Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[sroc4]

Cant see nyc getting under the freezing mark during daytime the rest of season

Wait you have me real confused. All of our experts here are saying that we have a chance for cold conditions. Are you seeing something they are not. I am not trying to judge or saying you wrong and they are right just asking why you think this. It is the opposite of what they said. If you or one of are experts can chime in it owuod be great. I am not as smart as other but as of this morning I was pumped for march being cold now your saying the opposite.

Track. All he/she said was that they didn't think NYC doesn't get below freezing as a daytime high for the rest of the season. This does not mean it wont be cold and snowy. Average high temp for NYC on todays date is already 41*. Avg high temp on March 1st is 43* in NYC. That means we need an air mass to provide -11*F departures from normal to achieve a 32* high temp for NYC as of March 1st. By March 7th the avg high is already 45*f meaning a -13 departure from normal is needed to achieve freezing or below freezing daytime High temp. Bottom line is Odds are it will be very difficult to achieve a daytime High at or below freezing forr the rest of the season since the pattern isnt going to support below normal temp departures for about another 5-7days at least.

However; A high temp of 35* on March first would be an 8 degree departure from normal which would be significantly cold relative to the time of year yet would still agree with Carters statement. This doesn't mean it cant snow. So be careful not to misinterpret what some of us are saying about the pattern in front of us. I personally have not mentioned anything about what temps will actually be going forward except to say that the pattern is headed to one that will allow for big snow storms to develop. As we enter March the pattern will allow for below normal temp departures overall, but this doesn't have to mean that a high temp below freezing in NYC will happen, nor does it mean we cant also have a day or two with above normal temps.

Trust me when I tell you there will be at least one BIG storm, wide spread Godzilla or better potential, before all is said and done, but don't think the details of said storm(s) means everyone gets in on the action. Those details will be ironed out inside 3-5days.

When someone makes a general statement like what was said above I wouldn't think much about it without them explaining why.

[WeatherBob]

I do not see a big storm with this pattern developing for the first 2 weeks of March. Seems like a pattern of random cut- off lows will be the rule. Unless you get that cut off develope over Virginia and move east or east northeast with a surface low on the coast, yes , the storm will be there. However, with the developing pattern, you have better odds at hitting a jackpot on a slot machine than seeing the storm I just mentioned happening. Just my humble opinion.

[sroc4]

Your going to have serious -AO and -NAO west based block and a 50/50 low that doesn’t budge for about 2 weeks and energy being ejected out of the west. The aforementioned set up forces the energy under the HP to the north and off the coast. The N Atlantic blocking (-NAO and 50/50 Low) slows down the storm and it snows for 24 hrs. Unlike the prev pattern where the HP to the north is able to escape to the east and the system has marginal airmass to work with. This set up the blocking will keep the HP in place and the cold air source is in place for anything forced underneath.

We haven’t had this kind of blocking in years. Obv it’s still a ways away so it’s all contingent on the block setting up but there is nothing leading to believe it won’t at the moment.

[sroc4]

Do not be surprised to actually see our first threat of snow to happen before we end Feb. Feb 26-29th. It may start with a cutter that sets up the 50/50 low around the 25th-27th followed by a Miller B type system shortly after

[track17]

Thanks Sroc that's why I asked he had me confused

[jmanley32]

Do not be surprised to actually see our first threat of snow to happen before we end Feb. Feb 26-29th. It may start with a cutter that sets up the 50/50 low around the 25th-27th followed by a Miller B type system shortly after

sroc theres 28 days this year : ) So if theres going to be anything happening February 29th its going to be in another dimension lol

[Snow88]

I do not see a big storm with this pattern developing for the first 2 weeks of March.  Seems like a pattern of random cut- off lows will be the rule.  Unless you get that cut off develope over Virginia and move east or east northeast with a surface low on the coast, yes , the storm will be there.  However, with the developing pattern,  you have better odds at hitting a jackpot on a slot machine than seeing the storm I just mentioned happening.  Just my humble opinion.

Storms will not be able to cut with the block

They will be forced to redevelop

[Snow88]

Do not be surprised to actually see our first threat of snow to happen before we end Feb. Feb 26-29th. It may start with a cutter that sets up the 50/50 low around the 25th-27th followed by a Miller B type system shortly after

I agree

The end of the month into the 1st week of March holds a lot of promise for a big slow moving storm.

