Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

If Euro is correct too Christmas eve/morning could be dark for many, which even for me would be sad.

SoulSingMG wrote:The wind threat around Christmas Day looks legit. However, one of my fav METS out of CT mentioned when there’s snow cover, it keeps the temperature cooler ~ 100 ft above the surface, helping to inhibit stronger winds from mixing down.

Any of our more seasoned members on here care to comment on that? I hadn’t heard this before.

First off, I agree 100% with Jman - Frank, you are definitely in the “more seasoned” crowd lol

Anyway, and this will be in reply to Jman as well, conceptually this would have merit, in my opinion, as a cooler surface in relation to warming lower- and mid-levels would help to enhance an inversion (think of a sounding, temperature increasing with height which is a very stable situation and therefore inhibits mixing.....the atmosphere would already be in thermal balance because cold, more dense air would be beneath warmer, less dense air). HOWEVER, from the little bit I’ve actually seen this front looks to have a decent convective component to it. Even though it would likely be elevated convection further north (I.e. air would be forced to be lifted from the level of the inversion, as remember, anything beneath the inversion is thermally balanced already and would resist ascent), it would still probably be able to mix some of the winds down from a SCREAMING low-level jet as the squall line blew through thanks to the enhanced vertical motion associated with the convection itself. Then, once the front goes through and the inversion mixes out, you’d probably end up with pretty gusty northwesterlies like we normally see. Remember the crazy front from February 2017 that brought winter back, where it was in the 60s and 70s area wide and then the front came through with wind gusts of like 70-something? Very similar setup from what I’ve seen, though with a somewhat cooler preceding airmass.

As a follow up, anywhere where the snow is either previously absent (aka where I am lol) or where it’s able to melt off, this would help probably help to weaken the inversion and allow more wind to mix down (unless the warm advection aloft is so overpowering that it maintains the inversion).

rb924119 wrote:As a follow up, anywhere where the snow is either previously absent (aka where I am lol) or where it’s able to melt off, this would help probably help to weaken the inversion and allow more wind to mix down (unless the warm advection aloft is so overpowering that it maintains the inversion).

Interesting to both posts, question 2 lol. If this wind even was to happen would it just be like a thunderstorm line or would the winds be long lasting? Yes I think I recall that Feb storm very well, I believe a lot of big trees came down, was it sunny and cold with like 60+ gusts? Math for your date memeory lol

WOW look at this reversal of the stratospheric winds

This is a very significant NAO block as shown on the GEFS.  Other guidance is showing it too.  My takeaway is expect operational model runs to do some interesting things in the coming days.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:As a follow up, anywhere where the snow is either previously absent (aka where I am lol) or where it’s able to melt off, this would help probably help to weaken the inversion and allow more wind to mix down (unless the warm advection aloft is so overpowering that it maintains the inversion).

Interesting to both posts, question 2 lol. If this wind even was to happen would it just be like a thunderstorm line or would the winds be long lasting? Yes I think I recall that Feb storm very well, I believe a lot of big trees came down, was it sunny and cold with like 60+ gusts? Math for your date memeory lol

My early guess? Where there’s no snow on the ground or it’s able to melt, 6-12 hours sounds about right. Where there is snow on the ground, it would mainly just be with the squall line itself. Maybe somebody following more closely could add some further insight on that, though.

I *MIGHT* have to really start honking for the 27th-30th period. Quick glances are showing me things that I like more and more. Details to come over the next day or two, but my previous posts regarding this period are a big hint

rb924119 wrote:I *MIGHT* have to really start honking for the 27th-30th period. Quick glances are showing me things that I like more and more. Details to come over the next day or two, but my previous posts regarding this period are a big hint

Finally a snow lover post : ) LOL Glad to hear possibly positive news.

There’s a ton of opportunity ahead. Which wave are models going to try and focus in on? The one on the 28th has my attention. I would like to see more northern and southern stream interaction, but a fluid Pacific may inhibit such a thing and we’re left with just one jet similar to previous storm.

A lot is melting here, which is okay with me for easy of transportation, I am lookforward to a fresh snow near end of the year : )

Frank_Wx wrote:There’s a ton of opportunity ahead. Which wave are models going to try and focus in on? The one on the 28th has my attention. I would like to see more northern and southern stream interaction, but a fluid Pacific may inhibit such a thing and we’re left with just one jet similar to previous storm.

