Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The coast historically is heading into their best period for big storms. I posted the chart below in the weather statistics thread several days ago, but now that that the Feb 2nd through Feb 15th period is upon us it's worth another look.



As you can see from the above the 5 week period from late January through most of February is a prime time in NYC for 8+ inch snows. but the 2nd through 15th is prime time. Let's hope history repeats itself.

[sroc4]

Quick up date on the first threat Thursday into Friday.  It appears more and more likely that it will end up as a light event associated with the passing of a frontal boundary keeping precip and snow totals light instead of developing a LP along the frontal boundary then exits the coast south of the area which would enhance precip amts and give us more of a mod event.  The reason being is the southern energy is about 12hrs too slow with the respect to the trough axis.  In the images below I have circled the main energy of interest and placed an X where it should be to get a better system.  You want this energy just out in front of the trough axis.  Instead its behind.  This prevents a surface LP from developing until its well off the coast; much too late to help.  As you can see on the surface map below the precip looks light in response to weak warm air advection up and over the stalled frontal boundary.  The window on this one is closing fast but its not quite closed just yet.  Minor accumulations are possible (C-2" max) with the passing of the frontal boundary for most if not all our coverage area if the final soln ends up similar to what we see here.  However, if the trough axis slows just a little and or the southern max speeds up just a little on the models this could change.  While the energy associated with the trough is pretty much over land, the southern energy that would be our system isn't on shore just yet so Ill keep an eye on this through the 12z tomorrow for any shifts in the timing mentioned above.   As far as the Sunday into Monday it is def looking like an interior special but the coast isn't dead yet.  There are multiple pieces, much more complex a set up than this first one, the energy of which is not onshore so stay tuned for that one.  

[Guest]

I’m not as knowledgeable scientifically as some on here, but I think I know enough that I may have noticed something in the models that is a bit disconcerting. If you look at the position of the PV in my opinion it’s a little too far west to have a good storm track for us. I believe the short waves that rotate around it have too much time to round the base and therefore hug the coast putting us on the warm/mix side of things for the next few weeks. I think this upcoming pattern benefits areas from rat 81 areas west to the Great Lakes. [b]this is not just me reacting to the forecast for Sunday/Monday. This is an observation. Thoughts[/b]

[Guest]

After I made my post I checked in at another weather forum I lurk on occasionally just like CP does. They are all posting about how the current phase 6 MJO is in record strong territory and therefore will delay the transition to phase 8. The result is coastal runners and cutters for the next two weeks. It literally is the scientific explanation of what I posted before I even read it. Ironic!

[crippo84]

After I made my post I checked in at another weather forum I lurk on occasionally just like CP does.  They are all posting about how the current phase 6 MJO is in record strong territory and therefore will delay the transition to phase 8.  The result is coastal runners and cutters for the next two weeks.  It literally is the scientific explanation of what I posted before I even read it.  Ironic!

This would align with Math's President's Day weekend prediction of the ideal pattern change

[rb924119]

I’m not as knowledgeable scientifically as some on here, but I think I know enough that I may have noticed something in the models that is a bit disconcerting.  If you look at the position of the PV in my opinion it’s a little too far west to have a good storm track for us.  I believe the short waves that rotate around it have too much time to round the base and therefore hug the coast putting us on the warm/mix side of things for the next few weeks.  I think this upcoming pattern benefits areas from rat 81 areas west to the Great Lakes.  [b]this is not just me reacting to the forecast for Sunday/Monday.  This is an observation.  Thoughts[/b]

The true pattern change was not expected to occur until the 7th-10th anyway, at least in my opinion, which would pretty well match that. We are now seeing signs of this as the MJO is now entering Phase 7, and the SOI IS NOW BEGINNING TO CRASH AGAINST THE BASE STATE. Seven to ten days from now, the effects from the MJO's progression into the second half of Phase 7 and the SOI crash will be seen here in the form of our true pattern change and troughing over the East take a deep breath, and relaxxxxxxxx. Don't worry, be happy.

