Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[billg315]

The 12z GFS seems to transfer energy to the coastal low a bit further south than the 6z, but it also seems to form/strengthen that low farther off the coast. That doesn't seem terribly logical to me. Someone can correct me if I'm blatantly wrong, but when energy transfers to these coastal lows my experience is they tend to be relatively close to the coast and a little further south than has so far been projected (Usually around Virginia or the southern Delmarva). Ergo, I think the 12z GFS is picking up on the development further south (which seems correct), but perhaps shifting it too far east (I think it will be tucked a little closer to the coast at first). Now that could be because the pattern is a little too progressive (as currently modeled) at the outset and the ridge over the central U.S. doesn't dig the trough deep enough in the east quickly enough?? Not sure. But if I were a betting man, I'd say the Low develops further south than the 6z GFS and closer to the coast than the 12z GFS.

In any event, the upper air pattern also seems to show some ridging building over the Rockies/Central US, which I would hope would provide some cold air from central Canada pouring downstream into this system -- if not at the outset, perhaps as the storm strengthens. Could this also be the type of storm where initial cold rain goes over to heavy wet snow as the cold air gets into the system?

Even if there is not much snow, I could see this storm being similar to the mid-March 2010 storm that brought severe flooding and some wind damage to NJ. Should be an interesting one to watch.

[SoulSingMG]

And let's not get into what the 12z Euro just put out for the next storm......

[WeatherBob]

Billg315- my thoughts too on the position of the surface low.  The Euro looks strange with the 500 mb cut off over the Delaware / Delmarva region and the surface low quite a bit east.  The GFS looks strange also with the upper levels cutting off but in an elongated west to east position.  Seems like the block to the north is supressing the early development of the system somehow this model run.  Just looks all strange to me.  Very interesting though! You gotta love Meteorology!

[billg315]

Billg315- my thoughts too on the position of the surface low.  The Euro looks strange with the 500 mb cut off over the Delaware / Delmarva region and the surface low quite a bit east.  The GFS looks strange also with the upper levels cutting off but in an elongated west to east position.  Seems like the block to the north is supressing the early development of the system somehow this model run.  Just looks all strange to me.  Very interesting though! You gotta love Meteorology!

Exactly. Agreed on all points. Whether this is snow or not, I'm interested to see how this develops. I think the models are struggling with the nature of this secondary low development and that will have a big impact on what we end up with.

[algae888]

Billg315- my thoughts too on the position of the surface low.  The Euro looks strange with the 500 mb cut off over the Delaware / Delmarva region and the surface low quite a bit east.  The GFS looks strange also with the upper levels cutting off but in an elongated west to east position.  Seems like the block to the north is supressing the early development of the system somehow this model run.  Just looks all strange to me.  Very interesting though! You gotta love Meteorology!

Exactly. Agreed on all points.  Whether this is snow or not, I'm interested to see how this develops. I think the models are struggling with the nature of this secondary low development and that will have a big impact on what we end up with.

The main point to take out of the last several cycles of model runs is that the system is progressively getting weaker that's the primary which would definitely impact how strong the secondary gets. We basically need a bomb to get snow. any weak system will not do it in this marginal airmasd. sub 980 is what I'm looking for for snow in our area. Just look at the cut backing qpf today from yesterday's runs which showef two to three inches of rain today under an inch

[algae888]

And let's not get into what the 12z Euro just put out for the next storm......

Soul will have three chances to get snow in the first 15 days or so of March the first one coming late this week the second one is the one you're referring to and the last one is when the pattern breaks down. hopefully one of them will give us our last hurrah for this winter

[billg315]

Billg315- my thoughts too on the position of the surface low.  The Euro looks strange with the 500 mb cut off over the Delaware / Delmarva region and the surface low quite a bit east.  The GFS looks strange also with the upper levels cutting off but in an elongated west to east position.  Seems like the block to the north is supressing the early development of the system somehow this model run.  Just looks all strange to me.  Very interesting though! You gotta love Meteorology!

