Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:26 pm

Dear lord eps at those totals the Indies gotta have some roids in there!

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:Well as expected we have seen models go back and forth; to and fro, and the final soln wouldn't show its self until at least Monday. Pattern recognition and model consistency, these two things will lead the way. The NAM, although has performed relatively well this winter has been very erratic with its surface output the past 24hrs. However it has looked similar at H5 to the Euro. One thing that MUST be kept in mind will be how far the northern frindge of the precip actually gets vs how far north it appears to get in modeling will likely be different. In all likelyhood the northern frindge will be further than modeled.

I don't have the time to do an in depth analysis so I will simply post the EPS individual members snow map trand. Pay little attention to the actual amounts on these maps, but rather the trend in snow axis placement, and notice the number of members zeroing in on a warning criteria type event for the last 4 runs beginning with 12z on the 17th and ending with last nights 00z.

12Z 17th:

00z 18th:

12z 18th:

00z 19th:

BOOYAA GRANDMA>>>BOOYA!!
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 20 Eps_sn35

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 20 Eps_sn34

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:33 pm

Good analog for this storm. So it seems...

by emokid51783 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:34 pm

I go to the doctors and come back to this....jeez louise....game time

by **jimv45** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:35 pm

Albany buying it!! Winter Storm watch up for me.

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:36 pm

Updated Mt Holly map
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 20 59056310

by **billg315** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:39 pm

NWS Mount Holly issues Winter Storm Watch:

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible....mainly as snow
though some sleet and light freezing rain is possible Tuesday
night. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with
localized amounts up to 12 inches, and ice accumulations of up
to one tenth of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant
reductions in visibility are possible. Roads in the hilly areas
may become impassable if 1 to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates
develop as expected Wednesday afternoon. Power outages are
possible. Northeast to north winds should gust 20 to 30 mph at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

by **Taffy** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:41 pm

Still nothing for me from Upton.

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:42 pm

aiannone wrote:Updated Mt Holly map

ok now I am excited!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:43 pm

And as always, the ass backwards steve D map that he changes during the storm!
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 20 Captur65

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:44 pm

^

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:44 pm

Upton always last it's coming relax prolly be a bit more conservative but I think 8 to 12 going right across from Jersey is in fair play.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:47 pm

Upton right now has wsw for northern counties of ct WTH. I thought the coast was go benefit. Has same as nj. In between nothing noted how can that b

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:48 pm

Here is the latest for LI from TWC for what it's worth:
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 20 Captur15

by **dsix85** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:49 pm

Coastal Flood Advisory up for Suffolk.

by **dsix85** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:49 pm

Alex- that forecast has been posted since 7am this morning FYI.

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Upton right now has wsw for northern counties of ct WTH. I thought the coast was go benefit. Has same as nj. In between nothing noted how can that b

The area you are describing is Albany's CWA

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:50 pm

dsix85 wrote:Alex- that forecast has been posted since 7am this morning FYI.

If you are referring to Steve D's map, his latest tweet says he's still happy with it

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:52 pm

I expect Upton will update soon.

by **dsix85** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:53 pm

WSW now posted for Suffolk

by **dsix85** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:54 pm

aiannone wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Alex- that forecast has been posted since 7am this morning FYI.

If you are referring to Steve D's map, his latest tweet says he's still happy with it

No I was referring to The Weather Channel App

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:54 pm

Lol literally the minute I typed that I got my wsw alert 5 to 11 higher possible wet snow. Add wind we got more power issues coming.

by **RJB8525** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Lol literally the minute I typed that I got my wsw alert 5 to 11 higher possible wet snow. Add wind we got more power issues coming.

they heard you

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:55 pm

352 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total wet snow accumulations of
5 to 9 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Long Island and southern Connecticut.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Tree
branches could fall. Significant reductions in visibility are
possible.

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:56 pm

are we going to chat tonight?

by Carter bk Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:59 pm

What the ceiling for this event on the higer end? In nyc

by **Taffy** Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:00 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Lol literally the minute I typed that I got my wsw alert 5 to 11 higher possible wet snow. Add wind we got more power issues coming.

Exactly, Jman. No sooner had I typed that Upton hadn't issued one.....and there it is

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