Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[jmanley32]

GEFS are west.

Hmm now see that was my hope, i remember you guys always saying if ensembles are west then operational is junk.

[jmanley32]

If your bailing now because of the 00 z then you are not allowed back into the discussion when then wind shield wipers swing back the other way. Just saying. Your in or your out.

Just had a momentary irritation im back and will stick it out through.

[sroc4]

All kidding aside with 4+days left a lot can change still. Keep in mind they could cont to change for the worse. It will be what I will be. Cautious optimism.

[jmanley32]

if anyone is stay up for euro and its a good run please post pics.

[nutleyblizzard]

NavGem came in west. Takes a track just outside the BM.

[jmanley32]

Wow navgem is a bomb 966 mb just outside. Come on euro!!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Hello! I'm back, it's been somewhat of a very hard last year and a half or so for me but I won't bore you with details. Boy oh boy I don't remember a December like this in, well as long as I can remember. This bitter cold is unreal. Didn't even get our typical one or more early cement-heavy low ratio snows in my neck of the woods at least. Just fluff usually seen in Jan or Feb. In terms of this (4th) storm, been lurking on Accuwx and as of tonight, here as well as viewing the model runs.

Personally, the setup doesn't thrill me, the potential is there, but the axis is too far east IMHO for it to ride up the coast and bury us. I want the low inland until it's over the Carolinas, I don't like the fact it's forming way east off the coast of Florida. It's painful because it has potential to be a monster. But I see it playing out at best, as coming near to just east of the BM from the south, potentially getting LI and eastern NE (Mass, the Cape, ect.) into some heavy snow bands. Perhaps some lighter snows into NJ, the HV, and the general periphery. More towards the coast. There's lots of time for this to change of course, but with models nudging back east tonight it seems we've maybe hit the limit on how far west it could go with the setup which is near BM, but due to approach angle we'd like it inside.

[NjWeatherGuy]

CMC Ensembles

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm

Couple big hits, but most just out of reach, slightly better than the 0z GFS ENS suite.

[jmanley32]

Looks like euro stayed the course but s bit faster.

[crippo84]

Hello! I'm back, it's been somewhat of a very hard last year and a half or so for me but I won't bore you with details. Boy oh boy I don't remember a December like this in, well as long as I can remember. This bitter cold is unreal. Didn't even get our typical one or more early cement-heavy low ratio snows in my neck of the woods at least. Just fluff usually seen in Jan or Feb. In terms of this (4th) storm, been lurking on Accuwx and as of tonight, here as well as viewing the model runs.

Personally, the setup doesn't thrill me, the potential is there, but the axis is too far east IMHO for it to ride up the coast and bury us. I want the low inland until it's over the Carolinas, I don't like the fact it's forming way east off the coast of Florida. It's painful because it has potential to be a monster. But I see it playing out at best, as coming near to just east of the BM from the south, potentially getting LI and eastern NE (Mass, the Cape, ect.) into some heavy snow bands. Perhaps some lighter snows into NJ, the HV, and the general periphery. More towards the coast. There's lots of time for this to change of course, but with models nudging back east tonight it seems we've maybe hit the limit on how far west it could go with the setup which is near BM, but due to approach angle we'd like it inside.

Welcome back buddy. You're a missed voice in this forum!

[nutleyblizzard]

I can't post maps but the EURO came west. Word is decent snow reaches NYC. Can someone confirm?

[sroc4]

Hello! I'm back, it's been somewhat of a very hard last year and a half or so for me but I won't bore you with details. Boy oh boy I don't remember a December like this in, well as long as I can remember. This bitter cold is unreal. Didn't even get our typical one or more early cement-heavy low ratio snows in my neck of the woods at least. Just fluff usually seen in Jan or Feb. In terms of this (4th) storm, been lurking on Accuwx and as of tonight, here as well as viewing the model runs.

