Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

by **Irish** Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:22 pm

Just checked in at AccuWeather and they had my area at about 37-38 degrees as highs for next Wednesday and Thursday with 1-3 inches of snow. Now they have the high at 33 on Wednesday, 31 on Thursday and 6-10 inches of snow predicted. So even if it's early and too soon to post predicted accumulations, it seems like the runs are getting colder and whiter. Thoughts?

by **amugs** Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:26 pm

GEFS keep the NAO/AO couplet intact past Xmas and has a couple more chances that week as eell- 20to the 25th we may see a ckuple.more storms.
EPO looks to be Nuetral and the PNA is intact in a positive range.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:02 am

amugs wrote:GEFS keep the NAO/AO couplet intact past Xmas and has a couple more chances that week as eell- 20to the 25th we may see a ckuple.more storms.
EPO looks to be Nuetral and the PNA is intact in a positive range.

Sounds awesome, either way just glad to be tracking and potentially having a white Christmas!!

by **Irish** Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:46 am

Irish wrote:Just checked in at AccuWeather and they had my area at about 37-38 degrees as highs for next Wednesday and Thursday with 1-3 inches of snow. Now they have the high at 33 on Wednesday, 31 on Thursday and 6-10 inches of snow predicted. So even if it's early and too soon to post predicted accumulations, it seems like the runs are getting colder and whiter. Thoughts?

Most recent runs now have the Temps topping out at the freezing mark on Wednesday/ Thursday and total storm accumulations of 12-18!

This looks more and more like it's going to happen.

by **amugs** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:59 pm

Okay Ladies and Gents - I maybe able to not only deliver on my Birfday (as the kids i taught in Paterson would say instead of Bir th day!) BUTTTTTT I maybe able to get some on XMAS for all the good little boys and girls now too!!!
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by **billg315** Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:14 pm

Is it just me or do we have a negative NAO and AO forecast through New Years? If so, that could bode well for that percolating Christmas Eve system.

by **amugs** Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:26 pm

billg315 wrote:Is it just me or do we have a negative NAO and AO forecast through New Years? If so, that could bode well for that percolating Christmas Eve system.

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by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:01 pm

Who said warmth and shorts for Xmas last night - your drinking the Nogg!!!! drunken

I was not about to have a fight but I have been on this period as well!!

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COME TO POPPA!!!!! Teles I posted to Bill are in as well!
Don't underestimate my powers peeps LOL!! Laughing

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by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:02 pm

GEFS NICE TROUGH I"D SAY!!

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by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:15 pm

Quite the impressive AAM profile continues across the N Hem with the E'ly (-ve AAM anoms) continuing at higher lats with W'ly anoms through the sub-tropics. It's a pattern that reversed in early Dec and continues. Sure sign that the mid-lats are looking blocked and amplified! pic.twitter.com/EfNdFoDOdF
— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) December 16, 2020

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:16 pm

PV Elongation and ....over Hudson Bay (Doc favorite actor or was it CP LOL!!!) Rock Hudson that is!

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by **billg315** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:17 pm

Definitely keeping an eye on that Christmas system. With the negative NAO/AO forecast it's worth watching. You may be onto something again Mugs!

by **amugs** Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:06 am

Need the trough a tad more east or else this cuts to our west ARGGHH!! Come on PNA, AO and NAO!!

EURO's

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GFS 's

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by **algae888** Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:57 am

Today's CMC isn't far from a major snow event again for Christmas afternoon and night. One thing's for certain it's going to be below normal temperature wise for the next 2 weeks save any pre cold frontal Passage

by **Irish** Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:59 pm

algae888 wrote:Today's CMC isn't far from a major snow event again for Christmas afternoon and night. One thing's for certain it's going to be below normal temperature wise for the next 2 weeks save any pre cold frontal Passage

I'm seeing that as well in the long range. Temps, with the exception of Christmas eve, look close to our below freezing. For my area, TWC currently has snow for Christmas Day 2-4 inches. What a Face

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:06 pm

Any additional snow that falls in December will be extremely thread the needle, similar to yesterday, because the Pacific is a nightmare. There is some hope that the Pacific improves around Jan 1, but still awhile to go until then. In other words, not so impressed with the pattern over the next 2 weeks, but because we'll get shots of cold air, we just need good timing with a wave to get some snow. Not a Godzilla pattern, but some light to moderate events possible.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Any additional snow that falls in December will be extremely thread the needle, similar to yesterday, because the Pacific is a nightmare. There is some hope that the Pacific improves around Jan 1, but still awhile to go until then. In other words, not so impressed with the pattern over the next 2 weeks, but because we'll get shots of cold air, we just need good timing with a wave to get some snow. Not a Godzilla pattern, but some light to moderate events possible.

Mood flakes around Christmas day are always a plus!! beats wearing shorts and a t-shirt!! I could not perm live in a warm climate during the holidays..spend one in Brazil one year..LOVE LOVE Brazil..but it definetly did not feel like the holiday I know...surrounded by palms decorated and sand...lol

by **amugs** Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:44 pm

AND the EURO is showing now Dec 22nd vorticity that drops south into a much better position.
@Frank - Godzilla events are hard to come by of course 1-3 to 3-6 type of events are attainable I think.
Here is from a very good pro met whom I follow and confer with at times

Dec 22nd has real potential ULL drops south and cranks, another mid and upper level dynamic system potentially, I run change per euro pic.twitter.com/yikVytTwK5
— NsfwWx (@NsfwWx) December 17, 2020

by **amugs** Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:48 pm

Xmas eve into Xmas EURO!!
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by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:49 pm

amugs wrote:Xmas eve into Xmas EURO!!

Long way off but weird setup

by **amugs** Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:04 pm

Yes it is CP but we need a few tweaks and we can get this to work.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:45 pm

amugs wrote:Yes it is CP but we need a few tweaks and we can get this to work.

mugs if anyone can will it, you can!!

by **billg315** Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:20 pm

I believe in Christmas miracles, so why not? lol

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:36 pm

That is a odd setup a system giving us snow thats over VT? I am glad to hear temps are go be low so at least maybe the snow will stick around for at least anouther 8 days.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:24 pm

Mugs wave that magic birthday wand

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:11 pm

Came into this thread to see what Mr.Long Range, our amazing Mugsy, has on tap.Lot's of interesting stuff Mugs.You brought this one home, let's try for a little Christmas surprise to freshen the snow pack!

Hey, that brings back a memory from when I was a kid....Mugsy should be The Long Ranger,LOL.

by **amugs** Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:20 pm

Thanks peeps, as I said before and with the grace of the almighty, besides Frank of course, I am putting in a word with Big Momma!! Trying here but I believe if we can get Monday then that can help set up Xmas Eve. Lots of time and even on my bday I am working it peeps!!
Let's enjoy what we have so far and I can see a PV elongation in my crystal ball for a wave 1 and 2 knock around and the culmination of low solar along with numerous VEI 3 and a couple of borderline 4 explosions these past couple of years. Time will tell.
@ Doc - never forget our car ride discussion to the city for our 1st meet up. Need ro do a gtg at Kinchleys with whomever is available with the northern crew CP, Zoo etc. Before Murphys law shuts us down for ......?

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