Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

algae888 wrote:Every meteorologist and weather outlet i follow is calling for a cold and stormy period from about jan 11th thru the end of the month. Around jan 15th a lobe of the PV will be anchored in south eastern canada with a cross polar flow we will see the coldest weather thus far this winter with well below normal temps. Snowstorms are always a uncertainty but i believe we should have at least one. Storm tracks will not be to our west and there is overwhelming evidence that areas south of us have a higher probability of snow than areas north and west of us as suppression is a greater risk than cutters.

I’m not saying we won’t see cold and be stormy. What I’m saying is I don’t think we see a lot of overlap between the two, enough to yield a big snow event for the majority of our posters. I think the big snow event (14-16th) will be largely north and west of us. Just one man’s opinion here.

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

What about the 12-13th period? Both Euro and cmc showing possibility of a wintry event. All you ever talk about is how things aren't going to work out and yet I stand at 19 inches so far and we have alot of winter left.

That’s not fair to say - I never said zero snow with any event this season. I’ve always been discussing my thoughts within the context of the storms’ evolutions and where I thought the snowfall maxima would be, and both times I’ve been correct. I don’t do backyard forecasts specifically for this reason lol

rb924119 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

What about the 12-13th period? Both Euro and cmc showing possibility of a wintry event. All you ever talk about is how things aren't going to work out and yet I stand at 19 inches so far and we have alot of winter left.

That’s not fair to say - I never said zero snow with any event this season. I’ve always been discussing my thoughts within the context of the storms’ evolutions and where I thought the snowfall maxima would be, and both times I’ve been correct. I don’t do backyard forecasts specifically for this reason lol

You kept harping on the dec 16-17th storm not being a big snow maker for NYC metro and points south and east I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong. Central Park recvd 10.5 from that storm and Bronx/yonkers a foot, and parts of Long island reported 7-8 inches. How were you correct? Point is many members of this board from NYC N and W are average to above average in snowfall season to date and the next 2-3 weeks have plenty of potential.

HectorO wrote:

Irish wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

What about the 12-13th period? Both Euro and cmc showing possibility of a wintry event. All you ever talk about is how things aren't going to work out and yet I stand at 19 inches so far and we have alot of winter left.

That’s not fair to say - I never said zero snow with any event this season. I’ve always been discussing my thoughts within the context of the storms’ evolutions and where I thought the snowfall maxima would be, and both times I’ve been correct. I don’t do backyard forecasts specifically for this reason lol

Yeah, I think the issue is, nobody likes to think about having a bad winter or the weather patterns in a negative light and while you're not be negative rather realistic about what you predict will happen, because it's not a positive predictions/outcome, you're then viewed as negative.  I'm sure that if you felt that a system were going to work out and talked to that forecast, things would be very different.  I for one look forward to that happening because you are one smart dude and that can be seen with how you express your thoughts about impending systems.

This right here. People are angry as if he controls the weather while all he is stating is an opinion of his.

It has nothing to do with people being angry, lol. Whats there to be angry about? People disagree.

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

What about the 12-13th period? Both Euro and cmc showing possibility of a wintry event. All you ever talk about is how things aren't going to work out and yet I stand at 19 inches so far and we have alot of winter left.

The models are going to flip around until it's understood better which vortexes to focus on. What I see so far today on 12Z is the H5 is a bit of a mess. Western ridging getting squashed by kamikaze arctic short waves and then no interaction between southern stream and northern stream. Without the two streams working together in some way the best I see is a light to possibly moderate event before 1/15. It could very well be nothing if the H5 is like what I see today at 12Z. But of course next run the models will deal out a new hand...

sroc4 wrote:
Despite the big picture looking decent the more individual vort maxes invloved the more precise everything has to come together.  Coordinating 2 or 3 pieces of energy in a good pattern vs coordinating 5-6 pieces is exponentially more challenging. If just one is in a bad spot it induces the chain reaction to reshuffling the rest.  And as we all know small changes at 500 have big implications on the surface.  We shall see.  

Regarding the 12th -13th potential. Todays 12z GFS gives you an idea of how complex it is.  CONUS view:





#1 is our southern system.  #2 ideally needs to dig into the back of it.  However; #3 is diving into the NE from the north compliments of the -NAO block we have as 1 & 2 appraoch.  The result is the inability for our system, #1, to raise heights out ahead of it on its own and suppression since #2 really isnt interacting until its too late.  