Personally, the setup doesn't thrill me, the potential is there, but the axis is too far east IMHO for it to ride up the coast and bury us. I want the low inland until it's over the Carolinas, I don't like the fact it's forming way east off the coast of Florida. It's painful because it has potential to be a monster. But I see it playing out at best, as coming near to just east of the BM from the south, potentially getting LI and eastern NE (Mass, the Cape, ect.) into some heavy snow bands. Perhaps some lighter snows into NJ, the HV, and the general periphery. More towards the coast. There's lots of time for this to change of course, but with models nudging back east tonight it seems we've maybe hit the limit on how far west it could go with the setup which is near BM, but due to approach angle we'd like it inside.

Welcome back Tom. Glad you have your feet back under you

[sroc4]

I can't post maps but the EURO came west. Word is decent snow reaches NYC. Can someone confirm?

Confirmed. H5 actually looked great! Puts my back yard in Godzilla+ territory

[nutleyblizzard]

I can't post maps but the EURO came west. Word is decent snow reaches NYC. Can someone confirm?

Confirmed. H5 actually looked great!  Puts my back yard in Godzilla+ territory

Yep. 12-18 for central/eastern LI. I really hate those 24hr panels. Looked like a total miss.

[jmanley32]

I can't post maps but the EURO came west. Word is decent snow reaches NYC. Can someone confirm?

Confirmed. H5 actually looked great!  Puts my back yard in Godzilla+ territory

Yep. 12-18 for central/eastern LI. I really hate those 24hr panels. Looked like a total miss.

anything make it back to NYC area? Snow maps in banter? Glad came west leaves some hope.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I can't post maps but the EURO came west. Word is decent snow reaches NYC. Can someone confirm?

Confirmed. H5 actually looked great!  Puts my back yard in Godzilla+ territory

Thanks. You appear to be in the better area with the highest chances for a big hit out of most of us for this one. Barring any extreme shifts west of course, but considering we're not in fantasy territory and nearly SR, I'd say that's unlikely.

[jmanley32]

I can't post maps but the EURO came west. Word is decent snow reaches NYC. Can someone confirm?

Confirmed. H5 actually looked great!  Puts my back yard in Godzilla+ territory

Thanks. You appear to be in the better area with the highest chances for a big hit out of most of us for this one. Barring any extreme shifts west of course, but considering we're not in fantasy territory and nearly SR, I'd say that's unlikely.

first off welcome back we were wondering where ya went. Second I don't agree it seems at least in the past year we have seen some major jumps west within 48 hrs and we have double that so I feel it's possible to make many more strides west. Or yes of course east.

[jmanley32]

I can't post maps but the EURO came west. Word is decent snow reaches NYC. Can someone confirm?

Confirmed. H5 actually looked great!  Puts my back yard in Godzilla+ territory

Yep. 12-18 for central/eastern LI. I really hate those 24hr panels. Looked like a total miss.

anything make it back to NYC area that is such a tease if that's the cut off that's like 50 miles east of me.? Snow maps in banter? Glad came west leaves some hope.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I can't post maps but the EURO came west. Word is decent snow reaches NYC. Can someone confirm?

Confirmed. H5 actually looked great!  Puts my back yard in Godzilla+ territory

Thanks. You appear to be in the better area with the highest chances for a big hit out of most of us for this one. Barring any extreme shifts west of course, but considering we're not in fantasy territory and nearly SR, I'd say that's unlikely.

first off welcome back we were wondering where ya went. Second I don't agree it seems at least in the past year we have seen some major jumps west within 48 hrs and we have double that so I feel it's possible to make many more strides west. Or yes of course east.

You're certainly right, many of the storms we've gotten have made sneaky trends back west in the last few days. This is what I will be watching for too, but those were generally Miller Bs and smaller Fropas from what I remember. It doesn't seem to work as well with Miller As, besides maybe March last year which made an almost last minute shift NW but that matched climo. Everything about this season so far with the oppressive cold and this progged setup is unusual, but unless the trough goes sharply negative which is not shown rn, but not impossible, I am having a hard time seeing this ride up close to the coast.