[Guest]

I’m not as knowledgeable scientifically as some on here, but I think I know enough that I may have noticed something in the models that is a bit disconcerting.  If you look at the position of the PV in my opinion it’s a little too far west to have a good storm track for us.  I believe the short waves that rotate around it have too much time to round the base and therefore hug the coast putting us on the warm/mix side of things for the next few weeks.  I think this upcoming pattern benefits areas from rat 81 areas west to the Great Lakes.  [b]this is not just me reacting to the forecast for Sunday/Monday.  This is an observation.  Thoughts[/b]

The true pattern change was not expected to occur until the 7th-10th anyway, at least in my opinion, which would pretty well match that. We are now seeing signs of this as the MJO is now entering Phase 7, and the SOI IS NOW BEGINNING TO CRASH AGAINST THE BASE STATE. Seven to ten days from now, the effects from the MJO's progression into the second half of Phase 7 and the SOI crash will be seen here in the form of our true pattern change and troughing over the East take a deep breath, and relaxxxxxxxx. Don't worry, be happy.

Thanks for trying to give me confidence but after enduring a two week torch and hearing about February producing and then seeing two big rain storms forecast for the first week I’m not having any of it. Sucks. Period. (This is where Amugs bans me for complaining )

[amugs]

I’m not as knowledgeable scientifically as some on here, but I think I know enough that I may have noticed something in the models that is a bit disconcerting.  If you look at the position of the PV in my opinion it’s a little too far west to have a good storm track for us.  I believe the short waves that rotate around it have too much time to round the base and therefore hug the coast putting us on the warm/mix side of things for the next few weeks.  I think this upcoming pattern benefits areas from rat 81 areas west to the Great Lakes.  [b]this is not just me reacting to the forecast for Sunday/Monday.  This is an observation.  Thoughts[/b]

The true pattern change was not expected to occur until the 7th-10th anyway, at least in my opinion, which would pretty well match that. We are now seeing signs of this as the MJO is now entering Phase 7, and the SOI IS NOW BEGINNING TO CRASH AGAINST THE BASE STATE. Seven to ten days from now, the effects from the MJO's progression into the second half of Phase 7 and the SOI crash will be seen here in the form of our true pattern change and troughing over the East take a deep breath, and relaxxxxxxxx. Don't worry, be happy.

Thanks for trying to give me confidence but after enduring a two week torch and hearing about February producing and then seeing two big rain storms forecast for the first week I’m not having any of it.  Sucks.  Period.  (This is where Amugs bans me for complaining )

No just go into hibernation out there on the snow capitol of the NE region and see you next winter. Simple.

[Snow88]

AO is freefalling

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

PNA looks good

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[amugs]

Euro weeklies went from Wowza to OMG are fn kidding me bad!!
Math got a hold of them LOL!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

AO is freefalling

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

PNA looks good

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Speaking of Free Falling.

https://youtu.be/1lWJXDG2i0A

[docstox12]

AO is freefalling

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

PNA looks good

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Speaking of Free Falling.

https://youtu.be/1lWJXDG2i0A

CP, my favorite Tom Petty song.I remember that vid on MTV.Remember the early 80's when MTV hit the air,LOL.Classic stuff!!!!

Hope the song translates into teleconnections that bring an area wide blockbuster blizzard here so EVERYBODY in our broadcast area can enjoy it !

[Guest]

Doc I hope you’re right, but man have I become pessimistic in the last 24 hours. I can’t complain being that I’m already at my normal winter snowfall here after January on the coast. But man with all the hype for a blockbuster cold and very snowy February now turning into rainstorm after rainstorm and according to some guidance, warm weather returning around Valentines I’m starting to get really worried that this may be it. Until I see Frank change the scroll I’ll hold out hope but doesn’t look good

[docstox12]

Doc I hope you’re right, but man have I become pessimistic in the last 24 hours.  I can’t complain being that I’m already at my normal winter snowfall here after January on the coast.  But man with all the hype for a blockbuster cold and very snowy February now turning into rainstorm after rainstorm and according to some guidance, warm weather returning around Valentines I’m starting to get really worried that this may be it.  Until I see Frank change the scroll I’ll hold out hope but doesn’t look good

Jimmy, up here I'm thinking I have a good shot at some snow Sunday-Monday being colder and more elevation.I am always optimistic but from my ancient memory comes the 1960-1961 winter with 3 major snowstorms and days of subfreezing cold from early December to early February.Then, the  obligatory reversion to the mean happened and after the February 3-4 1961 snowstorm, it turned warmer with barely any snow for the rest of that winter.Hope that does not happen this year.It just seems this year the pattern can't get into something that can produce a major snowstorm area wide.The long range crew is optimistic!!Be thankful you got the 16 inch and the surprise snow the other day!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Do not give up on February. Between a VERY active MJO and Strat warming, models are going to struggle big time. You will see huge changes run to run. I did not expect February to look great until around the 6th anyway. We'll see what happens.

