Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Frank, any mixing issues as of now for the coast here?

Smittyaj623 wrote:Frank, any mixing issues as of now for the coast here?

Probably

I agree with Frank that conceptually viewing this as one storm (albeit complex) is probably easier, especially since some models show very little break in the action between Thing 1 and Thing 2. That said, clearly the bigger impacts will be felt during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night so I think that will catch more people's attention than Tuesday (except for those south where Tuesday may provide more accumulation).

Thanks for the answer, Frank. It was really clear and concise. It's important to me. Since being an observer on Bill's old board and then moving over here, I feel I'm ready to start really learning how to read some of these models and trying to understand more.

I've never seen this map depiction before but considering the type of storm that there may be mixing issues and that there may be accumulation problems at time during the daytime Wednesday this may give a better idea of what will look actually accumulate than the other maps being shown.

Since I've never seen it before there's of course a decent probability that it won't.

I really am apprehensive about part 1 or wave 1 whatever you wanna call it. If it gets too amped it may shunt the baroclinic zone too far south OR rob the energy from part two killing the dynamics. I don’t like seeing so much potential for tomorrow

Here's the first frame from the 12z GFS:

syosnow94 wrote:I really am apprehensive about part 1 or wave 1 whatever you wanna call it.  If it gets too amped it may shunt the baroclinic zone too far south OR rob the energy from part two killing the dynamics.  I don’t like seeing so much potential for tomorrow

Both of our opinions combined probably don't equal 10% of a Frank, Scott or RB but I agree with everything you said.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I really am apprehensive about part 1 or wave 1 whatever you wanna call it.  If it gets too amped it may shunt the baroclinic zone too far south OR rob the energy from part two killing the dynamics.  I don’t like seeing so much potential for tomorrow

Both of our opinions combined probably don't equal 10% of a Frank, Scott or RB but I agree with everything you said.

10% huh. So if my opinion is worth about 50% than you are a -40%

12z GFS coming in now. Precip gets as far north as NYC but very light. Steady precip into CNJ. Waiting on the rest of the run

GFS looks amped! Less confluence too.

11am Wednesday GFS

2pm Wednesday - MADONNE

12z GFS shows generally light mix of rain, sleet and snow during the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening - mostly south of I-80, from Thing 1. Let's see where it goes with Thing 2 Wednesday.

HOLY SH$%

5pm Wednesday - STALLED

Frank_Wx wrote:5pm Wednesday - STALLED

Stalling feature seems to have agreement from NAM, GFS, and Euro. We have a consensus it seems

9pm Wednesday

The location of the mid level lows are off the coast and STACKED. That is huge. Also, GFS never gets precip rate right with coastal storms. I would not pay too much attention to that. But here is the snow map...Philly CRUSHED

well then. GFS says all hands on deck. Wednesday should be interesting times around here.

Precip starts 5pm Tuesday and shuts off 6am Thursday...

The GFS if right get good precip east of the Hudson for the Hudson valley. will see

Great 12Z model runs thus far. I would not get too hung up on snow maps just yet. Pay more attention to storm track and how the upper levels look. Its gorgeous. I would like to see the 2nd low make it further north in future runs to a more benchmark track. Otherwise this event screams Godzilla folks!

Isotherm has spoken and we should ALLLLLLLLL listen:

When you see the GFS this cold in the low-levels, one can rest assured that sticking will not be an issue.