Re: Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:36 am

billg315 wrote:
DAYBLAZER wrote:According to the latest forecast for Hopatcong, they are calling for anywhere from 3-6 inches (possibly more if the cold air hangs on) followed by a prolonged period of sleet and potentially freezing rain, up to 1/4 inch possible.

The second half of that forecast concerns me far more than the snow. It would be very unusual to have such a prolonged period of sleet/ice and I think that's what could end being the real story up here.

Now I know that ice forecasts generally bust in this area. Is there any indication that this storm will be any different and buck that trend?

Most of the models are pretty consistent on keeping the cold in place at the lower levels for prolonged sleet and freezing rain, so while its not common, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the way it goes. Where you are I think you will get a nice front end thump of snow, because the warm upper levels will take longer to move in there so the transition from snow to sleet (which may happen quickly for some people especially if this starts late) will take longer there.

Interesting. Well I'll take whatever I can get at this point. Thanks for the insight

I also see the morning commute being extremely impacted if the timing of this holds true. If this thing doesn't get going until 4-5 AM, you may have quite the situation on the roads if people leave for work under the impression that this will all quickly transition to rain. I'm thinking the I-80 and I-78 corridors are especially at risk here.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:42 am

I'm ok with prolonged sleet in a winter storm (not freezing rain - I hate ice storms) if there is a good base of snow first (like that 1993 storm). Can be sort of fun to watch. But sleet itself, with no front-end snow would not be very exciting for me. lol.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:44 am

DAYBLAZER wrote:
billg315 wrote:
DAYBLAZER wrote:According to the latest forecast for Hopatcong, they are calling for anywhere from 3-6 inches (possibly more if the cold air hangs on) followed by a prolonged period of sleet and potentially freezing rain, up to 1/4 inch possible.

The second half of that forecast concerns me far more than the snow. It would be very unusual to have such a prolonged period of sleet/ice and I think that's what could end being the real story up here.

Now I know that ice forecasts generally bust in this area. Is there any indication that this storm will be any different and buck that trend?

Most of the models are pretty consistent on keeping the cold in place at the lower levels for prolonged sleet and freezing rain, so while its not common, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the way it goes. Where you are I think you will get a nice front end thump of snow, because the warm upper levels will take longer to move in there so the transition from snow to sleet (which may happen quickly for some people especially if this starts late) will take longer there.

Interesting. Well I'll take whatever I can get at this point. Thanks for the insight

I also see the morning commute being extremely impacted if the timing of this holds true. If this thing doesn't get going until 4-5 AM, you may have quite the situation on the roads if people leave for work under the impression that this will all quickly transition to rain. I'm thinking the I-80 and I-78 corridors are especially at risk here.

In a way, a later start could make this worse (thinking back to November). If we had a few hours of snow before the rush hour, many people might just stay home. But if the snow is just starting at rush hour and then changes over to prolonged sleet, many people will be on the roads already as they deteriorate. I think for most people north of I-78 the PM rush could be a mess too.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:15 pm

The Nam crushes NNJ with a long period of sleet after some snow... travel is going to be quite hazardous tomorrow. And ironically, North Jersey Weather Observers who I am part of had a meeting with meteorologist Jeff Berardelli scheduled for tomorrow night! Time to follow obs moving in...

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:27 pm

Anyone have the latest NAM? Would love to see how long it forecasts the sleet to last.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:30 pm

Also as far as timing-- I would think we are close enough to the event at this point that we should be able to tell approximately when the precipitation will truly begin (or at least within a few hours). Any early indication on when this will ACTUALLY start based on what they are seeing on the radar as this storm takes shape?

I ask because I know there was a big discrepancy between models as far as start time, so I'm curious as to what any more experienced Mets out there are seeing as this thing sets up.

by le88kb Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:13 pm

are we talking a wash away rain or just making a mess rain . need to plan company plowing .

by **amugs** Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:28 pm

le88kb wrote:are we talking a wash away rain or just making a mess rain . need to plan company plowing .

For you in Pequonneck it will be a A LOT of sleet and the rains may not come in until 8-9PM - and that is the back end of the storm with little rains. The latest EURO is much colder at the surface and at the mid levels of 850 and 700 as well as at the surface. We need to see if other guidance follows this suite the 12Z GFS was teh first to show this and then the NAM and now the EURO so a colder solution seems to be on tap - less front end snow overall but way more sleet and possible ZR as we transition into rain for NNJ peeps.

