 hours. This is certainly an interesting case, but one in which I would say there is a substantial chance for something wintry. I'm gonna watch this carefully, and evaluate further.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:45 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Prime cutter pattern

Yeah it looks to want to shoot the gap right over our area. However, that HP in the north is fairly strong. Despite the consistency so far, it wouldn't surpsise me for it to trend a bit further south, which may be prevented from going too far due to the Atlantic high. I could see a track nearly over or just south of the NYC area, getting our northernmost members into some nasty icing possibility. However, I can also see it hold serve and track just to the north of the area. Not overly concerned about this for my area, but areas that got significantly more snow to the east and northeast should watch for flooding potential. Snowpack will be quickly melted from the next few days and this storm.

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