Now look at our PNA region aka west coast.  #4 is crashing the coast at just the wrong time.  Result is flattening the northern component of our +PNA ridge.  Result is the polar branch is flatter preventing #2 from digging into the back side of #1.  If this happened it would combine energy, aka phase, which means stronger storm.  Stronger storm = better chance to raise heights out ahead.  Raised heights out ahead = storm comes north up the coast.  

As if 5 pieces of energy wasnt enough to coordinate.  Lets zoom out a bit.  North America View:



You can see the -NAO ridge is causing a major bottle neck of the energy (#6) in the N Atlantic.  This is a good thing in general but Ive said it before sometimes too much of as good thing is a bad thing.  In this case can lead to supressed strom tracks.  ESP hen the Pac isnt cooperating which is the case in this image.  

Look west.  Wave after wave of energy is traversing the N Pac and crashing the west coast (8 to 7 to 4).  The result is a PNA ridge that tries to amplify but consistently gets knowcked down.  Timing has to be perfect with 1 and 2 as they approach the EC when you have such strong blocking in the NAO region otherwise the result is a flatened flow across the northern teir of the CONUS preventing N energy (ie: #2) from digging.  

Now here is the thing.  We often times get storms to come up when the NAO is relaxing.  The reason is as it relaxes it allows our system to come up because it doesnt push so hard.  We fortunately have the NAO forecast on both Euro and GFS ensembles to go from a -3 deviation to a -1 deviation.  Will this be enough of a relaxation to our NE to allow our system to come north "enough" is yet to be determined.  

Dont let the specific verbage from Ray confuse you.  He is 100% correct in his idea that the chance isnt great given everything I'm showing above and just how many pieces of energy have to coordinate, BUT there is a chance.  And its a decent chance IMHO.  I believe models will correct as we get towards saturday or so showing a little more digging of #2 and perhaps a little more interaction between #1 and #2.  I also think we see energy like #3 change in the modeling to be out of the way a little more.  Again is it enough to make it work...odd favor against it at this time IMHO.

Can't write the 12th off yet IMO.  There is a trough with energy and when that happens in a -NAO things can happen that are unforeseen by models at this range. The heights are not squashed in this depiction.

Probably not going to amount to much and I agree with Frank's SCI on this ATTM.

Here's the thing though that has been constant since January 1. We don't have a good air mass. That's important not just for snow creation, but snow enhancement with baroclinic zone setups. You can get really nice snows with WAA without having an amped up storm. I think something like this going into a good antecedent air mass could give us a moderate event. But we have to rely on a dynamic storm to produce dynamic cooling and that isn't really showing up.

This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off. Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.

12Z CMC

heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take. Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.

WE TRACK!!!!

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

What about the 12-13th period? Both Euro and cmc showing possibility of a wintry event. All you ever talk about is how things aren't going to work out and yet I stand at 19 inches so far and we have alot of winter left.

That’s not fair to say - I never said zero snow with any event this season. I’ve always been discussing my thoughts within the context of the storms’ evolutions and where I thought the snowfall maxima would be, and both times I’ve been correct. I don’t do backyard forecasts specifically for this reason lol

You kept harping on the dec 16-17th storm not being a big snow maker for NYC metro and points south and east I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong. Central Park recvd 10.5 from that storm and Bronx/yonkers a foot, and parts of Long island reported 7-8 inches. How were you correct? Point is many members of this board from NYC N and W are average to above average in snowfall season to date and the next 2-3 weeks have plenty of potential.

You’re right. And aside from NYC proper and extreme northeastern Monmouth County, NJ, most of eastern Pa, southern NY state, most of NJ and southern Connecticut busted significantly lower than what they were being forecast to receive in terms of snowfall. My argument was that based on the storm’s evolution, the totals of 12-18”+ would be confined to near the I-81 corridor, and I listed the cities that I felt would be in the maximum snowfall zone: State College, Williamsport, Binghamton, and Albany (or just south). For our area, i was arguing that relative to what the other areas would get, our totals would be much lighter than forecast because of the evolution allowing a warm nose to surge much further north than most forecasters and models were suggesting, as well as a dry slot that would interrupt the precipitation quite substantially for our area. All of those ideas verified very well. Did I make a map? No, I didn’t, which is why when we were discussing verifications, I repeatedly said that it’s easy to verify broader ideas like that than predicted snowfall totals, and made mention that I wish that I could have made a map to see how well my ideas would lined up with the sensible impacts. So yes, NYC Proper and northeastern Monmouth County were near the bottom ends of the consensus snowfalls, but aside from those anomalies, and within the context of forecasts for 12-18+ along and north/west of I-95, a general 6-8” through a large majority of our forecast area, which I also briefly mentioned as a guess, was fairly minimal and pretty close to verification overall.