Here the progressions:
Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2m_nyc_4

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2m_nyc_4

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2m_nyc_5

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2m_nyc_6

COLD AIR HANGING TOUGH
Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2m_nyc_7

This would be bad.

by **docstox12** Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:34 pm

amugs wrote:
le88kb wrote:are we talking a wash away rain or just making a mess rain . need to plan company plowing .

For you in Pequonneck it will be a A LOT of sleet and the rains may not come in until 8-9PM - and that is the back end of the storm with little rains. The latest EURO is much colder at the surface and at the mid levels of 850 and 700 as well as at the surface. We need to see if other guidance follows this suite the 12Z GFS was teh first to show this and then the NAM and now the EURO so a colder solution seems to be on tap - less front end snow overall but way more sleet and possible ZR as we transition into rain for NNJ peeps.

Here the progressions:

COLD AIR HANGING TOUGH

Ugh! I am starting to forget what an all snow 12 inch event is like, it's been nearly 3 months here since that occurred Nov 15th.Enough with these slop scenarios already

This would be bad.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:35 pm

Unfortunately I can't view whatever maps you just posted Amugs...I get an access forbidden message. Perhaps it's just my computer though.

by **amugs** Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:01 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:Unfortunately I can't view whatever maps you just posted Amugs...I get an access forbidden message. Perhaps it's just my computer though.

DAY it is just showing how you hold onto the cold through the 8PM hour as Sleet adn ZR as teh surface temps are about 30* up by you.
This has evolved from a snowstorm to an ice storm basically but it wont qualify as one.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:06 pm

amugs wrote:DAY it is just showing how you hold onto the cold through the 8PM hour as Sleet adn ZR as teh surface temps are about 30* up by you.
This has evolved from a snowstorm to an ice storm basically but it wont qualify as one.

Gotcha. So I'm guessing I shouldn't be heading to work tomorrow morning. Start time still looking around 3-4 AM?

Also curious why won't this qualify as an ice storm up here? More sleet than ice?

by **frank 638** Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:11 pm

Does anyone know how long the city will stay all sleet before it changes to rain

by **billg315** Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:28 pm

Models are continuing to show the surface level cold air refusing to budge tomorrow. The 18z NAM doesn't bring temperatures above freezing anywhere north of I-78 until between 5 and 7 p.m. and not really north of I-80 until after 7 p.m. This would indicate that we could be in sleet (and in spots maybe a little freezing rain) for up to 8 hours (!!!). Some areas of North Jersey (especially NW) and the Hudson Valley are in freezing rain or sleet until 10 p.m. or after. The NAM continues with a late start time for NYC area (7 or 8 a.m.) with a short period of snow before the sleet storm sets in. To be honest, if we only see a couple inches of snow but then have heavy sleet for that long, I think you're still going to have noticeable sleet accumulation. Sleet does accumulate, just not as fast as snow.

Frank, right now, NYC does not appear to go to all rain until after 5 p.m.

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:33 pm

This gonna be a mess folks for EPA.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

PAZ060-061-103-105-121100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.190212T0000Z-190213T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.190211T2300Z-190213T0500Z/
Berks-Lehigh-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Reading, Allentown, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
330 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Berks, Lehigh, Western Montgomery and Upper Bucks
counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST Tuesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute
on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

by **algae888** Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:35 pm

The newest nam continues to delay the onset of precipitation for the New York City metro area until 10 a.m. tomorrow morning. It's an hour or two of snow and then sleet. We really needed this thing to move East some to get into the better Dynamics they are too far west over Pennsylvania and southern New York

by **amugs** Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:35 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:
amugs wrote:DAY it is just showing how you hold onto the cold through the 8PM hour as Sleet adn ZR as teh surface temps are about 30* up by you.
This has evolved from a snowstorm to an ice storm basically but it wont qualify as one.

Gotcha. So I'm guessing I shouldn't be heading to work tomorrow morning. Start time still looking around 3-4 AM?

Also curious why won't this qualify as an ice storm up here? More sleet than ice?

Yes at this time it should start around that time frame.
I do not know the criteria for ice storm warnings but I woudl say you are close to that.

