Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

The 00z SREFS and ARW's are not running tonight. 00z's already off to an inauspicious start. Can't handle this.

Jman any snow this time of the year is golden. With Frank's map I would have a 20 mile cricle around the city with 4 in max at this point. Just my opinion and experience with these March storms

syosnow94 wrote:Hallelujah praise the lord. Frank started officially recognizing on his maps that the north shore of LI is it’s own micro climate

Great map guy.
What made you back off the Godzilla totals. Not complaining by the way. 8”+ this time of year is phenomenal

H5 is sloppy on some models still. I remain confident they will adjust but I can't go balls to the walls just yet. 

I was thinking putting a swath of 10-15, like Bill did, but rather wait until tomorrow.

What about wind Impacts?

RAP model went nuts

jmanley32 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Here is my first (and likely final) call Snow Map. Almost all of this is from midnight tomorrow night until 5 am Thursday except far south and west where they may get a quick couple inches during the day or evening tomorrow.
Gray: 1-3”
Purple: 3-5”
Blue: 5-10”
Orange: 10-15” (mainly snow but a brief period of sleet in some areas Wed. AM)
Yellow: 5-10” (extended periods of frz.rain and sleet - some heavy - mixing so lower totals despite periods of heavy snow at times).

Like your map, but I think the green was unecessary unless u wanna know how much snow will accumulate on your boat while at sea, which would be doub in a bombing out storm lol

Lol. I always throw a green rain zone at the bottom. I guess I just don’t like it blank. Haha.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/19Mar2018-1_external.pdf

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

Ha what?! what happened with the sref that its not running?

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

I’ll take 18-24” with more to come after

From NWS Mt Holly disco:
“Wind driven sleet/freezing rain and wet snow becomes drier from north to south late Wednesday, but too late to forestall what may be the most power outages from any event in our forecast area this March. Ice loads (hopefully sleet, harder to remove from pavement but less of a tree/wire load) starts this event out south of I-78, with precipitation changing to wet snow in that area Wednesday morning. Six inches of 32-33F is my own trigger for empirically derived notable power outage increase. We`ll try to use some minimal snow loads as a predictor late this afternoon in a social media post toward 6 PM. The primary threat region for this is not determined as of yet and may not be finalized til we see what happens Tuesday. For now with think south of I-78 and especially Wednesday afternoon-evening.“

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

If that’s true I’ve drastically underestimated. Lol

jmanley32 wrote:Of course in the screw zone again, "minor snow accumulations" The 8-12 is hard to tell if its including southern westchester or not.  Guessing 4-8 (which is minor?) but borders on 8-12. I like bills better lol

Jman it’s late march and you’re surrounded by concrete. 4-8” is not a screw job. Shoot I’ll sign for it right now

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

Frank quick question about the RAP. According to many this model is never to be taken serious because it pumps out "excessive" numbers which border on unrealistic, when should the RAP be taken at "face value" if at all? And if not, why then is it a model at all? Lastly, is this RAP model scenario even possible?

billg315 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

If that’s true I’ve drastically underestimated. Lol

If thats true mr. roidzilla will need be hoisted, forget godzilla, where do I sign? lets hope this is a sign of the nam and other SR models but I find that model pretty wild.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

Ha what?! what happened with the sref that its not running?

Russians hacked it

skinsfan1177 wrote:What about wind Impacts?

20-30mph gusts excess of 40. Not good with heavy wet snow.

adamfitz1969 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

Frank quick question about the RAP. According to many this model is never to be taken serious because it pumps out "excessive" numbers which border on unrealistic, when should the RAP be taken at "face value" if at all? And if not, why then is it a model at all? Lastly, is this RAP model scenario even possible?

I never use the RAP and for good reason. It has a very poor track record. There was talk they may discontinue it.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RAP model went nuts

Wait, this is just for tomorrow afternoon and night. Not including Wednesday's snow.

HAHAHA

No that's through 50 hours which would be almost midnight Wednesday night?

Now the NAM might be delayed.

Crap, time for bed?

syosnow94 wrote:

Yellow. 6-10” snow   Briefly starting as a period of sleet
Green.  3-6” snow
Blue. 2-4” snow  except CP who will somehow miraculously measure 8"
Red. C-2” snow.

Little red circle around NYC is area that may not accumulate due to Urban Heat Island

For those who missed my map this morning

00z NAM 12km and 3km better be good, I have a feeling they might.

Frank_Wx wrote:Now the NAM might be delayed.

Crap, time for bed?

Just stick it out till 10:30. Then make a positive post sending us all to bed happy

SREF did not run because of 1 rogue member...

NOUS42 KWNO 200137 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0129Z TUE MAR 20 2018 SOME 21Z SREF PRODUCTS ARE RUNNING LATE DUE TO A FCST FAILURE OF THE WRFARW_N1 MEMBER. ANALYSTS ARE INVESTIGATING THE FAILURE. SMART INIT GRIDS WILL ALSO BE DELAYED. THE 00Z NAM HAS STARTED ON TIME.. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 78988/CUR - 10142 76692/HYY - 10158 76654/MZL - 10158 76458/MZT - 10158 76405/LAP - 10158 70398/ANN - 10148 70316/CDB - 10148 70414/SYA - SHORT TO 690MB SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP



00z NAM HAS STARTED!!!!

jmanley32 wrote:00z NAM 12km and 3km better be good, I have a feeling they might.

Frank said inauspicious runs so far tonight. Not a good sign

Frank nam started on wxbell.

okay but the maps are blank and say entire grid undefined