Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[mwilli5783]

happy new year to everyone in here i've been monitoring u guys since i joined the group especially now with this storm coming(west trend keep it going)

[Frank_Wx]

Euro says happy new year

[Frank_Wx]

[skinsfan1177]

Euro looking great

[Frank_Wx]

[Frank_Wx]

We're inside 90 hours now. I want to see more significant changes by this point. Long Island is in a good spot at the moment for a Mothrazilla event

[mikeypizano]

I want it more to the west!

[lglickman1]

The lp center is way off East no?

[billg315]

Frank I know you hate imby questions and I’m loathe to ask one that might seem as such, but I think this is broader than just my back yard. If the current Euro held serve, would areas of NJ west of NYC still get a decent snowfall or would we be looking at one of those hard cutoffs where LI gets buried and maybe decent snow at the coast but central/northern NJ gets flurries?

[Frank_Wx]

Frank I know you hate imby questions and I’m loathe to ask one that might seem as such, but I think this is broader than just my back yard. If the current Euro held serve, would areas of NJ west of NYC still get a decent snowfall or would we be looking at one of those hard cutoffs where LI gets buried and maybe decent snow at the coast but central/northern NJ gets flurries?

The latter, which is nightmarish

[mikeypizano]

Frank I know you hate imby questions and I’m loathe to ask one that might seem as such, but I think this is broader than just my back yard. If the current Euro held serve, would areas of NJ west of NYC still get a decent snowfall or would we be looking at one of those hard cutoffs where LI gets buried and maybe decent snow at the coast but central/northern NJ gets flurries?

The latter, which is nightmarish

If thats the case I won't even see a flurry... Frank, do you think its possible for it to come west enough for me to get some decent snow?

[billg315]

My concern is something like, (I originally said Jonas but that’s not it. Can’t remember the name. Maybe Nemo who knows)., there’s a line just east of NYC on the radar that the snow shield just can’t cross.

[Guest]

We're inside 90 hours now. I want to see more significant changes by this point. Long Island is in a good spot at the moment for a Mothrazilla event

What about when you weigh in all the other models Frank? I know you’re a EURO fan but...

[skinsfan1177]

It seems that models are having tough time with which Low to focus on. Any input

[SoulSingMG]

I do not like this double barrel low crap. It's confusing the models as well.

[mikeypizano]

I do not like this double barrel low crap. It's confusing the  models as well.

A fart in California confuses them...

[SoulSingMG]

I do not like this double barrel low crap. It's confusing the  models as well.

A fart in California confuses them...

[jmanley32]

Frank can this still make sig trends west still or is long islsnd go be the extent of anything great?

[hyde345]

My concern is something like, (I originally said Jonas but that’s not it. Can’t remember the name. Maybe Nemo who knows)., there’s a line just east of NYC on the radar that the snow shield just can’t cross.

That's a valid concern. I have same concern in hudson valley.

[mikeypizano]

My concern is something like, (I originally said Jonas but that’s not it. Can’t remember the name. Maybe Nemo who knows)., there’s a line just east of NYC on the radar that the snow shield just can’t cross.

That's a valid concern. I have same concern in hudson valley.

Same concern for Wyoming Valley but thats prob a long shot unless it does a Stella...

[Guest]

I Remember when for the big blizzard the models were “chasing convection offshore” whatever that means and the short range models led by the NAM sniffed it out

[lglickman1]

Is this a possible similar situation or different setup?

[rb924119]

UK is about 50-100 miles east of the BM

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

To this amateur's admittedly untrained eye, that double barreled low solution seems to be a model struggling with the setup more than anything else. I assume it is physically possible but just seems more unlikely than that asshat's snowicane post from last night.

[docstox12]

I do not like this double barrel low crap. It's confusing the  models as well.

That map brings back a bad memory from February 1978 where my area in NJ was supposed to get 20 inches.It did start like gang busters but at the 9 or so inch mark, stopped cold.That was it.Apparently, what had happened was that the low "transferred" out to another one more east and RI and Mass got pounded by the Providence Blizzard which gave them 30 inches plus.This map reminds me of that.

[aiannone]

[sroc4]

I’ll reiterate. This is an extremely complex set up. Do not be surprised to see trends to cont up inside of 24-48hrs. There is so much vorticity. Like I said this morning where will the main LP Center be?  Will there be a large IVT axis or one consolidated low?  And how much earlier can we get phasing?  12hrs earlier and everything shifts west.  Northern stream energy will not be properly sampled for another 24-30hrs at the earliest. Look where the northern energy currently sits.

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