Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[amugs]

End of teh week - bookend storms possibly!





Monday close

[Snow88]

GFS has a coastal snowstorm for Monday also

[sroc4]

Models have 3 more chances to snow coming up. Thursday into Friday, Sunday into Monday and possibly Next week Wed into Thursday. Buckle up.

[weatherwatchermom]

Models have 3 more chances to snow coming up.  Thursday into Friday, Sunday into Monday and possibly Next week Wed into Thursday.  Buckle up.

music to our ears..and chances are Murphy's law will happen...we are down to one car until March 30th(husband ordered a new truck and we sold my car in 5 days!! ) so Chauffeur Jo...will be on the roads...lol

[skinsfan1177]

Giddy up

[rb924119]

Well that didn't take long; February 4th-6th has me fired up. I expect a significant snow threat during this period, which would also signify the true pattern change. Still won't be posting much, but I definitely think we see a widespread decent system for our board during this period. Game on!

[amugs]

Lets do this Friday storm and then Monday shall we??

UKIE


Monday
It will come up teh coast - big PNA spike incoming

[rb924119]

40th Anniversary of the great Blizzard of '78 coming up February 5th-7th. Not saying we are looking at something of that magnitude, but the time period is interesting nonetheless

[amugs]

40th Anniversary of the great Blizzard of '78 coming up February 5th-7th. Not saying we are looking at something of that magnitude, but the time period is interesting nonetheless

Hey lets get this first my man - one storm at at time kid

[

[aiannone]

Great video by Bernie again. Man he teaches you a lot!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/two-additional-snow-threats-for-northeast/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4?SearchForm-input=two%20additional%20snow%20threats%20for%20the%20northeast

[lglickman1]

Are we worried about temperatures?

[rb924119]

40th Anniversary of the great Blizzard of '78 coming up February 5th-7th. Not saying we are looking at something of that magnitude, but the time period is interesting nonetheless

Hey lets get this first my man - one storm at at time kid

[

Not really a fan of the first system, aside from maybe far eastern sections that could see some enhancement, similar to the system from today, but the second one looks much more likely to have bigger snows for much, if not all of oirnforecast area.

[SENJsnowman]

which one is the r/s snow line: darker solid blue, lighter solid blue, or easternmost dotted blue line? And what do the other two indicate?

[Guest]

which one is the r/s snow line: darker solid blue, lighter solid blue, or easternmost dotted blue line?  And what do the other two indicate?

Dark blue is the 32 degree line. I’ve learned that it means nothing this far out

[aiannone]

which one is the r/s snow line: darker solid blue, lighter solid blue, or easternmost dotted blue line?  And what do the other two indicate?

Dark blue is the 32 degree line.  I’ve learned that it means nothing this far out

Correct. for example last night. If you look at how far the 32 degree line was projected to be, you'd think rain for sure, however other factors such as evap or dynamic cooling come into play. So for this event you can see it has plenty of cold air to the north and also in the upper levels that it can bring in, assuming there is heavy enough precip. So basically if we get some good precip rates with this event, then it should snow. 18z NAM would support this theory.

Pay more attention to set up, the environment the storm is running into, as well as that 0c line which indicates 850mb freezing level. if that's above freezing, ya got a problem likely regardless of rates lol.

[algae888]

nws disco... for thurs night...
PCPN type forecast is tricky due to thermal profiles being
marginally supportive of wintry weather both near the surface and
aloft. With the bulk of the PCPN falling during nighttime and with
good lift present, thinking is that this can offset a SW-W flow in
the mid levels in the evening before the flow becomes more NW
overnight. Have therefore sided with colder guidance for PCPN types.
Primarily snow NW of the city, and a mix of rain and snow elsewhere
before around midnight before changing to all snow everywhere by
daybreak on Friday. The current forecast has 1 to 2 inches of snow
accumulation through Friday morning for the city and most of NE NJ
with 2-4 inches elsewhere. Will need to see if future model runs
trends higher in qpf in response to the upper jet which would in
turn increase confidence in at least advisory level snowfall
for a good portion of the area.

[aiannone]

[jmanley32]

nws disco... for thurs night...
PCPN type forecast is tricky due to thermal profiles being
marginally supportive of wintry weather both near the surface and
aloft. With the bulk of the PCPN falling during nighttime and with
good lift present, thinking is that this can offset a SW-W flow in
the mid levels in the evening before the flow becomes more NW
overnight. Have therefore sided with colder guidance for PCPN types.
Primarily snow NW of the city, and a mix of rain and snow elsewhere
before around midnight before changing to all snow everywhere by
daybreak on Friday. The current forecast has 1 to 2 inches of snow
accumulation through Friday morning for the city and most of NE NJ
with 2-4 inches elsewhere. Will need to see if future model runs
trends higher in qpf in response to the upper jet which would in
turn increase confidence in at least advisory level snowfall
for a good portion of the area.

when all is posting we know things are looking up ; ) hope we can get a advisory snow. But I'd really like one more Godzilla please!!

