Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Ouch 3km nam was terrible . I would have expected it to be similar to 12km.

jmanley32 wrote:Ouch 3km nam was terrible .

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%2918%3C520%3AWTWAAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ouch 3km nam was terrible .

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%2918%3C520%3AWTWAAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

like I'm gonna understand a peer reviewed journal article about weather lol

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ouch 3km nam was terrible .

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%2918%3C520%3AWTWAAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

like I'm gonna understand a peer reviewed journal article about weather lol

Just read the Abstract

just saw something on youtube "in2thinair".met is saying there a possible 3 more nor'easter coming down the pike 3/29 and 4/1..tried 2 post it in here but can't

mwilli5783 wrote:just saw something on youtube "in2thinair".met is saying there a possible 3 more nor'easter coming down the pike 3/29 and 4/1..tried 2 post it in here but can't

They have both popped up on various long range models at times already.

We shall see, lets reel in this one first.

RGEM

For Sayreville NJ

Tuesday NightRain, possibly mixed with snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 5am, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Low around 32. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
WednesdayRain, snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain before noon, then snow and sleet between noon and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. High near 34. Breezy, with a north wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 31. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

43* and clear here at sunset. With clear skies and light winds temp is expected to drop to the low 20s here tonight. Of the four nor’easters this month, we should be heading into this one with the coldest of air in place (ironic as it’s the latest in the season of the four).

To be honest if we get down to 23* tonight, I’m not sure I even get above freezing tomorrow with cloud cover and light precip (snow sleet or rain) from Thing 1.

weatherwatchermom wrote:what the heck..

Accuweather

Snowfall amount from Wednesday - Thursday
1 - 3 inches [/b

Weather Channel

Winter Storm Watch for Western Monmouth County, New Jersey
From 2:00pm EDT, Tue Mar 20 until 11:00pm EDT, Wed Mar 21

Action Recommended: Make preparations per the instructions
Issued by: Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service,
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES, AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. * [

This sucker has been seeming to keep ticking more and more North and West with each run if I'm analyzing the posts correctly. Seems like with each subsequent run the Jersey coast gets the shaft on this one...

nujerzeedevil wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:what the heck..

Accuweather

Snowfall amount from Wednesday - Thursday
1 - 3 inches [/b

Weather Channel

Winter Storm Watch for Western Monmouth County, New Jersey
From 2:00pm EDT, Tue Mar 20 until 11:00pm EDT, Wed Mar 21

Action Recommended: Make preparations per the instructions
Issued by: Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service,
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES, AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. * [

This sucker has been seeming to keep ticking more and more North and West with each run if I'm analyzing the posts correctly. Seems like with each subsequent run the Jersey coast gets the shaft on this one...

You’re not analyzing them right. Trust in the guys in here. ACCUWEATHER SUCJS. BY FAR THE WIRST WEATHER APP

I’m going to pretend I didn’t see the 18z nam and I’ll wait for 0z lol

Here is my first (and likely final) call Snow Map. Almost all of this is from midnight tomorrow night until 5 am Thursday except far south and west where they may get a quick couple inches during the day or evening tomorrow.
Gray: 1-3”
Purple: 3-5”
Blue: 5-10”
Orange: 10-15” (mainly snow but a brief period of sleet in some areas Wed. AM)
Yellow: 5-10” (extended periods of frz.rain and sleet - some heavy - mixing so lower totals despite periods of heavy snow at times).

Nice Bill similar to mine. Everything about 20 miles further west than me

I think mixing is a big issue in yellow area. I think the mixing will affect even some of orange area - just not as long. I was just saying to one of our colleagues on here I could see a driving sleet/frz rain/rain-snow mix all day in the yellow area with very little accumulation, but then a quick 4-5” of snow in 3 or 4 hours Wed. Evening.

I did not have as much time as I hoped this evening to write-up a synopsis of the storm, but here is my 1st call snow map. I would pay attention to what's already happening. 

*Colder temps are settling in - colder than last storm - over the area
*Severe thunderstorms are rampaging the southeast and this convection will play a part in our storm
*Mid-level lows will favorably close off in Mid-Atlantic and remain stacked just off the coast



*Map includes both waves
*Map is strictly snow and does not include sleet
*Area of sleet is likely in southern PA, south-central and central NJ into portions of NNJ and NYC tomorrow with minor snow accumulations

Of course in the screw zone again, "minor snow accumulations" The 8-12 is hard to tell if its including southern westchester or not. Guessing 4-8 (which is minor?) but borders on 8-12. I like bills better lol

Hallelujah praise the lord. Frank started officially recognizing on his maps that the north shore of LI is it’s own micro climate

Great map guy.
What made you back off the Godzilla totals. Not complaining by the way. 8”+ this time of year is phenomenal

billg315 wrote:Here is my first (and likely final) call Snow Map. Almost all of this is from midnight tomorrow night until 5 am Thursday except far south and west where they may get a quick couple inches during the day or evening tomorrow.
Gray: 1-3”
Purple: 3-5”
Blue: 5-10”
Orange: 10-15” (mainly snow but a brief period of sleet in some areas Wed. AM)
Yellow: 5-10” (extended periods of frz.rain and sleet - some heavy - mixing so lower totals despite periods of heavy snow at times).

Like your map, but I think the green was unecessary unless u wanna know how much snow will accumulate on your boat while at sea, which would be doub in a bombing out storm lol

scroll says either mothrazilla or godzilla still on table.

Alex Whats the story on the 18z Nam??

The 00z SREFS and ARW's are not running tonight. 00z's already off to an inauspicious start. Can't handle this.

Jman any snow this time of the year is golden. With Frank's map I would have a 20 mile cricle around the city with 4 in max at this point. Just my opinion and experience with these March storms