Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[docstox12]

So based on present optimism, is there any hope for mostly/all snow down the Jersey coast for this weekend? Where does the most likely placement seem for the r/s line now, both in terms of E-W and N-S?

I know...too early to do more than speculate, but that's-part of the fun, too, right?

I think based on the evolution I am envisioning in my mind, the ceiling would be a 50% maximum for rain versus snow p-type with a wind driven heavy rain transitioning to a wind driven heavy wet snow for the second half as the rain-snow line crashes rapidly to the southeast on the backside of the rapidly deepening coastal low. This remains to be seen, though.

Reminds me of December 2002.

[jmanley32]

And while 50-50 is an equal portion, we are looking at an event that will feature much more than 1" QPF. Granted, ratios will be relatively low at first but increase through the remainder. Ground temps would be an issue for a short period, but would be overcome given the precip rate and wet nature of the initial snow. Given all of the above, I can easily see warning/advisory-criteria snowfall in line with my earlier generalized geographic outline, it would still be wise to keep expectations tempered.

hey rb I see the hwo fore eastern CT on east is pretty severe in terms if coastal and wind impscts. Do you think high winds will be an issue here? They actually removed the hwo completely I guess nws buying further east senario. We know how they change though.

[track17]

I agree with you jman I am more interested in the winds out of this one.

[WeatherBob]

Jman - you know how those NWS meteorologists can be such weenies at times but they do have a big responsibility. They have to put out a forecast and always go with the safe bet being the GFS usually.  This storm is still speculation for a big hit at this point in my opinion so really you can’t blame them.

[amugs]

I've been largely quiet and absent, but have broken my temporary and self-imposed "benching" from time to time by checking in. I am still bordering on a fine line between a full return and just letting people go on with their emotion-fueled posts without any sweat off my back, or, returning to my completely frustrated state and reinstating my self-administered "benching" lol I wanted to break my silence with the following, and IT IS NOT MEANT TO COME ACROSS AS MOCKING, POMPASS, OR ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES: Those of you who are claiming that this storm is "over" with respect to its snow component, do not actually know how close this event ACTUALLY IS to being a significant snow threat FOR THE COAST. As has been stated ad nauseum, surface maps and operational runs CANNOT, BY ANY MEANS, BE TAKEN VERBATIM. If you need evidence of why, take a look at the operational run inconsistencies over only the last 24 hours. We've not only had issues with secondary placement or intensity, but now we are having additional issues with development versus an inverted trough. The highly anomalous nature of this pattern and event is causing mayhem in the modeling. This is where pattern recognition is a necessity, because modeling, while helpful, is going to be useless until the very near term. My thoughts? Everybody north of the Madon-Dixon WILL SEE SNOW FROM THIS, with significant accumulations likely north of about I-78.  Look for a correction south and an earlier coastal transfer with an explosive period of development during the first 18-24 hours of the life of the coastal. Models will not see this right away. The entire Northern Hemispheric pattern supports a south trend, and with the anomalous warmth of the western Atlantic waters beneath such an anomalous trough, among the other later-deep dynamical forcing mechanisms will lead to the explosive development of the secondary coastal.

You can have your opinions, I'm not against that. But please don't base your opinions SOLELY on surface maps. Just sit tight folks, and ride this one out for a few days, because between now and game time, this is going to be a wild-a$$ ride over the next several days.

The KID is back and better than ever!!
Glad that you are back rb and LOVE just LOVE the write up and discussion in here.
I have been patiently waiting and said the pattern will dictate the outcome.
A -5SD NAO block even as it it forming is extreme - like teh EPO we saw in Dec when the fight began on here for a white xmass etc.
@Al the middle of next week when teh pattern is mature and we have teh PAC jet retraction with a split flow and PNA going POS is when we see the crusher IMO.
I wrote here a few days ago we would see the Archambault event as the pattern/block relaxes. As per the MJO it looks to do a stall in phase 2 and then into 3 as per the very warm waters off the African Coast in the Indian Ocean. Reason why peeps we saw the anomalous warmth or a factor was ENSO 1.2 warmed anomalously again this year going from east based Nina to central based thus shifting the trough from us to the central part of the USA and west.
GEFS have lead teh way so if this is correct then March may be more BN and snowier than one would think. Phase 2 and 3 are cold and snowy for the NE. Lag time from the MJO and you need to understand this
[img][/img]

1.2 - ARRGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!


But anyway great to have you back kid and lets get these next few storms!!!

[rb924119]

And while 50-50 is an equal portion, we are looking at an event that will feature much more than 1" QPF. Granted, ratios will be relatively low at first but increase through the remainder. Ground temps would be an issue for a short period, but would be overcome given the precip rate and wet nature of the initial snow. Given all of the above, I can easily see warning/advisory-criteria snowfall in line with my earlier generalized geographic outline, it would still be wise to keep expectations tempered.

hey rb I see the hwo fore eastern CT on east is pretty severe in terms if coastal and wind impscts. Do you think high winds will be an issue here? They actually removed the hwo completely I guess nws buying further east senario. We know how they change though.

