Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[amugs]

Okay this is pertty incredible in my book since I and many oterhs have vbeen taking about a pattern flip so to speak to an Above Normal regime in the means/overall temps wise.

There are many mechanisms that are in conflict and muted or overriding this. It is a complex set up that starts in the Indian Ocean region with the MJO that is in a strong phase 2 into 3 next week. As Sroc pointed out and Dr,. Cohen wrote about this week we have a good attack of the PV that is being forecasted to elongate and stretch out like it did on December for latter Januray but more so into earl February.

WE have PAC wave breaks lined up again that woudl help rebuild the EPO down teh road and a poleward extension of teh PNA. One thing that is evident is a frigid Canada that will remain frigid and snowy.

[amugs]

THIS IS SOMETHING BY THE GFS

[jmanley32]

All The EPS are bad for the coast for most part sharp cutoff I-287 north. Tons of time this seems now not wed but Thurs/Fri?

[Guest]

Not that it means crap this far out but NWS not enthused AT ALL for next week. Meanwhile they have Red Sox Suck getting crushed

[jmanley32]

Could we expect anything less? Look at the flooding disaster the area had up there they need a break bring it here.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Starting late next week, a west coast trough looks to make its presence which is bad news for snow lovers in the east. Not only that, the ensembles and EURO weeklies have this aforementioned trough lasting for weeks.  If we don't get snow next week, it may be a while before we get another shot.  Perhaps in late February the ridge out west returns to put us back in the snow chances.  But that's not a guarantee.

Late February????

You really do enjoy dabbling on the dark side. Syos has a nice room ready for you Mikey, take him up on his offer before the dark side consumes you.

[dkodgis]

Ladies and Gentlemen, and children of all ages. What does Tuesday look like in terms of snow?

[weatherwatchermom]

Ladies and Gentlemen, and children of all ages. What does Tuesday look like in terms of snow?

Iwas wondering the same thing this morning, but no one really weighing in...I am guessing slim...

[Frank_Wx]

Late Tuesday into Wednesday there may be a period of light snow. At the moment looks like minor accumulations. Maybe a couple of inches. The baroclinic zone is too far east which takes the low pressure system that develops out to sea, essentially. The cold is back next week. But storm wise, does not look like much at this time. Keeping the SCI at 5% for now.

[Guest]

Late Tuesday into Wednesday there may be a period of light snow. At the moment looks like minor accumulations. Maybe a couple of inches. The baroclinic zone is too far east which takes the low pressure system that develops out to sea, essentially. The cold is back next week. But storm wise, does not look like much at this time. Keeping the SCI at 5% for now.

Another EURO fail. I say we ban that model from this forum.

[weatherwatchermom]

Late Tuesday into Wednesday there may be a period of light snow. At the moment looks like minor accumulations. Maybe a couple of inches. The baroclinic zone is too far east which takes the low pressure system that develops out to sea, essentially. The cold is back next week. But storm wise, does not look like much at this time. Keeping the SCI at 5% for now.

do you see anything over the horizon???

[Frank_Wx]

Late Tuesday into Wednesday there may be a period of light snow. At the moment looks like minor accumulations. Maybe a couple of inches. The baroclinic zone is too far east which takes the low pressure system that develops out to sea, essentially. The cold is back next week. But storm wise, does not look like much at this time. Keeping the SCI at 5% for now.

do you see anything over the horizon???

Not really. After the cold passes next week it looks like there will be one or two storms that cut to our west. I do not see enough blocking to keep these storms from cutting. So we may go into another transient warm spell.

[Snow88]

Nam, GFS and CMC with some nice improvements tonight with wave 1

It's too early to give up on any of the waves . We have seen big shifts very close to an event this season.

[Snow88]

0z German is west

2+ inches for NYC with more in eastern SNE

[amugs]

Nam, GFS and CMC with some nice improvements tonight with wave 1

It's too early to give up on any of the waves . We have seen big shifts very close to an event this season.

I totally concur. Real busy day.
Nice shifts an dimptovements. Th LP in these situations like to ride the Arctic front. Also the WAR has been underestimatedone ALL frigging season. It will help push the LP west. How far remains to be seen . Like to see more improvements as we head into manna through 12z. This has been the MO of the stormsame all winter.
Not saying a major storn here folk's at this time but a way to get winter back.

[Snow88]

GEFS look way better than past runs

[RJB8525]

NWS has currently Tuesday less than one inch and Tuesday night chance of snow

[Snow88]

12z Nam

Pivotal weather snowmap has about 0.50-1 inch for the City with 3 + inches towards eastern LI and SNE

West of 6z though

The 2nd wave is also closer to the coast

[amugs]

Two system set up it looKS to be a clipper that give us light snow and then a coastal. How close can this get is in question. If the WAR is under modelled then the storm will come further west. Again how much further remains in question. But the models all season have been poor at seeing this. Don't ask me why at thistime, maybe rb or someone else can exolain.

[sroc4]

You can see there are two camps right now.  Bottom line is this.  Like Mugsy said system one comes in as a weak system likely to drop light accumulations beginning Tuesday.  Bu the second wave is possible to be a more developed system.  Here are the two camps with the latter system.  Look west at the kicker on the GFS vs the NAM.  By 12z Wed its being Modeled much stronger on the GFS.  The result of this is to knock down the PNA ridge and keep the entire flow moving west to east keeping a positive tilted trough and energy strung out.  




As you can see on the NAM its much weaker and strung out N to S. The result is to keep the PNA ridge intact allowing the N stream energy to dig and actualy cutoff to an ULL.  As you can see by hr 84 on both GFS and NAM the 546 thickness line is well off the SE coast on the GFS vs up into NE on the NAM.  With higher heights along the coast it allows for the surface LP to come up closer to the coast.  






CMC is like the GFS but the Euro is closer to the NAM by hr 72.  I would have to lean towards the more progressive soln for the second system for now, but as we've seen many times over this season trends under 48-72 hrs are not unusual.  Hopefully we can at least pull a few inches from Tuesday.

[aiannone]

JB still likes 4-8” from DC to Red Sox Suck

[aiannone]

RGEM agrees with JB’s 4-8”

[SoulSingMG]

[snowday111]

What is the timing of this event, if it comes to fruition?

[aiannone]

Upton just updated and now has 1-3” for the island Tuesday night

[amugs]

Basically Ukie, Euro, EPS, RGEM, CMC have thisbticking west as all of our seasonal trends have gine. The 1st wave amplifies and when it does it will strengthen the WAR and push this sicker west that is the coa st al. We have two storms the lier and then the coastal. We want the clipper to amplify so it strengthens the Ar.
Now some EPS individual members have that amplifing to the degree where it stalls the storm off the NJ coast which would cause a sharp cut off N& w and the city again. If kle set up but very intruining and exciting at the same time.

Off to my sons hi key game check back after the game peeps.
Great trends at h5 today.

[sroc4]

Like I mentioned earlier the 12zNAM and euro close off H5 whereas the rest do not. 18z NAM just went to the progressive soln. As seen by the stronger kicker knocking down the PNA ridge. I would not count on wave 2 as the pattern just simple does not call for it. This would be for wed to Thursday. It’s not impossible but not likely. IMO

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