[rb924119]

THANK YOU!!!! For those worried about yesterday's EPS and the Weeklies last night, do yourself a favor and check the newest EPS and see how drastically it changed, but also how much it corrected BACK TOWARD WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING. PATTERN RECOGNITION IS GOING TO BE INEXPLICABLY MORE IMPORTANT THAN MODELS THESE NEXT TWO WEEKS. TRUST THE METHODS, PEOPLE. PLEASE. Ok, time for Ray boy to go to bed now lol

[amugs]

Do not give up on February. Between a VERY active MJO and Strat warming, models are going to struggle big time. You will see huge changes run to run. I did not expect February to look great until around the 6th anyway. We'll see what happens.

IFWT!!!!!!
IN FRANK WE TRUST!!!!!!!!

Where was this a month ago??

[sroc4]

Love is in the eye of the beholder.  The pattern has def shifted.  We are no longer in the "Thaw" of the past 2 weeks.  We have multiple snow threats in front of us...at least 1-2 but now I think more likely 3 between the 3rd-10th.  Do not mistake this for a forecast for 2-3 definite events, but rather chances for snow all the way to the coast.  Im still thinking overall between now and the 10th will be BN temp wise but not as profound as I originally thought.   I think a "good" (not great) pattern is def in front of us as there will be multiple "threats" for snow over the next 10-12days.  The way it looks the interior stands to do better but this doesnt mean the coast is dead.  This is my personal opinion when defining a "good" pattern.   We will see if they work out.  




I will admit I personally underestimated just how potent the MJO pulse was going to be as it rounded 5 into 6 then eventually 7 (GFS def led the way there), and its overall effects it is having on the pattern.  We are still in warm phases yet we really haven't been that warm.  37-40* along the coast is hardley warm.  The trop forcing is leading to a set up such that even though we have the Trop PV displaced south towards the H Bay it is a broad based long wave trough rather than a sharp trough digging into the CONUS and interacting more with the Pac and/or ST Jet.  Even though our EPO is headed negative over the next few days the ridge axis out west is shifted a tad too far off the WC of NA.  The PNA remains neg so we have a more zonal flow off the SW CONUS and the +NAO is keeping a progressive flow off the EC.  All of this equates to what?  



The Polar jet will be sending spokes of arctic s/w southward while the Pac jet will be sending s/w entering the NW CONUS/WC Canada diving underneath.  Because overall we don't have a great PNA ridge in the W CONUS and because we have a progressive flow off the EC we have a set up that will all be about timing.  If we have an amplified Pac s/w and or an interaction between polar s/w and Pac s/w too early we will likely get the system to hug the coast and or be an apps runner as there is no real mechanism to push the system east off the coast first before coming up.  That said this could also lead to initial over running events with the cold air in place followed by change over/mixing due to the SW flow out ahead of our systems, esp along the coastal plain, before returning the cold as the system passes by.   I know this is not a "great" pattern, and some may not even call it a "good" pattern, but again Love is in the eye of the beholder. With so much cold air just to the north IMHO this is a good pattern in that it offers snow chances if the timing is right. With so much energy in the upper level we will likely not see the final solns in modeling until inside 2-3 days at best with most if not all of these chances.   God grant me the serenity to accept the things I can not change. It is what it is folks. Accept it and embrace it. Beyond mid month there are rumblings of the pattern breaking down and getting worse. Hold the phone on that one. With the MJO forecasted to weaken drastically, the SOI forecasted to flip from strong positive to neg (which it already has--"cattle prod to the atmosphere") https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/, and with major disruption to the start PV on the way the LR pattern is anything but a lock. Models will likely go into their typical chaos mode until we get closer.

[sroc4]

Latest discussion about the strat from Earthlight and Isotherm:

Earth light:

The stratosphere is set to undergo a disruption now over the next 7 to 14 days and it is becoming increasingly possible that this will be a significant event. The ECMWF, GFS and GEFS are forecasting a tremendous Wave 2 anomaly and a complete split of the stratospheric polar vortex at multiple levels. We have seen a sudden jump to this idea on the latest forecast model guidance and it is especially impressive to see this depiction on the GFS and GEFS guidance. The GEFS members all forecast a complete zonal wind reversal and the large piece of the stratospheric polar vortex breaks off over North America.  

