Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[jmanley32]

Serve me some cmc please!! Euro was too far east hammers you know where. Not concerned 4 days out. But 00z cmc was the best run 12 plus smack over NYC and surrounding areas.

[weatherwatchermom]

Serve me some cmc please!! Euro was too far east hammers you know where. Not concerned 4 days out. But 00z cmc was the best run 12 plus smack over NYC and surrounding areas.

Can you post maps please

[WeatherBob]

Hey Mom, your a little demanding there so early in the morning

[nutleyblizzard]

EPS is west of EURO OP!!!

[jmanley32]

Not now just woke for a few to check. Once I get to computer later I can. It's still ways out so snow maps will vary widely.

[jmanley32]

EPS is west of EURO OP!!!

that's good cuz euro was nearly a swing and a miss.

[weatherwatchermom]

Hey Mom, your a little demanding there so early in the morning

sorry morning person with lots of energy

[weatherwatchermom]

Not now just woke for a few to check. Once I get to computer later I can. It's still ways out so snow maps will vary widely.

no worries was curious

[billg315]

Haven’t seen Euro overnight I’m guessing from talk here it went east. Discount that for now. 6z GFS has opposite issue if anything it may be a little TOO close to the coast for NYC, shore and points east. Upper level is easily colde enough for snow (much better than last Friday) everywhere but maybe eastern end of LI, but storm being so close may bring in enough warm air to change coast, immediate NYC, LI to rain or mix. They would go back to snow as storm pulls away. Surface temps are marginal but not bad mostly in low to mid 30s. The 6z NAM wasn’t completely in range but seems to show the storm a little further east than gfs. Just enough maybe to keep all areas mostly snow (except extreme South Jersey). Need to see 12z NAM to be sure.

[billg315]

Three things I continue to like about this:
1. System starts with much colder air in place at surface and aloft than last system. Not as cold as I’d like it but better than Friday which actually still worked out for people just to our N&W. Also snow may continue after dark Wednesday which is a better time for accumulation.
2. I like when surface low develops further south (NC/VA) because it gives it more time to deepen and organize as it moves north toward and past us.
3. Unlike last system models seem consistent in general placement of low and cold air. So while coastal areas have mixing concerns (as they always will with March storms) there is at least a little more consensus away from the coast for snow.
Three things I don’t like:
1. A north and west trend as we’ve had this year could kill us with this one. GFS was already a little too close to coast for my liking and produces mix/rain issues NYC east. Any further west and this could be a slop fest at best;
2. This storm may not be as strong do areas that stay cold enough for snow may not be in heaviest precip.
3. During day Wed. even with colder temps we’re still mostly above freezing so stickage at outset is still as Mike pointed out a concern.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

See what a difference the 64 box of crayolas makes. Much improved and boundaries too.

Many people targeted for revenge here, I can understand most but why Jman, the wind fetish?. I understand targeting me but why must Doc and Damien suffer for my sins.

If this somehow verifies, and anything is possible after the oddities involved with the last storm, you should be named Administrator of the day.

[sroc4]

Three things I continue to like about this:
1. System starts with much colder air in place at surface and aloft than last system. Not as cold as I’d like it but better than Friday which actually still worked out for people just to our N&W. Also snow may continue after dark Wednesday which is a better time for accumulation.
2. I like when surface low develops further south (NC/VA) because it gives it more time to deepen and organize as it moves north toward and past us.
3. Unlike last system models seem consistent in general placement of low and cold air. So while coastal areas have mixing concerns (as they always will with March storms) there is at least a little more consensus away from the coast for snow.
Three things I don’t like:
1. A north and west trend as we’ve had this year could kill us with this one. GFS was already a little too close to coast for my liking and produces mix/rain issues NYC east. Any further west and this could be a slop fest at best;
2. This storm may not be as strong do areas that stay cold enough for snow may not be in heaviest precip.
3. During day Wed. even with colder temps we’re still mostly above freezing so stickage at outset is still as Mike pointed out a concern.

Great points Bill. I started a new thread for this one outlining much of what you just did.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Three things I continue to like about this:
1. System starts with much colder air in place at surface and aloft than last system. Not as cold as I’d like it but better than Friday which actually still worked out for people just to our N&W. Also snow may continue after dark Wednesday which is a better time for accumulation.
2. I like when surface low develops further south (NC/VA) because it gives it more time to deepen and organize as it moves north toward and past us.
3. Unlike last system models seem consistent in general placement of low and cold air. So while coastal areas have mixing concerns (as they always will with March storms) there is at least a little more consensus away from the coast for snow.
Three things I don’t like:
1. A north and west trend as we’ve had this year could kill us with this one. GFS was already a little too close to coast for my liking and produces mix/rain issues NYC east. Any further west and this could be a slop fest at best;
2. This storm may not be as strong do areas that stay cold enough for snow may not be in heaviest precip.
3. During day Wed. even with colder temps we’re still mostly above freezing so stickage at outset is still as Mike pointed out a concern.

Great points Bill.  I started a new thread for this one outlining much of what you just did.  

Point number 3 of things you don't like is huge and really reared it's ugly head in the last storm. It snowed pretty consistently up by me from noon to 5 and I had maybe another inch added to the 8 inch total. If this was mostly a nighttime event or even got cranking late afternoon into the evening I'd be even more optimistic for this one than I already am. Timing will definitely play a role in accumulations. Sroc seems to think it will be a little later IMO that helps a lot.

[jmanley32]

The CMC has 4 LP miss us off the coast from 7th to 13th, wth!

[track17]

Jman I would not worry the cmc is always wrong now let's just see what the nam says. Remember the nam has been by far the best model the past few yrs

[jmanley32]

Looks like the 12th system has a shot at being a doozy in terms of intensity over this one.

[jmanley32]

Jman I would not worry the cmc is always wrong now let's just see what the nam says. Remember the nam has been by far the best model the past few yrs

Yeah doesnt seem many give it any thought anymore, they used too but i guess its not worth looking at, saves me 5 minutes lol

[dkodgis]

Oh my gosh, Syos...I love the snow map.

I am saying 'Yes to the map"

[jmanley32]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

See what a difference the 64 box of crayolas makes. Much improved and boundaries too.

Many people targeted for revenge here, I can understand most but why Jman, the wind fetish?. I understand targeting me but why must Doc and Damien suffer for my sins.

If this somehow verifies, and anything is possible after the oddities involved with the last storm, you should be named Administrator of the day.

Well CP its not just me that blue dot includes Al, and Soul too. What did we do to the snow gods and syo? LOL

[amugs]

I am telling you Mondayish storm is a Miller A with a 50/50 low and -NAO west based block that is waning with a PNA stable in Neutral to slight positive and EPO is still N. We have a pac jet retraction causing a split. This is the one that could be one we talk about for a while IF things come together as I see it.

[amugs]

WOW EPS - ME LIKEY!!!!!!!!!

CIty on East needs to see this east of the tucked in LP



Circle LP's are fine for a NE Projection, the ones to just left of the line are good also very good. The -NAO will do its work here

[Frank_Wx]

We're not short of winter storm threats. Another one to watch for around the 12th.

[amugs]

No rest for the weary here peeps Nor part Tres!


C

[jmanley32]

No rest for the weary here peeps Nor part Tres!


C

Jeeze that looks like it could have the power of Fridays storm? But deliver more uniform snow like hopefully Wed will?

[dkodgis]

And there is the Sun into Mon storm!

[amugs]

GOOFUS
Perfect position for Monday here

[Frank_Wx]

Been awhile since I said this. But we could be tracking a Roidzilla come Sunday into Monday next week. Today's 12z GFS...

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