[rb924119]

Tom, welcome back!!!!! Glad to see you are doing ok and are ready to track again!!! There's no nicer way that I can think of to make up for lost time than to track this system right into all of our backyards

[NjWeatherGuy]

Tom, welcome back!!!!! Glad to see you are doing ok and are ready to track again!!! There's no nicer way that I can think of to make up for lost time than to track this system right into all of our backyards

Oh man would that be nice, especially after this cold, would be a pity for it to go to waste. I don't know about all of you but it's a little much for me. I need to change my oil and keep procrastinating on it because everytime I step outside I'm like "nope..."

[rb924119]

Tom, welcome back!!!!! Glad to see you are doing ok and are ready to track again!!! There's no nicer way that I can think of to make up for lost time than to track this system right into all of our backyards

Oh man would that be nice, especially after this cold, would be a pity for it to go to waste. I don't know about all of you but it's a little much for me. I need to change my oil and keep procrastinating on it because everytime I step outside I'm like "nope..."

You're preaching to the choir about that, my friend hahahaha never too much or too cold for me!!! Sounds like you need yourself a workshop!!!! That would solve your problem; nice and heated, body sleds to wheel under your vehicle with instead of cardboard on rocks.......yeahhhhhhh then you'd be in business! lmao

[jmanley32]

Gfs is a smidge west I think from 00z but doesn't look great. Expert analysis needed. BTW anyone have surface and or snow maps from euro?

[MattyICE]

https://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2017_12/A53C6E7F-4FFF-4244-BDBD-5623B5792EC7.jpeg.f6b490e3e61dd72aae2bde59014edf40.jpeg

[rb924119]

Gfs is a smidge west I think from 00z but doesn't look great. Expert analysis needed. BTW anyone have surface and or snow maps from euro?

I'll be out of the game through the first series of 12z's today, and only sporadically checking in after that. Sorry for my absence last night also, but I was working until 3am lol I've been doing chores ever since, now I'm gonna pump some iron, shower and head home to Pa for the evening aha after some contemplation, though, I can honestly see arguments for trends in both directions, and to be completely truthful, I don't know if I can call out what I think this will do over the next 48 hours. There are so many conflicting signals, it all boils down to how an individual weights each factor in his or analysis and prediction of a trend west versus east, or even no trend at all. I guess if I absolutely HAD to make a call, without as much wishcasting or cynicism as possible.........I think we see a resurgence of the westward trend. To what degree, I have no idea, but I do think that's where I'm leaning right now based on HOW I WEIGHT ALL OF THE FACTORS IN PLAY. Take that as you will.

[weatherwatchermom]

Gfs is a smidge west I think from 00z but doesn't look great. Expert analysis needed. BTW anyone have surface and or snow maps from euro?

I'll be out of the game through the first series of 12z's today, and only sporadically checking in after that. Sorry for my absence last night also, but I was working until 3am lol I've been doing chores ever since, now I'm gonna pump some iron, shower and head home to Pa for the evening aha after some contemplation, though, I can honestly see arguments for trends in both directions, and to be completely truthful, I don't know if I can call out what I think this will do over the next 48 hours. There are so many conflicting signals, it all boils down to how an individual weights each factor in his or analysis and prediction of a trend west versus east, or even no trend at all. I guess if I absolutely HAD to make a call, without as much wishcasting or cynicism as possible.........I think we see a resurgence of the westward trend. To what degree, I have no idea, but I do think that's where I'm leaning right now based on HOW I WEIGHT ALL OF THE FACTORS IN PLAY. Take that as you will.

thanks rb safe travels

[docstox12]

NWS hedging their bets at this juncture with the OTS and full hit coastal ATM so it's still a possibility.Seems to me we have been in a dry pattern since the torch October.That seems to be translating into a cold-dry pattern now from that warm-dry.

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