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Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

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Post by gigs68 Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...

What comes after which means?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:22 pm

gigs68 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...

What comes after which means?

Godzilla Storm Mode will be activated later today unless I do the responsible thing and hold off until tomorrow morning since we're still 60 hours away. But I am very confident in this set-up, as shown in my post on page 1.

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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:23 pm

which means time to stock up on some good beer and Nutella.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:23 pm

Put that in ur snow pipe and smoke it!

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 02289410
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:25 pm

JMA

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif.26203edf891ca7b03066111924b5f191

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif.7917e78732bca3f00385c4bef63c666a

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Post by mikeypizano Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
gigs68 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...

What comes after which means?

Godzilla Storm Mode will be activated later today unless I do the responsible thing and hold off until tomorrow morning since we're still 60 hours away. But I am very confident in this set-up, as shown in my post on page 1.

DO IT!!!!
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Post by Guest Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:43 pm

Incorporate my Godzilla roar into the homepage somehow so when you open the homepage you get a roar

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Post by dkodgis Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:45 pm

CP, you can't visit clients and they cannot visit you unless the roads are safe; knowing the weather is the responsible thing to do.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:49 pm

SREFS

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 D8E0388D-06D3-4763-A752-B8A2DC89BA3F.thumb.png.955381176b8765bf08ff1464bb8ff58b

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:50 pm

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Godzilla-dancing-o
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:53 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Godzilla-dancing-o

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Giphy11
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Post by lglickman1 Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:56 pm

Are the SREFs in range yer?

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:57 pm

Euro!!! Da crusher Godzilla high winds with wave 2.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:00 pm

Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

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Post by Smittyaj623 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:04 pm

Holy some SREF members are showing a roidzilla Posssible....

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?

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Post by gigs68 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:10 pm

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?

High winds will keep snow ratios down because snowflakes will fracture and lose their lacy structure (Per NOAA)


Last edited by gigs68 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:11 pm

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?

Dendrite's are typically smaller

Also,

EPS coming in with a big hit too

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Image.png.c42f97d88509b906acd2b5a460d29494

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Post by amugs Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:15 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Are the SREFs in range yer?

Yes and they have not wavered remarkable for this model.

Misse dtis due to class and a meeting but my phone and computer was going nuts with updates!
BRING IT HOME FRANK!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:15 pm

when can we get excited? I am not expecting to get a godzilla..just want a snow storm!
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Post by amugs Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:17 pm

WOW!
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_5710

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:22 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:when can we get excited? I am not expecting to get a godzilla..just want a snow storm!

A snowstorm?

Get excited now.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:23 pm

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 5ab00dc473a10_eps_snow_c_ma_13march19control.png.d31e29ac937869481a7a5a95d7dac1d3

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:24 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City
is this a high wind warning possible storm? Or advisory in your opinion? Well if euro is actually higher than it shows I'd still see near a foot at 8 to 1 I'll b happy with 10 but gosh I hope for a crush.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:26 pm

Dear lord eps at those totals the Indies gotta have some roids in there!
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:Well as expected we have seen models go back and forth; to and fro, and the final soln wouldn't show its self until at least Monday.  Pattern recognition and model consistency, these two things will lead the way.  The NAM, although has performed relatively well this winter has been very erratic with its surface output the past 24hrs.  However it has looked similar at H5 to the Euro.  One thing that MUST be kept in mind will be how far the northern frindge of the precip actually gets vs how far north it appears to get in modeling will likely be different.  In all likelyhood the northern frindge will be further than modeled.  

I don't have the time to do an in depth analysis so I will simply post the EPS individual members snow map trand.  Pay little attention to the actual amounts on these maps, but rather the trend in snow axis placement, and notice the number of members zeroing in on a warning criteria type event for the last 4 runs beginning with 12z on the 17th and ending with last nights 00z.

12Z 17th:

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn26
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn27

00z 18th:


Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn28
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn29

12z 18th:

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn30
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn31

00z 19th:

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn32
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn33

BOOYAA GRANDMA>>>BOOYA!!
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn35
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn34

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