Preferrably Sunday cuz I gotta drive and I dunno when to leave. Psych syo that was for you totally kidding I really can drive in any weather I just hate the traffic snow brings. People around here cannot drive in the snow. Well there are exceptions.

[SENJsnowman]

which one is the r/s snow line: darker solid blue, lighter solid blue, or easternmost dotted blue line?  And what do the other two indicate?

Dark blue is the 32 degree line.  I’ve learned that it means nothing this far out

Correct. for example last night. If you look at how far the 32 degree line was projected to be, you'd think rain for sure, however other factors such as evap or dynamic cooling come into play. So for this event you can see it has plenty of cold air to the north and also in the upper levels that it can bring in, assuming there is heavy enough precip. So basically if we get some good precip rates with this event, then it should snow. 18z NAM would support this theory.

Pay more attention to set up, the environment the storm is running into, as well as that 0c line which indicates 850mb freezing level. if that's above freezing, ya got a problem likely regardless of rates lol.

Thanks for the feedback. Believe me, I have learned a ton from both of you guys about how to 'properly' use the model info, especially in the last couple of weeks how you both use the surface maps at this range, but always in unison with the upper air data.

I figure this far out, I just want to use the 32* line as baseline to see if temp is something that should be monitored if the other factors for a storm all come together. In that respect, it seems like it is something to keep an eye.

To be honest, it's all I can do now to read the surface maps. I think I get what the 850mb means: the lower pressure is found at a higher altitude. So the higher altitude has more reliable info. That and I know it means a lot to Bernie...

It's kind of frustrating cuz I think I understand some things at this point, but half of the time I like can't even figure out how to say what I know or ask an intelligent question about what I don't...so I just sit here and pay attention to you all a bit more.

[amugs]

GEFS NW overall look - good to see - this one can be a 3" storm for NNJ and on EAST. Can we get another NW tick out of this - certainly hoping for my LHV brethren.

[amugs]

Bookend storms Friday and Monday here

[amugs]

This is a MASSIVE EPO block Full lattitude holy SNIKEY DIKEY!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest]

This is a MASSIVE EPO block Full lattitude  holy SNIKEY DIKEY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nice amugs. I hear you made a cameo appearance in the thread about today’s snow on page 9. Congratulations.

[rb924119]

00z SUITE IS BRINGING THE GOODS FOR THE 4th-6th BABAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!! I DONT CARE IF I GOTTA STRAP INTO THE GOD DARN GIMBLE BELT TO REEL THIS SUCKER IN, IM DOING IT FOR US NORTHWESTERNERS!!!!!! COME TO PAPPA!!!!

[jmanley32]

00z SUITE IS BRINGING THE GOODS FOR THE 4th-6th BABAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!! I DONT CARE IF I GOTTA STRAP INTO THE GOD DARN GIMBLE BELT TO REEL THIS SUCKER IN, IM DOING IT FOR US NORTHWESTERNERS!!!!!! COME TO PAPPA!!!!

yeah gfs verbatim screws entire coast while everyone else gets a roidzilla. thank goodness its a week out.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The coast historically is heading into their best period for big storms. I posted the chart below in the weather statistics thread several days ago, but now that that the Feb 2nd through Feb 15th period is upon us it's worth another look.



As you can see from the above the 5 week period from late January through most of February is a prime time in NYC for 8+ inch snows. but the 2nd through 15th is prime time. Let's hope history repeats itself.

[sroc4]

Quick up date on the first threat Thursday into Friday.  It appears more and more likely that it will end up as a light event associated with the passing of a frontal boundary keeping precip and snow totals light instead of developing a LP along the frontal boundary then exits the coast south of the area which would enhance precip amts and give us more of a mod event.  The reason being is the southern energy is about 12hrs too slow with the respect to the trough axis.  In the images below I have circled the main energy of interest and placed an X where it should be to get a better system.  You want this energy just out in front of the trough axis.  Instead its behind.  This prevents a surface LP from developing until its well off the coast; much too late to help.  As you can see on the surface map below the precip looks light in response to weak warm air advection up and over the stalled frontal boundary.  The window on this one is closing fast but its not quite closed just yet.  Minor accumulations are possible (C-2" max) with the passing of the frontal boundary for most if not all our coverage area if the final soln ends up similar to what we see here.  However, if the trough axis slows just a little and or the southern max speeds up just a little on the models this could change.  While the energy associated with the trough is pretty much over land, the southern energy that would be our system isn't on shore just yet so Ill keep an eye on this through the 12z tomorrow for any shifts in the timing mentioned above.   As far as the Sunday into Monday it is def looking like an interior special but the coast isn't dead yet.  There are multiple pieces, much more complex a set up than this first one, the energy of which is not onshore so stay tuned for that one.  

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