Vehemently AGREE with the 28th, Frank. But, where we differ is in our interpretation of the Pacific influence. In this case, I think it may actually work to our benefit.

Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am-6am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind? Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas. Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind?  Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas.  Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.  

I understand, I dunno honestly, its invisible power, it's not that I WISH for it, no such thing as wishing, if it happens it excites me. Even Frank said "Isiaias was pretty fun" and he did a lot of damage. I wish it did not come with all those issues.  So am not wishing harm on anyone.  It is just a obsession I have always had, I love watching it whip around and t-storms are another thing I love, though I can do without tornadoes for sure.  I hope that explains my thoughts a bit, if it doesn't your as clueless as to why i am as I am lol. I could ask everyone here why they want 44 inches of snow, can cause massive issues and damage,  a roof collapsed from the storm in New rochelle NY.  So everything can cause damage and loss of life, what about snowstorms so bad the ambulances cannot get to emergency calls.  I think we can handle some downed power lines and a few trees, winds get scary to me when they reach about 60-70mph though. Another note, I also do not live in a house, I live in a brick building so I would probably be more worried if I owned a home and could cost me money, any damage here and it is on them.

jmanley32 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind?  Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas.  Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.  

I understand, I dunno honestly, its invisible power, it's not that I WISH for it, no such thing as wishing, if it happens it excites me. Even Frank said "Isiaias was pretty fun" and he did a lot of damage. I wish it did not come with all those issues.  So am not wishing harm on anyone.  It is just a obsession I have always had, I love watching it whip around and t-storms are another thing I love, though I can do without tornadoes for sure.  I hope that explains my thoughts a bit, if it doesn't your as clueless as to why i am as I am lol. I could ask everyone here why they want 44 inches of snow, can cause massive issues and damage,  a roof collapsed from the storm in New rochelle NY.  So everything can cause damage and loss of life, what about snowstorms so bad the ambulances cannot get to emergency calls.  I think we can handle some downed power lines and a few trees, winds get scary to me when they reach about 60-70mph though.

All good, never thought you were wishing harm on anything or anyone.....was just curious for some insight. Yes, a lot of snow can cause all kinds of damage as well. Wind, possible no power and cold...I dont like, frozen pipes, no heat...no good!

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind?  Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas.  Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.  

I understand, I dunno honestly, its invisible power, it's not that I WISH for it, no such thing as wishing, if it happens it excites me. Even Frank said "Isiaias was pretty fun" and he did a lot of damage. I wish it did not come with all those issues.  So am not wishing harm on anyone.  It is just a obsession I have always had, I love watching it whip around and t-storms are another thing I love, though I can do without tornadoes for sure.  I hope that explains my thoughts a bit, if it doesn't your as clueless as to why i am as I am lol. I could ask everyone here why they want 44 inches of snow, can cause massive issues and damage,  a roof collapsed from the storm in New rochelle NY.  So everything can cause damage and loss of life, what about snowstorms so bad the ambulances cannot get to emergency calls.  I think we can handle some downed power lines and a few trees, winds get scary to me when they reach about 60-70mph though.

All good, never thought you were wishing harm on anything or anyone.....was just curious for some insight.  Yes, a lot of snow can cause all kinds of damage as well.  Wind, possible no power and cold...I dont like, frozen pipes, no heat...no good!

I never understood Jmans obsession with wind either, but I've never understood my own obsession for accumulating snow anytime of the year, even in May and the first week of October which I've experienced several times in my life.

If you're on this board, you have weather issues, let's all be honest with ourselves.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind?  Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas.  Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.  

I understand, I dunno honestly, its invisible power, it's not that I WISH for it, no such thing as wishing, if it happens it excites me. Even Frank said "Isiaias was pretty fun" and he did a lot of damage. I wish it did not come with all those issues.  So am not wishing harm on anyone.  It is just a obsession I have always had, I love watching it whip around and t-storms are another thing I love, though I can do without tornadoes for sure.  I hope that explains my thoughts a bit, if it doesn't your as clueless as to why i am as I am lol. I could ask everyone here why they want 44 inches of snow, can cause massive issues and damage,  a roof collapsed from the storm in New rochelle NY.  So everything can cause damage and loss of life, what about snowstorms so bad the ambulances cannot get to emergency calls.  I think we can handle some downed power lines and a few trees, winds get scary to me when they reach about 60-70mph though.

