Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **amugs** Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:35 pm

The H5bevutio. Depicted on the models tonight are a hair away about 6 hours from an EXPLOSIVE storm tat could break all kinds of records IF it can come together.
The pattern dictates the outcome.
My Heathers Archimbault snowstorm.
We can do tjis, so let get er done.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:48 pm

At a brief glance of some guidance I do feel all the right pieces are there for another major coastal to impact the area next Monday. The main roadblock will be the confluence over New England that will keep heights flat over the east coast. It's a case where there's literally a traffic jam of low pressure centers all the way into the northern Atlantic. The -NAO is slowing them down. If heights are not improved along the EC then Mondays storm has no path to get here. We need more separation between the polar energy and the upper air energy associated with today's coastal storm. We have a +PNA and a -NAO. I would bet on there being some form of impact than not at this juncture.

by **docstox12** Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:13 am

billg315 wrote:No, no. We’re all there right now CP. lol. Just give it 24 hours for the batteries to re-charge.

Give CP about 2 hours.

Classic Miller A storm as per rb.

Lee Goldberg was poo pooing this storm Tuesday evening and NWS says it goes way S and E.Let the games begin!!!!!!

by **dkodgis** Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:07 am

CP, care, care. Let's have some fecal cohesion, buddy. Very Happy

by **RJB8525** Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:13 am

TWC: watching another potential winter storm for Monday and Monday night on their outlook lol

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:39 am

Here we go again lol

by **dkodgis** Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:44 am

If we have another storm, I will be scatologically impacted. Laughing

by **billg315** Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:52 am

Here’s what caught my attention today. In the TWC weather app extended forecast (which is generally useless, you’re better off just checking out the latest run of the gfs, it will be the same thing) they call for snow showers then a mix of rain and snowshowers Monday . . . But they add “watching a potential winter storm.” I’ve never seen them add that to what is usually a simple sound bite forecast of “showers. High 40”. This tells me they realize the potential for something big. Reminds me of 1993 when the NWS started hinting of something “possibly historic” 5 days before the March 13, 1993 “storm of the century” (which for the NWS to tout a major storm in that manner five days out was virtually unheard of back then).

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:05 am

Believe it or not a good analog for this potential event is March 1888. If you look back at the archives, there was a Miller A low coming up the coast and it phased with strong northern upper level energy coming out of the great lakes. Eerily similar to this potential setup.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:21 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Believe it or not a good analog for this potential event is March 1888. If you look back at the archives, there was a Miller A low coming up the coast and it phased with strong northern upper level energy coming out of the great lakes. Eerily similar to this potential setup.

Last night my reaction to this would have been different, but after a good nights sleep brought on by total storm fatigue I'm renewed and ready for it.

Bring it home Nutley. I say that realizing 4 feet of snow like the blizzard of 88 on top of the 2 feet from yesterday would probably guarantee total destruction of my home and town. Roof collapse would all but be guaranteed. I better rethink this.

by **Grselig** Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:54 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Believe it or not a good analog for this potential event is March 1888. If you look back at the archives, there was a Miller A low coming up the coast and it phased with strong northern upper level energy coming out of the great lakes. Eerily similar to this potential setup.

Last night my reaction to this would have been different, but after a good nights sleep brought on by total storm fatigue I'm renewed and ready for it.

Bring it home Nutley. I say that realizing 4 feet of snow like the blizzard of 88 on top of the 2 feet from yesterday would probably guarantee total destruction of my home and town. Roof collapse would all but be guaranteed. I better rethink this.

4 on top of near 20 would be bad. And not in a good badass way. Crushed homes, down trees and plain old fashioned darwinistic stupidity will result in death and destruction. Still i can’t resist.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:55 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Believe it or not a good analog for this potential event is March 1888. If you look back at the archives, there was a Miller A low coming up the coast and it phased with strong northern upper level energy coming out of the great lakes. Eerily similar to this potential setup.

Last night my reaction to this would have been different, but after a good nights sleep brought on by total storm fatigue I'm renewed and ready for it.

Bring it home Nutley. I say that realizing 4 feet of snow like the blizzard of 88 on top of the 2 feet from yesterday would probably guarantee total destruction of my home and town. Roof collapse would all but be guaranteed. I better rethink this.

1888 would be higher than a frankzilla which he is not suggesting. Cp u can't wish for more snow. I got 3 inches let us coasties cash in this time.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:04 am

jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Believe it or not a good analog for this potential event is March 1888. If you look back at the archives, there was a Miller A low coming up the coast and it phased with strong northern upper level energy coming out of the great lakes. Eerily similar to this potential setup.

Last night my reaction to this would have been different, but after a good nights sleep brought on by total storm fatigue I'm renewed and ready for it.