This could potentially be related to the impressive and record breaking Phase 7 MJO, as suggested by Wheeler/Hendon et al 2004, where warmer anomalies on the lower polar stratosphere can suddenly and rapidly develop as a result of constructive interference between mid latitude circulations and anomalous convection in the tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean.  

The latest observations and model guidance show a well coupled troposphere/stratospheric wave relationship through the tropopause. It appears increasingly possible to me that we will see a significant disruption and/or split of the stratospheric polar vortex - and while it remains to be seen if it will technically reach SSW definition, the stratospheric polar vortex looks likely to be displaced over North America after the split occurs with anomalous warming near the poles and Arctic regions at multiple stratospheric levels.







Isotherm:

Nice post John, and I don't necessarily disagree with anything written there. Just a few comments about stratospheric warming in general:

 

1. All stratospheric events -- displacements, splits, are highly idiosyncratic and disparate in terms of evolution.

2. Each stratospheric event will have a different impact in the troposphere, depending upon depth of split/orientation of vortices, and tropospheric-stratospheric coupling. There have been wave-2 induced split events that were poor propagators in the past.

3. Case example. January 24th, 2009 was our last w-2 induced split event, modeled fairly similarly to the evolution on the GEFS for mid month. The month following this major split event did not produce severe winter weather in the United States. Below are the February 2009 temp departures. Temperatures actually warmed after the split event, relative to January 2009's cold departures. There was no effect on the NAO modality, and the tropospheric AO only became mildly negative.

4. The follow-up wave 2 event as discussed, via tropospheric precursor and associated potent tropical forcing (through latent heat release induced rossby wave alterations and concomitant breaking, as John noted) is occurring.

The question is: a) Will wave amplitudes be as high and persistent as evinced by the GFS?, and further, B - will it propagate effectively, subsequently inducing large scale tropospheric alterations.

Given the magnitude of the MJO wave in this case, I feel fairly confident we will disturb the SPV sufficiently to attempt an official SSW event. If this occurs, it would likely be February 15th-18th based upon historical data of geopotential height preconditioning via wave 2. This is a multi-step equation though, and results are stochastic/non-linear. Even if we have a split in this period, my point is - there's no way to unequivocally state that severe winter weather will result, just yet.

[Guest]

I see what you guys are saying, but as I said yesterday, and granted I’m not as good at this as you guys.......The PV is too far west for us. I think the short waves that rotate around have too much time to round the base and then hug the coast or cut.. We need the PV further s and e to benefit us with a favorable track. Hope I’m wrong

[sroc4]

I see what you guys are saying, but as I said yesterday, and granted I’m not as good at this as you guys.......The PV is too far west for us.  I think the short waves that rotate around have too much time to round the base and then hug the coast or cut.. We need the PV further s and e to benefit us with a favorable track.  Hope I’m wrong

Jimmy you are correct in that observation and is like a direct result of the ridge axis being too far west like a mentioned above. We’ll see

[amugs]

Our best long range forecaster!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest]

Punxsutawney Phil is 1000% better than any of the models we watch.

[RJB8525]

Punxsutawney Phil is 1000% better than any of the models we watch.

Staten Island Chuck predicted early spring lmao

[amugs]

East based nina is pretty much done as per ocean analysis on Tropical Tidbits - not a good sign going forward but not the end all of be all.

[amugs]

Dougie Fresh with his insight:

The PNA and EPO link very nicely on the 8th or so, sending a beautiful area of high pressure down into the CONUS, setting up a large temperature gradient for the 10th threat. This large, sprawling area of surface high pressure is not something we have for the 4-5th and 7-8th storms, so this is a good thing.

It will get quite cold in the CONUS for a few days as that HP sets in. But the Pacific Jet extension afterwards looks to be inevitable, leading to a more zonal pattern and warmth across the CONUS, while we reshuffle things in the Stratosphere. It's still not really a warm pattern in the East, though -- but it could have an "ugly" look for a couple of days.

[frank 638]

Our next chance of snow for everyone according to the Goldberg will be next Saturday. For our Wednesday storm. Expect all rain with temperatures in the 50 SMH

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