Irish wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

What about the 12-13th period? Both Euro and cmc showing possibility of a wintry event. All you ever talk about is how things aren't going to work out and yet I stand at 19 inches so far and we have alot of winter left.

That’s not fair to say - I never said zero snow with any event this season. I’ve always been discussing my thoughts within the context of the storms’ evolutions and where I thought the snowfall maxima would be, and both times I’ve been correct. I don’t do backyard forecasts specifically for this reason lol

Yeah, I think the issue is, nobody likes to think about having a bad winter or the weather patterns in a negative light and while you're not be negative rather realistic about what you predict will happen, because it's not a positive predictions/outcome, you're then viewed as negative.  I'm sure that if you felt that a system were going to work out and talked to that forecast, things would be very different.  I for one look forward to that happening because you are one smart dude and that can be seen with how you express your thoughts about impending systems.

Thank you for the compliment I don’t mind disagreement. I think it’s healthy for fostering discussion and forcing people (me) to really dig in and look for weaknesses in the arguments presented (on either side). Believe me when I say that I don’t like putting out “negative” opinions. As our more senior posters can attest, I’m as big of a snow hawk as anybody in the weather community haha by the same token, though, my posts are not only driven by my love of weather and the discussion of it, but also by my desire to better my skills as a forecaster. One of those skills, and arguably, the hardest, is trying to remain completely objective in my assessments regardless of whether or not I like what find lol admittedly, I think it’s impossible to be completely objective, because you can never remove all personal biases. You get rid of your bias for snow/cold, but you settle into a routine of forecasting. But then that routine is biased because you think it’s a “one size fits all”, and then you get burned. So then you have to rethink your routine........it’s a continuous process haha but, I do try to remain as objective as possible when it comes to limiting the influence of my love for cold and snow haha but if I see something that I like, YOU KNOW IT lmao

I learned a long time ago that it’s ok to differ from consensus, and often times, I do. When I do dissent, I usually only make a few posts to get my ideas out there, and engage in any rebuttals, but try to also limit the amount of feathers I ruffle and prevent the beating of a dead horse. This situation is no different. I’m am individual with my own thoughts and opinions, and it’s ok to put them out in a public forum. The key is to be able take away any criticism as constructive, and to learn from any mistakes so I don’t make them again without taking things too personally (unless it is personal, and/or it’s myself that I get mad at haha). In other places, I’ve been penalized and openly mocked and shadow banned for dissenting from the consensus, and that’s all I’ll say. But here, it’s much friendlier and so much more respectful, so it makes it much more enjoyable and rewarding to engage in more “heated” debates, and easier to abide by the above, even if I do turn out to be wrong.

Koroptim wrote:Long time follower of the board.  Always appreciated the generally calm nature of the core posters vs the lunacy you see trying to follow winter weather on Twitter.   The accuracy is also usually really impressive and forecasts usually don’t  waffle with each model run.

It is a bit confusing how in the 3 days I’ve visited the forum, the general mood has done a 180 from excited optimism to a much bleaker view.   Has something substantial changed with the PV expectations?  

We’re glad to have you here!!! You should post more I’m not on Twitter, but from what I’ve seen, “sensationalism” seems to be a pretty appropriate description, and even for some other forums, among some quality information/discussion sprinkled in lol

Certainly some quality posts in here the last couple days from our heavy hitters. My previous thoughts remain regarding the overall evolution and threat opportunities, as I think we start seeing the trough center itself increasingly to our west beginning around the 20th-22nd in the time mean, but it will be interesting to see how Frank’s quoted tweet will stand up against the signals that I’m seeing, as well as Tom (Isotherm). I’m not too convinced it holds, but I’d certainly be happy to be wrong.....kind of haha

crippo84 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take.  Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.  

WE TRACK!!!!  

I am confused, this is 3 days out, wouldn't we have a good idea by now if somethere were go happen? I have not yet seen a surface run that gives us a big hit except maybe a post few pages back, is there something different about this particular possible event that makes it still interesting with no hit only 72 hrs out?

Have you read all the posts about all the different pieces of energy in the atmosphere and why with the pattern we're entering any solution may not be known until a couple days in advance?

Thank You Crippo. And Jon I’ll add that I didn’t write that this am. I highlighted a key piece of the write up for you. Come on Dude.

For the record I’m still not writing it off just yet.