Yes, though I am currently unsure of the magnitude for my lack of in-depth analysis. The reason why I think is because we have consistently noted that we only get the widespread high wind events when the wind comes from the north and west quadrant as lows pull away and we get the momentum to mix down as the low-level inversion erodes and column-deep cold air advection takes over (except in special events like tropical systems where the column is generally isothermal anyway). In this case we will have an extended period of time where our whole region will be located in that quadrant. Again, I don't know how much available momentum we will have to work with at, say, 850 hPa, or 900 hPa, but I would expect it to at least be breezy given the setup, with an obvious increase the amount of momentum with increasing coastal low strength. Just my opinion, but I think wind WILL be an issue, I just haven't looked at those details to know what the most likely impact would be right now.

[rb924119]

And thanks mugsy!! Good to be back brotha!!

[rb924119]

So based on present optimism, is there any hope for mostly/all snow down the Jersey coast for this weekend? Where does the most likely placement seem for the r/s line now, both in terms of E-W and N-S?

I know...too early to do more than speculate, but that's-part of the fun, too, right?

I think based on the evolution I am envisioning in my mind, the ceiling would be a 50% maximum for rain versus snow p-type with a wind driven heavy rain transitioning to a wind driven heavy wet snow for the second half as the rain-snow line crashes rapidly to the southeast on the backside of the rapidly deepening coastal low. This remains to be seen, though.

Reminds me of December 2002.

Split flow - yes. Everything else, not really. That system was southern stream dominant. This one will not be. The overall pattern was much different too.

[rb924119]

Interesting NAM run.

[jmanley32]

Interesting NAM run.

ct on east get crushed on that run, all rain but man the winds and beaches, the LP is literally over them. Wait just saw hrs 81 to 84, did it retrograde a bit and down to 978mb? The windfield pushed back into NYC area too, this is going to be a interesting one to track.

[rb924119]

The NAM is about as close as you can get to my ideas as to how this system unfolds, and I'm throwing it out lol not following this run. It's wrong. Two H5 closed lows in that proximity to one another doesn't happen. One will be dominant, and I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I'd be willing to bet A LOT that the digging northern stream energy becomes the main. IF THAT happens, you get a sub-975 hPa low stuck ESE of the Delmarva with one heck of a dually forced CCB/deformation axis at H7 and H5 stretched right across our region. That would be a ridiculously fast heavy rain to heavy snow, blinding conditions with the wind, and thunder/lightning like we haven't seen for several years. I'm telling you, this storm is NOT over for the coast.

[jmanley32]

The NAM is about as close as you can get to my ideas as to how this system unfolds, and I'm throwing it out lol not following this run. It's wrong. Two H5 closed lows in that proximity to one another doesn't happen. One will be dominant, and I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I'd be willing to bet A LOT that the digging northern stream energy becomes the main. IF THAT happens, you get a sub-975 hPa low stuck ESE of the Delmarva with one heck of a dually forced CCB/deformation axis at H7 and H5 stretched right across our region. That would be a ridiculously fast heavy rain to heavy snow, blinding conditions with the wind, and thunder/lightning like we haven't seen for several years. I'm telling you, this storm is NOT over for the coast.

dude if that happens I will forever crown you king over models lol.

[billg315]

Looks like the 0z NAM transfers the energy off Cape May Thursday evening then it deepens off LI Friday AM. Actually crashes enough cold air on backside to turn rain to snow all the way into north/central NJ late Thurs night into Fri morning. This is a little closer to what I’d expect then what the models showed earlier.

[WeatherBob]

I hope so rb!  All eyes are on you now.  You have committed / locked and loaded this storm to all the weather weenies on this board. You have guts!

[billg315]

If the NAM is right most everyone on this board wakes up to snow Friday morning.

[rb924119]

You know my stance: anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon Line is going to see some accumulation of snow from this. By the time you get to an east-west line at approximately I-78 I think you'll be looking at warning criteria snows. I said that earlier, and I see no reason at present to stray from that right now based on what I've been able to see.

[billg315]

You know my stance: anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon Line is going to see some accumulation of snow from this. By the time you get to an east-west line at approximately I-78 I think you'll be looking at warning criteria snows. I said that earlier, and I see no reason at present to stray from that right now based on what I've been able to see.

Well the NAM just moved dramatically in your direction. And it’s been pretty good of late. It does seem there may be enough cold air pouring in Thursday night to get this over to snow. As it will be at night, if it’s heavy it will stick even if surface is a little above freezing

[billg315]

We always say to watch trends not just the model output in isolation. I think the trend is for the secondary to form far enough south and deepen quickly enough to get the cold air we need in here. The 850 frz line crashes into south jersey overnight Thur. Of course that isn’t locked in (and won’t be until Thursday) but I like the way it moved today.