All good, never thought you were wishing harm on anything or anyone.....was just curious for some insight.  Yes, a lot of snow can cause all kinds of damage as well.  Wind, possible no power and cold...I dont like, frozen pipes, no heat...no good!

I never understood Jmans obsession with wind either, but I've never understood my own obsession for accumulating snow anytime of the year, even in May and the first week of October which I've experienced several times in my life.

If you're on this board, you have weather issues, let's all be honest with ourselves.

Some of the wisest words spoken on this site. Ill take snow in any of the 12 months. Heck, I'll even make up a thirteenth month if it means more snow. It shall be called Snowburary. A glorious month indeed!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind?  Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas.  Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.  

I understand, I dunno honestly, its invisible power, it's not that I WISH for it, no such thing as wishing, if it happens it excites me. Even Frank said "Isiaias was pretty fun" and he did a lot of damage. I wish it did not come with all those issues.  So am not wishing harm on anyone.  It is just a obsession I have always had, I love watching it whip around and t-storms are another thing I love, though I can do without tornadoes for sure.  I hope that explains my thoughts a bit, if it doesn't your as clueless as to why i am as I am lol. I could ask everyone here why they want 44 inches of snow, can cause massive issues and damage,  a roof collapsed from the storm in New rochelle NY.  So everything can cause damage and loss of life, what about snowstorms so bad the ambulances cannot get to emergency calls.  I think we can handle some downed power lines and a few trees, winds get scary to me when they reach about 60-70mph though.

All good, never thought you were wishing harm on anything or anyone.....was just curious for some insight.  Yes, a lot of snow can cause all kinds of damage as well.  Wind, possible no power and cold...I dont like, frozen pipes, no heat...no good!

I never understood Jmans obsession with wind either, but I've never understood my own obsession for accumulating snow anytime of the year, even in May and the first week of October which I've experienced several times in my life.

If you're on this board, you have weather issues, let's all be honest with ourselves.

My wife makes fun of me all the time because I'm like a child when it comes to snow.

Guys take this convo to Banter please.
Going to get other weenies hopes up seeing all these messages!!

Grselig wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind?  Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas.  Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.  

I understand, I dunno honestly, its invisible power, it's not that I WISH for it, no such thing as wishing, if it happens it excites me. Even Frank said "Isiaias was pretty fun" and he did a lot of damage. I wish it did not come with all those issues.  So am not wishing harm on anyone.  It is just a obsession I have always had, I love watching it whip around and t-storms are another thing I love, though I can do without tornadoes for sure.  I hope that explains my thoughts a bit, if it doesn't your as clueless as to why i am as I am lol. I could ask everyone here why they want 44 inches of snow, can cause massive issues and damage,  a roof collapsed from the storm in New rochelle NY.  So everything can cause damage and loss of life, what about snowstorms so bad the ambulances cannot get to emergency calls.  I think we can handle some downed power lines and a few trees, winds get scary to me when they reach about 60-70mph though.

All good, never thought you were wishing harm on anything or anyone.....was just curious for some insight.  Yes, a lot of snow can cause all kinds of damage as well.  Wind, possible no power and cold...I dont like, frozen pipes, no heat...no good!

I never understood Jmans obsession with wind either, but I've never understood my own obsession for accumulating snow anytime of the year, even in May and the first week of October which I've experienced several times in my life.

If you're on this board, you have weather issues, let's all be honest with ourselves.

Some of the wisest words spoken on this site. Ill take snow in any of the 12 months.  Heck, I'll even make up a thirteenth month if it means more snow.  It shall be called Snowburary.  A glorious month indeed!

LMAO thanks for that CP, yep we all got wx issues for sure. And I did not join this forum for wind, though I do talk of it when it is talked about I joined for snowstorms.

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:The wind threat around Christmas Day looks legit. However, one of my fav METS out of CT mentioned when there’s snow cover, it keeps the temperature cooler ~ 100 ft above the surface, helping to inhibit stronger winds from mixing down.