Bring it home Nutley. I say that realizing 4 feet of snow like the blizzard of 88 on top of the 2 feet from yesterday would probably guarantee total destruction of my home and town. Roof collapse would all but be guaranteed. I better rethink this.
1888 would be higher than a frankzilla which he is not suggesting. Cp u can't wish for more snow. I got 3 inches let us coasties cash in this time.

I was only saying that the players on the field per say are similar. I never suggested what amounts we could see, but if you twisted my arm I would say this has Roidzilla potential but only if we see a phase with the northern disturbance.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:06 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Believe it or not a good analog for this potential event is March 1888. If you look back at the archives, there was a Miller A low coming up the coast and it phased with strong northern upper level energy coming out of the great lakes. Eerily similar to this potential setup.

Last night my reaction to this would have been different, but after a good nights sleep brought on by total storm fatigue I'm renewed and ready for it.

Bring it home Nutley. I say that realizing 4 feet of snow like the blizzard of 88 on top of the 2 feet from yesterday would probably guarantee total destruction of my home and town. Roof collapse would all but be guaranteed. I better rethink this.
1888 would be higher than a frankzilla which he is not suggesting. Cp u can't wish for more snow. I got 3 inches let us coasties cash in this time.
I was only saying that the players on the field per say are similar. I never suggested what amounts we could see, but if you twisted my arm I would say this has Roidzilla potential but only if we see a phase with the northern disturbance.

and how possible does that look att. I know a lot can and will change in the next few days. Frank also said heights need to b better but due to traffic in atlantic doesn't bode well? Don't get me wrong a storm like that I would want to live through once.

by **dkodgis** Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:40 am

So we have upper atmosphere potential out there in the Pacific. It is slow moving. It could go out to sea or hang as a low and pound us. It looks cold enough. And we can’t say anything def 40 hrs out. Count me in. I like it

by **RJB8525** Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:42 am

not sure where to put this so feel free to move it..

Current Power Outages

JCP&L-138k
PSE&G-79k
Con Ed-28k
Atlantic City Electric-12k

by **Radz** Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:57 am

Is yesterdays storm sitting out there going to block Monday's storm from coming North??

by **Sanchize06** Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:19 am

12z GFS and 12z ICON bring the storm a bit more NW, graze the coast

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:25 am

I'm hearing this is a very slim to no chance. So for now I'm not go think anything of it. No model has shown a hit yet. Except maybe the ukie. But that looked to mostly b totals from yesyerday

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:56 am

jmanley32 wrote:I'm hearing this is a very slim to no chance. So for now I'm not go think anything of it. No model has shown a hit yet. Except maybe the ukie. But that looked to mostly b totals from yesyerday

Here we go again...lol

facepalm

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm hearing this is a very slim to no chance. So for now I'm not go think anything of it. No model has shown a hit yet. Except maybe the ukie. But that looked to mostly b totals from yesyerday

Here we go again...lol

Also, Sroc, you should know that cranky is not feeling this "flat" potential either.

lol!

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:24 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm hearing this is a very slim to no chance. So for now I'm not go think anything of it. No model has shown a hit yet. Except maybe the ukie. But that looked to mostly b totals from yesyerday

Here we go again...lol

Also, Sroc, you should know that cranky is not feeling this "flat" potential either.

by **Grselig** Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm hearing this is a very slim to no chance. So for now I'm not go think anything of it. No model has shown a hit yet. Except maybe the ukie. But that looked to mostly b totals from yesyerday

Here we go again...lol

Also, Sroc, you should know that cranky is not feeling this "flat" potential either.

We all know crankypants is a weather prophet. But cranky even admitted he was tired. It’s possible he exhausted his mojo and needs to recharge. Give him a Red Bull. Meanwhile we have Frank SROC, RB and a whole bunch of smart talented people including Mugs quoting Earthlight

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:41 pm

Sigh....... 18z GFS is obviously at Happy Hour. drunken

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 0989bf10

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:41 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh....... 18z GFS is obviously at Happy Hour.

is that for Mon? What's wrong with that very close look st thread on the potential storm.

by **SNOW MAN** Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:21 pm

I've been hearing from all the local TV Mets that at the end of next week things are going to get warmer. Not crazy warm, but temps in the 40's. Does this mean are chances for snow will diminish and the Winter season will be coming to an end. I know rb mentioned that things may stay colder right up until April 1st. Does anyone have any thoughts on this ? Thanks.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:35 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:I've been hearing from all the local TV Mets that at the end of next week things are going to get warmer. Not crazy warm, but temps in the 40's. Does this mean are chances for snow will diminish and the Winter season will be coming to an end. I know rb mentioned that things may stay colder right up until April 1st. Does anyone have any thoughts on this ? Thanks.

We'll see periods of below normal weather continue through the rest of this month. "Below normal" in mid-March standards is 40's for NYC. Interior and places N&W of NYC remain locked into a favorable winter pattern for the next 10 days or so. It is going to be a below normal March. Hopefully we warm up by April.

by Sponsored content