Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...
What comes after which means?
gigs68- Posts : 142
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
gigs68 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...
What comes after which means?
Godzilla Storm Mode will be activated later today unless I do the responsible thing and hold off until tomorrow morning since we're still 60 hours away. But I am very confident in this set-up, as shown in my post on page 1.
Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
which means time to stock up on some good beer and Nutella.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Put that in ur snow pipe and smoke it!
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
JMA
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:gigs68 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...
What comes after which means?
Godzilla Storm Mode will be activated later today unless I do the responsible thing and hold off until tomorrow morning since we're still 60 hours away. But I am very confident in this set-up, as shown in my post on page 1.
DO IT!!!!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Incorporate my Godzilla roar into the homepage somehow so when you open the homepage you get a roar
Guest- Guest
Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
CP, you can't visit clients and they cannot visit you unless the roads are safe; knowing the weather is the responsible thing to do.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
SREFS
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RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Are the SREFs in range yer?
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Euro!!! Da crusher Godzilla high winds with wave 2.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?
It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).
To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Holy some SREF members are showing a roidzilla Posssible....
Smittyaj623- Posts : 73
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?
It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).
To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City
Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
aiannone wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?
It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).
To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City
Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?
High winds will keep snow ratios down because snowflakes will fracture and lose their lacy structure (Per NOAA)
Last edited by gigs68 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
gigs68- Posts : 142
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
aiannone wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?
It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).
To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City
Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?
Dendrite's are typically smaller
Also,
EPS coming in with a big hit too
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
lglickman1 wrote:Are the SREFs in range yer?
Yes and they have not wavered remarkable for this model.
Misse dtis due to class and a meeting but my phone and computer was going nuts with updates!
BRING IT HOME FRANK!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
when can we get excited? I am not expecting to get a godzilla..just want a snow storm!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
WOW!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
weatherwatchermom wrote:when can we get excited? I am not expecting to get a godzilla..just want a snow storm!
A snowstorm?
Get excited now.
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
is this a high wind warning possible storm? Or advisory in your opinion? Well if euro is actually higher than it shows I'd still see near a foot at 8 to 1 I'll b happy with 10 but gosh I hope for a crush.Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?
It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).
To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Dear lord eps at those totals the Indies gotta have some roids in there!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
sroc4 wrote:Well as expected we have seen models go back and forth; to and fro, and the final soln wouldn't show its self until at least Monday. Pattern recognition and model consistency, these two things will lead the way. The NAM, although has performed relatively well this winter has been very erratic with its surface output the past 24hrs. However it has looked similar at H5 to the Euro. One thing that MUST be kept in mind will be how far the northern frindge of the precip actually gets vs how far north it appears to get in modeling will likely be different. In all likelyhood the northern frindge will be further than modeled.
I don't have the time to do an in depth analysis so I will simply post the EPS individual members snow map trand. Pay little attention to the actual amounts on these maps, but rather the trend in snow axis placement, and notice the number of members zeroing in on a warning criteria type event for the last 4 runs beginning with 12z on the 17th and ending with last nights 00z.
12Z 17th:
00z 18th:
12z 18th:
00z 19th:
BOOYAA GRANDMA>>>BOOYA!!
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.00
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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