Any of our more seasoned members on here care to comment on that? I hadn’t heard this before.

First off, I agree 100% with Jman - Frank, you are definitely in the “more seasoned” crowd lol

Anyway, and this will be in reply to Jman as well, conceptually this would have merit, in my opinion, as a cooler surface in relation to warming lower- and mid-levels would help to enhance an inversion (think of a sounding, temperature increasing with height which is a very stable situation and therefore inhibits mixing.....the atmosphere would already be in thermal balance because cold, more dense air would be beneath warmer, less dense air). HOWEVER, from the little bit I’ve actually seen this front looks to have a decent convective component to it. Even though it would likely be elevated convection further north (I.e. air would be forced to be lifted from the level of the inversion, as remember, anything beneath the inversion is thermally balanced already and would resist ascent), it would still probably be able to mix some of the winds down from a SCREAMING low-level jet as the squall line blew through thanks to the enhanced vertical motion associated with the convection itself. Then, once the front goes through and the inversion mixes out, you’d probably end up with pretty gusty northwesterlies like we normally see. Remember the crazy front from February 2017 that brought winter back, where it was in the 60s and 70s area wide and then the front came through with wind gusts of like 70-something? Very similar setup from what I’ve seen, though with a somewhat cooler preceding airmass.

Thanks for this, Rb. This is definitely quite an anomalous frontal setup for this time of year, and Upton’s already sounding the alarm for wind advisory/warning gusts Thursday eve into Christmas morning.

jmanley32 wrote:

Grselig wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind?  Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas.  Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.  

I understand, I dunno honestly, its invisible power, it's not that I WISH for it, no such thing as wishing, if it happens it excites me. Even Frank said "Isiaias was pretty fun" and he did a lot of damage. I wish it did not come with all those issues.  So am not wishing harm on anyone.  It is just a obsession I have always had, I love watching it whip around and t-storms are another thing I love, though I can do without tornadoes for sure.  I hope that explains my thoughts a bit, if it doesn't your as clueless as to why i am as I am lol. I could ask everyone here why they want 44 inches of snow, can cause massive issues and damage,  a roof collapsed from the storm in New rochelle NY.  So everything can cause damage and loss of life, what about snowstorms so bad the ambulances cannot get to emergency calls.  I think we can handle some downed power lines and a few trees, winds get scary to me when they reach about 60-70mph though.

All good, never thought you were wishing harm on anything or anyone.....was just curious for some insight.  Yes, a lot of snow can cause all kinds of damage as well.  Wind, possible no power and cold...I dont like, frozen pipes, no heat...no good!

I never understood Jmans obsession with wind either, but I've never understood my own obsession for accumulating snow anytime of the year, even in May and the first week of October which I've experienced several times in my life.

If you're on this board, you have weather issues, let's all be honest with ourselves.

Some of the wisest words spoken on this site. Ill take snow in any of the 12 months.  Heck, I'll even make up a thirteenth month if it means more snow.  It shall be called Snowburary.  A glorious month indeed!

LMAO thanks for that CP, yep we all got wx issues for sure. And I did not join this forum for wind, though I do talk of it when it is talked about I joined for snowstorms.

This may be the first time I wholeheartedly agree with you but I'm the same way - even if I know the following week will be miserable hell without power I still root for it because I want to see the show. Weather will do what it does, but its the only completely uncontrollable force on the planet and that's what makes it fascinating.

Zhukov1945 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Grselig wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is showing a monster windstorm with the front, starting to ramp up at 10am and dying out at 3am christmas morning....the height around 7pm-3am with verbatim 66-72mph gusts, jeeze (yes for the record I know the Euro over does it but who knows).  GFS is lower, CMC I havent looked at. Interested to see SR.

I have posted and see your posts all the time, serious question here...What is your obsession with wind?  Can be crazy destructive, power lines down, trees falling, issues with leaks in houses, siding issues, and in the winter wind and power outages probably worst case scenario, especially if it is supposed to get bone chilling cold after Christmas.  Maybe its me but I would not be hoping for wind, its just crazy.  