Exactly. Agreed on all points.  Whether this is snow or not, I'm interested to see how this develops. I think the models are struggling with the nature of this secondary low development and that will have a big impact on what we end up with.

The main point to take out of the last several cycles of model runs is that the system is progressively getting weaker that's the primary which would definitely impact how strong the secondary gets. We basically need a bomb to get snow. any weak system will not do it in this marginal airmasd. sub 980 is what I'm looking for for snow in our area. Just look at the cut backing qpf today from yesterday's runs which showef two to three inches of rain today under an inch

Good point. I'm wondering if that is why the secondary seemed a little strung out on some of the models today. Definitely need explosive development to create cold air in this system. I still think that is possible, I just think the models are struggling with it right now. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow and see the models showing a developing deep, tightly wound secondary right off the Delmarva. Or at least one can dream. lol.

[algae888]

Billg315- my thoughts too on the position of the surface low.  The Euro looks strange with the 500 mb cut off over the Delaware / Delmarva region and the surface low quite a bit east.  The GFS looks strange also with the upper levels cutting off but in an elongated west to east position.  Seems like the block to the north is supressing the early development of the system somehow this model run.  Just looks all strange to me.  Very interesting though! You gotta love Meteorology!

Exactly. Agreed on all points.  Whether this is snow or not, I'm interested to see how this develops. I think the models are struggling with the nature of this secondary low development and that will have a big impact on what we end up with.

The main point to take out of the last several cycles of model runs is that the system is progressively getting weaker that's the primary which would definitely impact how strong the secondary gets. We basically need a bomb to get snow. any weak system will not do it in this marginal airmasd. sub 980 is what I'm looking for for snow in our area. Just look at the cut backing qpf today from yesterday's runs which showef two to three inches of rain today under an inch

Good point. I'm wondering if that is why the secondary seemed a little strung out on some of the models today. Definitely need explosive development to create cold air in this system. I still think that is possible, I just think the models are struggling with it right now. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow and see the models showing a developing deep, tightly wound secondary right off the Delmarva. Or at least one can dream. lol.

Bill if you think about it the new pattern is just starting to establish itself that's the negative nao/ao. Typically when patterns change or a new one develops we usually don't do well in the snow Department it's either when the pattern is firmly established or when it starts breaking down is when we see our best snow chances here at least with the negative nao. Don't forget we're just coming out of one Stout Western Atlantic ridge record-breaking at that.

[algae888]

Another point about Dynamic Cooling is that it's all about the strength of the low pressure and its position relative to any area. If you take a look at today's 18z nam. You will see below zero 850s over Orange County and above zero 850s in central Vermont because of its location near the deepening low pressure center. This storms going to come down to where it explodes and how strong it gets

[sroc4]

Billg315- my thoughts too on the position of the surface low.  The Euro looks strange with the 500 mb cut off over the Delaware / Delmarva region and the surface low quite a bit east.  The GFS looks strange also with the upper levels cutting off but in an elongated west to east position.  Seems like the block to the north is supressing the early development of the system somehow this model run.  Just looks all strange to me.  Very interesting though! You gotta love Meteorology!

Exactly. Agreed on all points.  Whether this is snow or not, I'm interested to see how this develops. I think the models are struggling with the nature of this secondary low development and that will have a big impact on what we end up with.

The main point to take out of the last several cycles of model runs is that the system is progressively getting weaker that's the primary which would definitely impact how strong the secondary gets. We basically need a bomb to get snow. any weak system will not do it in this marginal airmasd. sub 980 is what I'm looking for for snow in our area. Just look at the cut backing qpf today from yesterday's runs which showef two to three inches of rain today under an inch

Good point. I'm wondering if that is why the secondary seemed a little strung out on some of the models today. Definitely need explosive development to create cold air in this system. I still think that is possible, I just think the models are struggling with it right now. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow and see the models showing a developing deep, tightly wound secondary right off the Delmarva. Or at least one can dream. lol.

