Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[rb924119]

rb.  Early February was forecasted by most to be below normal temps and snow chances every few days.  Scott’s post says we will be normal to above normal temps through the middle of February.  That leaves about 4 weeks for most of the board excluding the N and W crew (who deserve more snow, except for CP.  but my flame thrower will be waiting for him anyway) until spring.  With the way the forecast has changed 180 degrees for early February (see Frank removing the scroll about many significant snow chances) I for one am incredibly skeptical that we don’t see things continue to trend negatively.  

I’ll remain hopeful but pessimistic

To your first point:

1. We have had two CHANCES snow and it's only February 4th. Unfortunately, the coastal plain has wound up on the warm side of them with the NW winning out.

2. If you look at the averages so far for the month, I believe you will see that the region is generally near to slightly below normal. With it being only four days in, and the expected upcoming pattern, I think a below-normal February with respect to temperatures is VERY LIKELY, with the largest departures from the mean in the second half of the month. As for snow chances in the future, here comes another one on a Wednesday and then next weekend again, with similar frequency progged thereafter given the projected pattern.

3. Based on the two above points, the outlooks have mainly verified so far, even if not in your backyard, and look very likely to continue to verify.

4. Some mets, including myself, Armando, and Frank (if I recall correctly), were not, nor have ever been, on board with the idea that the true pattern change would occur by this point. We always favored at least until the 7th-10th ofnthe month before it locked in and were adamant that the opening week or so would be a transitional step-down BACK into the winter pattern.

To your second point, quoted directly from Scott's discussion:

"For now we will have to settle for a "mediocre" pattern.  There will be several chances at snow, and temps will likely avg N to BN overall I believe for the first 15-20days of Feb.  But the snow chances def favor interior sections as the pattern is such that its more likely that we see storm tracks that warm sector the area out ahead of the storm with possible front end snows followed by mixing and or rain along the coastal plain; then return to cold BN temps after it all passes.  This of course doesn't mean that we cant get a decent system come together for the coast as well if the Pac and Polar s/w's are timed just right."

To your third point, the above means you should go back and check your math, because like your snow totals, it seems to be off :p

And to your fourth and final point, the forecast has not changed at all, at least from my perspective, but maybe from the others you have followed which I am unaware of, they have. I cannot comment on said other forecasts.

[algae888]

for the wens and next weekend system what the models are starting to show is better HP placement which should allow for more confluence to our north and hence a colder solution. something to keep monitoring over the next few days.

[Guest]

Ok rb I give. You win. You bitch-slapped me pretty good there. I hope you’re right. I don’t get the snow totals reference though

[rb924119]

Ok rb I give.  You win.  You bitch-slapped me pretty good there.  I hope you’re right.  I don’t get the snow totals reference though

I meant no disrespect by my reply; I hope it did not come across that way, or even come across as being "stern". If it did, I sincerely apologize. I was just stating facts in response. I hope I'm right too, buddy, believe me; the taste of crow gets old after a while, and I'd hate to have to sit through another meal of with egg on my face ahahaha and it was referring to your calculation of only having less than four weeks of actual winter left lmao

[aiannone]

18z NAM a little colder for wednesday

[amugs]

HELOOO N&W

[amugs]

From Dougie Fesh Pro Met
If you want a front end thump, this is the SLP position to do it. The HP off the Mid-Atlantic coast is much less emphasized, and the 1040mb HP to our northeast provides a classic NE low-level cold drain. Notice how the higher isobars bend back to the Southwest. The NE low-level cold drain coming off of New England is also a dry source region without downsloping, so you can keep lower dewpoints without sacrificing moisture.

[aiannone]

HELOOO N&W

A lot of that is sleet. Looks like a front end thump of 1-3" then over to 40's and rain

[amugs]

Hey Alex stop poo pooing the N&W on the snow since you aint getting much - let them have theirs LOL!! Nice front end hump of about 3-6" NNJ and LHV more N&W. faster is actually better so the HP is in place a bit longer.

[aiannone]

Hey Alex stop poo pooing the N&W on the snow since you aint getting much - let them have theirs LOL!! Nice front end hump of about 3-6" NNJ and LHV more N&W. faster is actually better so the HP is in place a bit longer.

LOL, i'm not! Just letting you know that it's not all snow haha, though yes, NW could do well on the front end, and it wouldnt take much further SE shift to get mostly snow! Still have time for trends!

[aiannone]

0z GFS AND CMC much colder and SE for Wednesday. Mostly all snow for NW folks and snow to rain back to a solid period of snow for NYC east

[aiannone]

CMC GFS RGEM

[aiannone]

Upton:
The model trend is ewd with the low, with both the
GFS and ECMWF now bringing the low over NYC and LI around 00Z
Thu. For the ECMWF, this is 148 mi SE of the position 24 hours
ago. Another shift of this magnitude would cause the low to
track invof the benchmark Wed ngt. Because of this, the HWO
will continue to be highlighted for Orange county, with room for
expansion should this trend continue.

[dkodgis]

Any sense of timing for Wed? Am or pm?

[amugs]

Germany!!

[amugs]

Vday storm before we AN temp wise

[aiannone]

CMC ens

[Guest]

Vday storm before we AN temp wise

I’ll believe it when I see it Al. Is your post implying we go above normal temperatures starting after V Day?

[Guest]

As of right now it doesn’t get any worse for us snow weenies.  A storm every three days dropping an avg if 1” qpf on our area for 2 weeks straight during what should be the coldest part of winter and fir most of the board it’s rain.  The worst thing weather wise you could ever read. Hopefully the far NAND W crew get into some but for the rest of us........ The best would be after all these storms, we get the cold back but no srorms

[Snow88]

I wonder if the precip will come in faster than modeled. That will help the whole area, especially the coast. I do think that this will be a mostly rain event for the coast but a mix inland and mostly snow for the far interior areas near Albany.

It all depends on where the low ends up tracking.

[RJB8525]

I'm surprised no thread about the 7th yet

[aiannone]

RGEM is still cold. Who will win lol

[aiannone]

CMC

[jimv45]

Just like Yesterday with the ice when the forecast called for rain I expect this to go colder with more snow this time will see.

[sroc4]

Separate thread for the 7th posted

[sroc4]

A great article regarding defining of the "Polar Vortex"  Stratosphere vs Troposphere.  I encourage everyone to read.  

https://medium.com/@StuOstro/science-and-semantics-of-the-polarvortex-ae73d6fe08c3

[amugs]

MY MJO IS COMING BACK PEEPS!!!!!!!!
Moderate Phase 8 is a very good sign - me likey!! And it looks to run to 1

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