[Frank_Wx]

Quite the blocking pattern setting up in the long range. I would not be shocked if we saw another snow event occur in March. At the least, we're likely to see below normal temperatures the first 10 days of March. Of course the -NAO wants to develop as we exit Meteorological Winter. This is what happens when a SSWE occurs too late in the season. Our springs start off on the cold side!

[Snow88]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago
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According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

[WeatherBob]

Snow88 - well the GFS is showing a lot of cut - off lows after this Atlantic ridge breaks down. The lows might be forced to re- develope but I still feel there will be too much randomness (new word) in the pattern. Just my opinion and we will see what the ultimate pattern looks like at the end of next week.

[WeatherBob]

One more note on the pattern for early March, if the upper level trough just south of the Greenland block does develope as indicated on the Euro and GFS , any redevelopment of a coastal storm will not bring it up the coast. It’s destiny will be out to see. That’s what I see now. We will have to wait until mid next week to see how this play out. Will the Greenland block be anchored for any length of time? Will the trough south of this block hang ? Those are the key pieces to watch.

[Carter bk]

Where is frank any updates on long range that add more credit to at lease a cooler pattern and maybe snowy

[jmanley32]

Where is frank any updates on long range that add more credit to at lease a cooler pattern and maybe snowy

he posted just a bit back on this page scroll up.

[dkodgis]

If I understand all this, with the -NAO then this means the jet stream will dip, the polar vortex will shear south to some degree, it will get colder, and any precipitation coming to town will/may have enough cold to give us the gold? Not that I am appearing on the Weather Channel but I feel like lighting a match, clapping my hands, and stomping my feet in happiness that I may finally be getting this. I reserve the right to continue splitting my infinitives and still ask dumb questions from time to time.

[sroc4]

Quite the blocking pattern setting up in the long range. I would not be shocked if we saw another snow event occur in March. At the least, we're likely to see below normal temperatures the first 10 days of March. Of course the -NAO wants to develop as we exit Meteorological Winter. This is what happens when a SSWE occurs too late in the season. Our springs start off on the cold side!

Believe who you want to believe

[Snow88]

Anthony Masiello‏

Threat gradually increasing for a coastal storm during the first 4 days of March:

[Snow88]

Anthony Masiello‏

The front end time of blocks, esp after a very warm pattern, normally favor interior and New England. But this storm later next week comes at the peak of the block's retrograde, not necessarily its start. That's what 1962 did as well, as an extreme example.

[Frank_Wx]

One thing to keep in mind about the -NAO block we will see in early March: we do not want it too west-based. That would suppress storms to our south. As the -NAO block weakens that will be our period of opportunity to capitalize on a snow event. March 7th-13th will be the time I would pay attention to. I would also not discount March 2nd-6th but that period would likely be a lighter snow event.

[skinsfan1177]

Looks impressive

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Looks impressive

I'd say it looks confused more than anything, with impressive potential.

[skinsfan1177]

Looks impressive

I'd say it looks confused more than anything, with impressive potential.

Impressive this far out

[amugs]

This is a sick run, the LP can't go anywhwre due to the massive blockade in the North Atlantic. Look at what is does. Just for showing if we get an LP to slip unflderneath with a split flow from the PAC and some STJ love this is a sceneries that us not out of the question. Please no wah wah NE gets crushed just showing the potential here. Runs will be inasneasier the next few days as they starts to see the enermoity of the block sething up over head.

Compliments of Dougie fresh

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This is a sick run, the LP can't go anywhwre due to the massive blockade in the North Atlantic. Look at what is does. Just for showing if we get an LP to slip unflderneath with a split flow from the PAC and some STJ love this is a sceneries that us not out of the question. Please no wah wah NE gets crushed just showing the potential here. Runs will be inasneasier the next few days as they starts to see the enermoity of the block sething up over head.

Compliments of Dougie fresh

WOW!!!!!!! Blizzard of 1888 type track. Who's snow, who's rain, does it happen at all, OTS, a rain storm for all? as Mugs says it's out but it's a long way off, but again WOW.

Some similarities in path also to the Snowicane of Feb 25-26 2010. 21 inches in NYC from that 35 inches IMBY and all rain in Red Sox Suck. Def worth keeping an eye on.

[Dunnzoo]

ok, this is NOT funny! Going to Florida for spring training and it's going to be cool????

[Math23x7]

ok, this is NOT funny! Going to Florida for spring training and it's going to be cool????

That's what a super negative AO/NAO couplet will do

[SnowForest]

I'm hoping to see some more snow this winter. Not ready for mosquitoes just yet. I'm glad to see that we have a real shot at a storm in March.

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