 One explanation is that its chasing the convection on the euro verbatim.  Do not be surprised to see a more consolidated system with a better NW expansion of the precip shield and likely better dynamics when the model no longer chases the Ghost low out in the Atlantic and focus in on the 976mb primary south of Cape Cod.

[algae888]

You could be right Scott the other thing that's concerning and is getting me to lose hope in this system is that most of the ensemble members that show the strongest system are north of our area the weaker systems are the ones that are South so that puts us in a bad spot

[WeatherBob]

On the 500 mb GFS (96 hr)if you draw a line from the center of the block in Greenland,  and go due south, the upper level low on the coast sits to the west of this line, essentially in a positive trough position.  As the upper low moves east and comes right under this imaginary line (108 hr) the upper level low trough starts to go negative and then intensifies more significantly.  The question is what position will the block be in on Thursday when the system moves in from the West?    There are still many questions to be answered as noted from the above comments too. I think the pieces to the puzzle are becoming somewhat clearer . It should be fun to watch! Also, even if we don,t get a snowstorm out of this, I think we can use this as a learning tool for future forecasts!

[jmanley32]

The 12z GFS seems to transfer energy to the coastal low a bit further south than the 6z, but it also seems to form/strengthen that low farther off the coast.  That doesn't seem terribly logical to me. Someone can correct me if I'm blatantly wrong, but when energy transfers to these coastal lows my experience is they tend to be relatively close to the coast and a little further south than has so far been projected (Usually around Virginia or the southern Delmarva).  Ergo, I think the 12z GFS is picking up on the development further south (which seems correct), but perhaps shifting it too far east (I think it will be tucked a little closer to the coast at first). Now that could be because the pattern is a little too progressive (as currently modeled) at the outset and the ridge over the central U.S. doesn't dig the trough deep enough in the east quickly enough?? Not sure. But if I were a betting man, I'd say the Low develops further south than the 6z GFS and closer to the coast than the 12z GFS.

In any event, the upper air pattern also seems to show some ridging building over the Rockies/Central US, which I would hope would provide some cold air from central Canada pouring downstream into this system -- if not at the outset, perhaps as the storm strengthens.  Could this also be the type of storm where initial cold rain goes over to heavy wet snow as the cold air gets into the system?

Even if there is not much snow, I could see this storm being similar to the mid-March 2010 storm that brought severe flooding and some wind damage to NJ.  Should be an interesting one to watch.

yep march 2010 noreaster is what I've been thinking if. It was severe here in terms of wind. A lot of damage. I think peak gusts were near 70 mph even here in Westchester.

[rb924119]

18z NAM WOULD BE HUGE. HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR THE BETTER IN H5 VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELING. It keeps the stronger northern stream energy OPEN and doesn't close it off like the other guidance. This is hugely important because it keeps the initial low much weaker and the overall local pattern progressive, which largely limits the low-level warm advection because the warm front cannot be driven as far north as quickly. It also allows the initial lead energy to get slightly out ahead of it while it enters our region WITH A FRESH INJECTION OF COLD AIR. It will also lead to a later, and much more explosive phase along the East Coast, resulting in a deeper, larger, more organized system with much stronger dynamics and possibility of cooling dynamically. Only an 18z run, which I usually don't like to pay attention to, but it shows where I think we will see this head in future runs.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I've noticed many are referencing the March 2010 storm but does anyone see any similarities between this possible setup and the February 25-25 2010 Snowicane that dumped 21 inches on NYC and 3 feet in parts of Orange County and 5 feet in parts of the Catskills?

In layman's terms the similarities I see between this set up and that is the uncertainty leading up to it of where anyone seems to think it will rain or snow from the system. I remember thinking two days before that storm we were going to get about 2 to 4 inches of snow in the Hudson Valley and rain most of the time and like I said earlier we ended up with 3 feet, and like I said I'm not expecting anything like that, but I can always dream. There was also no cold air available to work with in that storm similar to this one.