From Allan weather - and I think he nails this pretty well

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 DzJIy_XXgAARjhJ

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 DzJIy_XXgAARjhJ

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 DzJI1Y6X0AEO0Yn

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 DzJI2rBWwAAIG-g

by **amugs** Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:42 pm

NWS not buying NAM but we'll see where other guidance is at

NJZ009-010-121100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.190212T0500Z-190213T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.190211T2300Z-190213T0500Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FLEMINGTON AND SOMERVILLE
330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.

* WHERE...HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.

* WHEN...UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING AND EVENING
COMMUTES ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET
AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-121100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.190212T0500Z-190213T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.190212T0500Z-190213T1100Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, JIM THORPE, AND STROUDSBURG
330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.

* WHERE...IN NEW JERSEY, SUSSEX COUNTY. IN PENNSYLVANIA, CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES.

* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING
COMMUTE ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET
AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:45 pm

amugs wrote:NWS not buying NAM but we'll see where other guidance is at

NJZ009-010-121100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.190212T0500Z-190213T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.190211T2300Z-190213T0500Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FLEMINGTON AND SOMERVILLE
330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.

* WHERE...HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.

* WHEN...UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING AND EVENING
COMMUTES ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET
AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-121100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.190212T0500Z-190213T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.190212T0500Z-190213T1100Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, JIM THORPE, AND STROUDSBURG
330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.

* WHERE...IN NEW JERSEY, SUSSEX COUNTY. IN PENNSYLVANIA, CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES.

* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING
COMMUTE ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET
AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

Yeah mugs, that includes my area. They seem to believe the precipitation starts earlier than the NAM and that it stays snow longer before the change to sleet. That is the only way to get to those higher (4-6") totals. We shall see how this all plays out tomorrow, but it is going to be a very interesting nowcast as it happens!

by Frankdp23 Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:19 pm

Yeah mugs, that includes my area. They seem to believe the precipitation starts earlier than the NAM and that it stays snow longer before the change to sleet. That is the only way to get to those higher (4-6") totals. We shall see how this all plays out tomorrow, but it is going to be a very interesting nowcast as it happens![/quote]

I'm in the town next door to you right on the border of Hunterdon Co. I'm a little surprised they went this high. I agree though that it needs to come in earlier to even get to the low end of those projected totals.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:27 pm

Frankdp23 wrote:

Yeah mugs, that includes my area. They seem to believe the precipitation starts earlier than the NAM and that it stays snow longer before the change to sleet. That is the only way to get to those higher (4-6") totals. We shall see how this all plays out tomorrow, but it is going to be a very interesting nowcast as it happens!

I'm in the town next door to you right on the border of Hunterdon Co. I'm a little surprised they went this high. I agree though that it needs to come in earlier to even get to the low end of those projected totals. [/quote]

Yeah, while the "wishcast" part of my brain wants to buy into this, it does seem a little high. The only way I see this happening is if its snowing no later than 6 a.m. and it doesn't change over to sleet until at least noon. Right now I think 2-4" would have been a safer bet for our immediate area, but the truth is, I'm not sure anyone can predict this thing for certain. It really will just be a wait and see as tomorrow rolls around.

by **hyde345** Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:39 pm

NWS Albany just changed my WWA to WSWarning for 6-8 inches of snow and sleet plus up to 1/4 inch of ice. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I am pretty sure surface stays below freezing for duration of event by me.

by **jimv45** Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:46 pm

Hyde just saw that too! Think a lot of that will be sleet.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:09 pm

Winter storm warning for Orange County and Western Passaic County in NJ for 5-7 inches of snow followed by sleet and ice.

A bad time to be without a snow blower but I never had mine repaired after the last snow and ice storm. I may call a plow guy this time I'm not shoveling that crap again. To bad Mikey P lives in Pennsylvania.

by **hyde345** Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:36 pm

jimv45 wrote:Hyde just saw that too! Think a lot of that will be sleet.

Could be. Not looking forward to shoveling sleet.

by **hyde345** Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:39 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Winter storm warning for Orange County and Western Passaic County in NJ for 5-7 inches of snow followed by sleet and ice.

A bad time to be without a snow blower but I never had mine repaired after the last snow and ice storm. I may call a plow guy this time I'm not shoveling that crap again. To bad Mikey P lives in Pennsylvania.

Send him over this way when he's done. Smile

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:10 pm

Just a slight snow gradient here. I'm prepared for 1-6".

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 6 2-11-212

by Sponsored content