February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

Wow. Snowing like crazy in the Extreme NW corner of Ocean county. Already since yesterday 7-8 inches on the ground. The wind is picking up. Long day ahead.

The 06Z 3K NAM right now seems to be close to reality. If that is true then things are going to crank up in a few hours especially for LI.

Winds seem to be picking up in westchester

algae888 wrote:Close to 5" so far in the Bronx mod snow now

wow really? Doesnt look like even half that here, I also noted NWS sig dropped the forrecast from 16-22 to 14-20, i mean i guess thats only 4 inches but 4 is 4. did we see a change in the storm thats going to not allow as much snow?

Radar over the ocean south of LI is really starting to fill in and blow up....best guesstimate about 5.5" on the ground now

aiannone wrote:SPC

morning! I hope so as so far we have some catching up to do here, im only eyeballing and ill go out in a while but looks like maybe 3 inches?

The high res NAM at close range is usually very good. It's the post 24 hours stuff that it's bad at many times.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Close to 5" so far in the Bronx mod snow now

wow really? Doesnt look like even half that here, I also noted NWS sig dropped the forrecast from 16-22 to 14-20, i mean i guess thats only 4 inches but 4 is 4. did we see a change in the storm thats going to not allow as much snow?

Jman that is what’s left to fall and doesn’t include what already fell

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Close to 5" so far in the Bronx mod snow now

wow really? Doesnt look like even half that here, I also noted NWS sig dropped the forrecast from 16-22 to 14-20, i mean i guess thats only 4 inches but 4 is 4. did we see a change in the storm thats going to not allow as much snow?

Already Jman??   its only 7:20 the storm didnt even start cranking yet.   Let this thing develop and get going...its snowing at a good clip on long island right now

Honestly though, with the forcasted winds how am i even supposed to measure this once things ramp up? I guess ill have to go by reports closest to me.

The radar is blowing up

I’m currently seeing huge flakes and heavy snow in Morris Plains

Frank- everything relatively on track thus far? Any major changes?

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Close to 5" so far in the Bronx mod snow now

wow really? Doesnt look like even half that here, I also noted NWS sig dropped the forrecast from 16-22 to 14-20, i mean i guess thats only 4 inches but 4 is 4. did we see a change in the storm thats going to not allow as much snow?

Already Jman??   its only 7:20 the storm didnt even start cranking yet.   Let this thing develop and get going...its snowing at a good clip on long island right now

a

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Knyca_h.gif

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

I referenced this before heading to bed last night but want to reiterate it as there have been a couple questions: The snow yesterday and last night was the overrunning snow AHEAD of the former primary Low in Ohio. We got an (from my perspective) unexpectedly good thump of snow from that last night especially further west and south (PA and NJ).
BUT the reason Frank and others here have said the heaviest snow would be Monday into Monday night is because it is the COASTAL Low expected to provide that and the Coastal is still pulling itself together offshore.
Once the coastal Low is fully developed it will rotate heavy bands of precipitation onshore and a CCB (cold conveyer belt) will set up as the highway for those bands.
This will do two things: bring the heaviest precipitation into the area (mostly snow) and bring more cold air in behind the Low. This will happen later this morning through tonight.
What I mentioned last night is that often as the primary Low transfers to the coastal, you will see a lull in the storm where precipitation gets lighter and ragged. You also may see temps rise a bit ahead of the dying primary Low which combined with lighter precip (which doesn’t self-cool the column like heavy precip) causes more mixing in areas that will go back to snow once the intensity picks up on the backside of the Low.
Late overnight and early this AM you are seeing this lull and transfer. So if you’re getting light precip and unexpected mixing don’t panic. It’s still early in this game. Once it’s complete most of us will get colder and snowier. And we’ll also find out where the real CCB and jackpot set up - as opposed to what the models say which is just a projection.
You’ll know the coastal Liw is mature and in charge when you see precip banding start to rotate and instead of moving south to north, begin moving more southeast to northwest and maybe even a training NE to SW. the radar will look less like a blob moving to the east and more like a pinwheel spinning off the coast. Keep an eye on the radar this morning. And Good luck to everyone today.

Light snow

26.2/25.5. About 6" OTG

The radar south of LI definitely looks juicy!!

18 degrees here, looks like close to 3 inches, light snow,a little blowing snow.Very happy for this to be a daytime snowstorm so we can see what's going on.
Reminds me of the February1983 snowstorm, a steady light snow for hours then all hell broke loose.3 inch per hour rate for 6 hours straight.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Close to 5" so far in the Bronx mod snow now

wow really? Doesnt look like even half that here, I also noted NWS sig dropped the forrecast from 16-22 to 14-20, i mean i guess thats only 4 inches but 4 is 4. did we see a change in the storm thats going to not allow as much snow?

Jman that is what’s left to fall and doesn’t include what already fell

well durrr to me lol, im just waking up prolly should waited for coffee lol, its ripping right now, and its pretty windy i think as i mentioned its go be hard to tell exactly whats OTG. I thought the WSW was for the whole event not additional snow.

The secondary low that is developing, aka Roidzilla, is shaped like an “L”

How freaking cool!!!!!!!!

I am in Eatontown, we were raining but snowing now, radar looks like I am literally at the snow/rain/mix line, will we stay snow or change to rain?

23*, 4” OTG as of 7:30, beautiful outside- feels like a real old fashioned February day!

21 degrees, feels like 21....Wind N 3 mph gusts to 7.

Light coating, coming down like snizzle (snow & drizzle).