The other thing is the blocking that was in place at the time made that a very slow moving storm which did retrograde for a period. And of course a couple of the operational snow maps have looked very similar with the extreme East West cut off line between rain and snow. Anyone that remembers that storm it pretty much snowed in New York City on North up the Hudson River and anything in New England from Vermont down to the Connecticut coast rained through most of the storm. I don't believe Red Sox Suck got any snow out of that storm it was all rain.

Just curious. I also have to throw in a it is great to have RB back.

[rb924119]

I've noticed many are referencing the March 2010 storm but does anyone see any similarities between this possible setup and the February 25-25 2010 Snowicane that dumped 21 inches on NYC and 3 feet in parts of Orange County and 5 feet in parts of the Catskills?

In layman's terms the similarities I see between this set up and that is the uncertainty leading up to it of where anyone seems to think it will rain or snow from the system. I remember thinking two days before that storm we were going to get about 2 to 4 inches of snow in the Hudson Valley and rain most of the time and like I said earlier we ended up with 3 feet, and like I said I'm not expecting anything like that, but I can always dream. There was also no cold air available to work with in that storm similar to this one.

The other thing is the blocking that was in place at the time made that a very slow moving storm which did retrograde for a period. And of course a couple of the operational snow maps have looked very similar with the extreme East West cut off line between rain and snow. Anyone that remembers that storm it pretty much snowed in New York City on North up the Hudson River and anything in New England from Vermont down to the Connecticut coast rained through most of the storm. I don't believe Red Sox Suck got any snow out of that storm it was all rain.

Just curious. I also have to throw in a it is great to have RB back.

Sorry to burst your bubble, CP, but this setup is nothing like Feb. 2010. Very, very different synoptic setup compared to this upcoming one even though some of the maps may look similar. I actually did a case study for school on this storm detailing the evolution, I remember it well haha I could dig it up if you or anybody else would be interested lol

And thank you for the warm homecomings everybody. Good to be back and tracking!!

[WeatherBob]

Your right rb, the 500 mb 84 hr NAM does show that piece of energy sliding SE from Michigan right into the piece of energy off the southern NJ / Delaware coast. Could that Michigan energy be the key to rapid cyclogenisis off the coast? Very interesting!

[weatherwatchermom]

18z NAM WOULD BE HUGE. HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR THE BETTER IN H5 VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELING. It keeps the stronger northern stream energy OPEN and doesn't close it off like the other guidance. This is hugely important because it keeps the initial low much weaker and the overall local pattern progressive, which largely limits the low-level warm advection because the warm front cannot be driven as far north as quickly. It also allows the initial lead energy to get slightly out ahead of it while it enters our region WITH A FRESH INJECTION OF COLD AIR. It will also lead to a later, and much more explosive phase along the East Coast, resulting in a deeper, larger, more organized system with much stronger dynamics and possibility of cooling dynamically. Only an 18z run, which I usually don't like to pay attention to, but it shows where I think we will see this head in future runs.

thank you and glad to see you posted...miss your posts....hope your project is going well?!(you can answer in banter if you want)

[rb924119]

Your right rb, the 500 mb 84 hr NAM does show that piece of energy sliding SE from Michigan right into the piece of energy off the southern NJ / Delaware coast.  Could that Michigan energy be the key to rapid cyclogenisis off the coast?  Very interesting!

I absolutely think it's the key. If that can remain open and traverse to the coast before phasing completely with the lead energy, we are literally talking about a difference in sensible impacts and development on the same order of magnitude as scouting a high school sports player versus a pro.

[WeatherBob]

Wow, this is cool!  I am getting excited again! Almost like the great April 6th , 1982 Blizzard of the Century.  Temps were in the upper 30’ s as a vigorous short wave barreled SE from Michigan.  That caused rapid cyclogenis off the southern NJ coast. Temps fell to around 30, 10 to 12 in of snow fell and the Yankees home opener was cancelled. Lightning and thunder! The Blizzard winds actually occurred after the snow stopped.  NW winds kicked in and were gusting to between 60 and 70 mph. 6 foot drifts!  Oh sweet memories!

