Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

amugs wrote:We have a Start Warming event taking place as per the GFS from the EPO heat transport over the Alaska region, longer term colder solution?

So here’s my opinion on any **potential** SSW event, and this was ripped from another discussion with a fellow poster, as well as from a post elsewhere:

“....if we can really get the MJO to gain serious amplitude and propagate SLOWLY through the Maritime Continent, that’s a precursor to a true SSW event with favorable alignment (for our region) thanks to the thermodynamics involved. But, we’d have to both take it on the proverbial chin and deal with another torch of a December and probably first half of January AND THEN hope that it’s enough to seriously weaken the anomalously strong stratospheric vortex in a background/QBO state that lessens the overall receptivity to such perturbation. But I think that would really be our best shot at seeing any prolonged winter regime in the eastern CONUS, and have for some time, as at least conceptually, the conditions are mildly decent for the tropospheric evolution.”

With regard to what is being shown on the GFS Op at hour 384, this will likely continue to be mainly overdone, at least for the foreseeable future unless we get a very impressive tropical forcing response for an extended period (i.e. the MJO/standing wave reach 2-sigma or greater deviation for several weeks). IF I start seeing that, again, it’s PLAUSIBLE that this occurs given the likely positive interference that I think will occur between the standing wave and MJO pulse, but I’m not sure if the verified amplitude will be enough given the pre-existing strength of the PV. That said, ANY positive interference between the tropical convective modes will help to weaken it some if it’s sustained long enough. The question is: Would it be enough to give us hope for prolonged winter weather? Without a true SSW, I honestly don’t think so.

P.S. Yes, my other write up is still in the works - I’ve been forced chip away at it rather than blast it out all at once.

amugs wrote:Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.

GEFS





PNA Neutral - up from Negative


May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here


When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?


That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??


Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S


This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!

EPS say hello for the same time frame

Just quickly looking I definitely think there can be a couple of chances next week beginning with Monday Tuesday time frame. As we head deeper into Dec and esp into Jan these marginal temp events will get more and more favorable due to climatology on our side. For now monitor 500 for Monday Tuesday.

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

If the strat ends up spliting like is being depicted on all of the 12z runs today then its def game on.  That said the long range forcast has a way of tempering itself so I am tempering expectations at the moment.  I worry this is just another head fake.




That said there has been a wave 1 attack underway. The true results of which are likely not completely modeled correctly just yet. Mugsy has posted a diff map showing the warming as well.

get me to Sunday