[SENJsnowman]

The NAM is about as close as you can get to my ideas as to how this system unfolds, and I'm throwing it out lol not following this run. It's wrong. Two H5 closed lows in that proximity to one another doesn't happen. One will be dominant, and I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I'd be willing to bet A LOT that the digging northern stream energy becomes the main. IF THAT happens, you get a sub-975 hPa low stuck ESE of the Delmarva with one heck of a dually forced CCB/deformation axis at H7 and H5 stretched right across our region. That would be a ridiculously fast heavy rain to heavy snow, blinding conditions with the wind, and thunder/lightning like we haven't seen for several years. I'm telling you, this storm is NOT over for the coast.

Appreciate the feedback RB, WeatherBob and others. I think most of us on the Jersey Coast, at least from Ocean County on south naturally have VERY low expectations for March snow fall in general, and ESPECIALLY so for coastal storms.

it just seems that for us, the coastal storms are either WAY too warm and we get all rain, or they are so far off the coast to the point that only the Shore and LI get the glancing blows of wet heavy snow, usually to the tune of 3-6".

I've only been living at the Shore since 2012, but since then we have not yet had even one really solid March coastal snowstorm (really nothing in February either). We do tend to get one moderate snowfall every March, but it's always from what I call the 'striper' storms: Long, thin frontal boundary systems that usually drop about 6" of wet heavy snow coming NE from the Smokey Mtn area up thru NJ and NYC areas and then straight out to sea.

I guess until I live thru a nice March N'Easter, I'll just keep expecting the worst...aka the warmest...possible outcome. All that said, I'd love for this to be the storm that flips the script.

And once again, it looks like the LR crew on this board is poised to make mince meat out of the models and the pro's. Awesome to watch fellas!

[rb924119]

Folks, this is HUGE: SREF snowfall probabilities at 1" (top left), 4" (top right), 8" (bottom left), and 12" (bottom right). Take a look at the geographic distribution AND THE RESPECTIVE PROBABILITIES (%) AT 84 HOURS OUT WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THESE TEND TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. Pretty darn close to what I'm thinking as it stands now, so let's hope this stays about status quo. Also do yourselves a favor and check the mean low placement lastly, THERE ARE MANY WICKED INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. FIRED. UP.

[rb924119]

[jmanley32]

Folks, this is HUGE: SREF snowfall probabilities at 1" (top left), 4" (top right), 8" (bottom left), and 12" (bottom right). Take a look at the geographic distribution AND THE RESPECTIVE PROBABILITIES (%) AT 84 HOURS OUT WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THESE TEND TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. Pretty darn close to what I'm thinking as it stands now, so let's hope this stays about status quo. Also do yourselves a favor and check the mean low placement lastly, THERE ARE MANY WICKED INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. FIRED. UP.

Image? Got it now, also bad geography here does your area of warning level snow include the nyc area? I do not know where I-78 is lol

[billg315]

I have to remind myself still three days to go because that run got me pretty pumped. The coast is still on knifes edge but I’m feeling much better for significant snow everywhere else after the coastal low deepens and the cold air crashes down.

[billg315]

Folks, this is HUGE: SREF snowfall probabilities at 1" (top left), 4" (top right), 8" (bottom left), and 12" (bottom right). Take a look at the geographic distribution AND THE RESPECTIVE PROBABILITIES (%) AT 84 HOURS OUT WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THESE TEND TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. Pretty darn close to what I'm thinking as it stands now, so let's hope this stays about status quo. Also do yourselves a favor and check the mean low placement lastly, THERE ARE MANY WICKED INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. FIRED. UP.

Image? Got it now, also bad geography here does your area of warning level snow include the nyc area? I do not know where I-78 is lol

JMan, I-78 runs from Allentown PA due east to Newark NJ and into NYC.

[rb924119]

Folks, this is HUGE: SREF snowfall probabilities at 1" (top left), 4" (top right), 8" (bottom left), and 12" (bottom right). Take a look at the geographic distribution AND THE RESPECTIVE PROBABILITIES (%) AT 84 HOURS OUT WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THESE TEND TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. Pretty darn close to what I'm thinking as it stands now, so let's hope this stays about status quo. Also do yourselves a favor and check the mean low placement lastly, THERE ARE MANY WICKED INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. FIRED. UP.

Image? Got it now, also bad geography here does your area of warning level snow include the nyc area? I do not know where I-78 is lol

A line from Allentown, Pa through Jersey City, NJ. Approximately lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Damn it RB now I'm going to be up late to see the late night runs. Must remain calm, still a long way off and borderline right now.

[billg315]

Let’s see where the 0z GFS goes with this.

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