[rb924119]

18z NAM WOULD BE HUGE. HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR THE BETTER IN H5 VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELING. It keeps the stronger northern stream energy OPEN and doesn't close it off like the other guidance. This is hugely important because it keeps the initial low much weaker and the overall local pattern progressive, which largely limits the low-level warm advection because the warm front cannot be driven as far north as quickly. It also allows the initial lead energy to get slightly out ahead of it while it enters our region WITH A FRESH INJECTION OF COLD AIR. It will also lead to a later, and much more explosive phase along the East Coast, resulting in a deeper, larger, more organized system with much stronger dynamics and possibility of cooling dynamically. Only an 18z run, which I usually don't like to pay attention to, but it shows where I think we will see this head in future runs.

thank you and glad to see you posted...miss your posts....hope your project is going well?!(you can answer in banter if you want)

It's definitely progressing!!! Not done yet, but it's getting close and should be wrapping up within the next few weeks and I'll hopefully be able to get some results of the beta tests out sometime thereafter. Fun times ahead for sure and you'll all be kept in the know!!

[SENJsnowman]

So based on present optimism, is there any hope for mostly/all snow down the Jersey coast for this weekend? Where does the most likely placement seem for the r/s line now, both in terms of E-W and N-S?

I know...too early to do more than speculate, but that's-part of the fun, too, right?

[WeatherBob]

SENJ - that question is pretty much a crap shoot right now.  The 18z NAM is the model that shows the most promise for rapid cyclogenisis and it just has hinted at that.  It would be too much of a guess right now.  Let’s see what tonight’s and tuesdays runs have in store before making any estimates.  Just my opinion

[rb924119]

So based on present optimism, is there any hope for mostly/all snow down the Jersey coast for this weekend? Where does the most likely placement seem for the r/s line now, both in terms of E-W and N-S?

I know...too early to do more than speculate, but that's-part of the fun, too, right?

I think based on the evolution I am envisioning in my mind, the ceiling would be a 50% maximum for rain versus snow p-type with a wind driven heavy rain transitioning to a wind driven heavy wet snow for the second half as the rain-snow line crashes rapidly to the southeast on the backside of the rapidly deepening coastal low. This remains to be seen, though.

[rb924119]

And while 50-50 is an equal portion, we are looking at an event that will feature much more than 1" QPF. Granted, ratios will be relatively low at first but increase through the remainder. Ground temps would be an issue for a short period, but would be overcome given the precip rate and wet nature of the initial snow. Given all of the above, I can easily see warning/advisory-criteria snowfall in line with my earlier generalized geographic outline, it would still be wise to keep expectations tempered.

[docstox12]

So based on present optimism, is there any hope for mostly/all snow down the Jersey coast for this weekend? Where does the most likely placement seem for the r/s line now, both in terms of E-W and N-S?

I know...too early to do more than speculate, but that's-part of the fun, too, right?

I think based on the evolution I am envisioning in my mind, the ceiling would be a 50% maximum for rain versus snow p-type with a wind driven heavy rain transitioning to a wind driven heavy wet snow for the second half as the rain-snow line crashes rapidly to the southeast on the backside of the rapidly deepening coastal low. This remains to be seen, though.

Reminds me of December 2002.

[jmanley32]

And while 50-50 is an equal portion, we are looking at an event that will feature much more than 1" QPF. Granted, ratios will be relatively low at first but increase through the remainder. Ground temps would be an issue for a short period, but would be overcome given the precip rate and wet nature of the initial snow. Given all of the above, I can easily see warning/advisory-criteria snowfall in line with my earlier generalized geographic outline, it would still be wise to keep expectations tempered.

hey rb I see the hwo fore eastern CT on east is pretty severe in terms if coastal and wind impscts. Do you think high winds will be an issue here? They actually removed the hwo completely I guess nws buying further east senario. We know how they change though.

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