I understand, I dunno honestly, its invisible power, it's not that I WISH for it, no such thing as wishing, if it happens it excites me. Even Frank said "Isiaias was pretty fun" and he did a lot of damage. I wish it did not come with all those issues.  So am not wishing harm on anyone.  It is just a obsession I have always had, I love watching it whip around and t-storms are another thing I love, though I can do without tornadoes for sure.  I hope that explains my thoughts a bit, if it doesn't your as clueless as to why i am as I am lol. I could ask everyone here why they want 44 inches of snow, can cause massive issues and damage,  a roof collapsed from the storm in New rochelle NY.  So everything can cause damage and loss of life, what about snowstorms so bad the ambulances cannot get to emergency calls.  I think we can handle some downed power lines and a few trees, winds get scary to me when they reach about 60-70mph though.

All good, never thought you were wishing harm on anything or anyone.....was just curious for some insight.  Yes, a lot of snow can cause all kinds of damage as well.  Wind, possible no power and cold...I dont like, frozen pipes, no heat...no good!

I never understood Jmans obsession with wind either, but I've never understood my own obsession for accumulating snow anytime of the year, even in May and the first week of October which I've experienced several times in my life.

If you're on this board, you have weather issues, let's all be honest with ourselves.

Some of the wisest words spoken on this site. Ill take snow in any of the 12 months.  Heck, I'll even make up a thirteenth month if it means more snow.  It shall be called Snowburary.  A glorious month indeed!

LMAO thanks for that CP, yep we all got wx issues for sure. And I did not join this forum for wind, though I do talk of it when it is talked about I joined for snowstorms.

This may be the first time I wholeheartedly agree with you but I'm the same way - even if I know the following week will be miserable hell without power I still root for it because I want to see the show.  Weather will do what it does, but its the only completely uncontrollable force on the planet and that's what makes it fascinating.

Glad we finally can agree on something lol, honestly I could do without the outages, Isiais was miserable we actually went the Casino in CT for a few days since COVID was laxing (let me tell you, the casino experience will never be the same, it is NOTHING like it was before) and returned once our friend told us the power was back. I know a few people there and we can usually stay free in a suite up to 3 nights : ) I actually am friends with a tribal member. But ya looking at souls post looks like NWS is taking it pretty seriously, but without leaves we can prolly handle 50-60mph winds with only sporadic to scattered outages, summertime totally different story. We will see and damn thats a lot of rain, what a miserable xmas even/morning.

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:The wind threat around Christmas Day looks legit. However, one of my fav METS out of CT mentioned when there’s snow cover, it keeps the temperature cooler ~ 100 ft above the surface, helping to inhibit stronger winds from mixing down.

Any of our more seasoned members on here care to comment on that? I hadn’t heard this before.

First off, I agree 100% with Jman - Frank, you are definitely in the “more seasoned” crowd lol

Anyway, and this will be in reply to Jman as well, conceptually this would have merit, in my opinion, as a cooler surface in relation to warming lower- and mid-levels would help to enhance an inversion (think of a sounding, temperature increasing with height which is a very stable situation and therefore inhibits mixing.....the atmosphere would already be in thermal balance because cold, more dense air would be beneath warmer, less dense air). HOWEVER, from the little bit I’ve actually seen this front looks to have a decent convective component to it. Even though it would likely be elevated convection further north (I.e. air would be forced to be lifted from the level of the inversion, as remember, anything beneath the inversion is thermally balanced already and would resist ascent), it would still probably be able to mix some of the winds down from a SCREAMING low-level jet as the squall line blew through thanks to the enhanced vertical motion associated with the convection itself. Then, once the front goes through and the inversion mixes out, you’d probably end up with pretty gusty northwesterlies like we normally see. Remember the crazy front from February 2017 that brought winter back, where it was in the 60s and 70s area wide and then the front came through with wind gusts of like 70-something? Very similar setup from what I’ve seen, though with a somewhat cooler preceding airmass.

Thanks for this, Rb. This is definitely quite an anomalous frontal setup for this time of year, and Upton’s already sounding the alarm for wind advisory/warning gusts Thursday eve into Christmas morning.

didnt realize they were already putting out briefings, this early they def know something is up.

00z GEM/CANADIAN. Sweet dreams, all

rb924119 wrote:00z GEM/CANADIAN. Sweet dreams, all

What are we seeing?