Long Range Discussions 21.0
+33
jimv45
oldtimer
hyde345
sabamfa
SENJsnowman
essexcountypete
SNOW MAN
algae888
docstox12
mmanisca
skinsfan1177
rb924119
mwilli
weatherwatchermom
CPcantmeasuresnow
dkodgis
TheAresian
Snow88
Zhukov1945
Mike1984
dsix85
sroc4
lglickman1
WeatherBob
heehaw453
Irish
phil155
billg315
jmanley32
aiannone
frank 638
amugs
Frank_Wx
37 posters
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Joe Snow likes this post
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
I'm gonna have to get another bag of ice melt if there are more storms coming
mwilli- Posts : 132
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Joe Snow likes this post
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
I have a thread for those storms!
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
I haven’t looked at anything in detail, and as I previously said, very most likely won’t be able to, but taking this verbatim, if you’re looking for another NESIS major event for somebody at least nearby, wait until the tail of that tropospheric PV dumbbells around and turns the corner........because brothers and sisters, THAT AINT NO JOKE. I may not be the wisest nor the oldest, but my limited experience tells me that evolution IS NOT an “if”, BUT A “when” if the above map is legitimate.
I should threaten to cancel Winter more often, I guess lmfao also, if you couldn’t tell, THIS IS ME GETTING EXCITED lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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essexcountypete, SENJsnowman and Irish like this post
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
OH BOY RAY - dont jinx us or be a mush please LOL!!
Your input is extremely valuable here and welcomed so yuo may have to make sometime to post here brother. IF i have to after I pay Alex a visit on the Island I'll pay you a visit on the real and best regions island LOL!
Your input is extremely valuable here and welcomed so yuo may have to make sometime to post here brother. IF i have to after I pay Alex a visit on the Island I'll pay you a visit on the real and best regions island LOL!
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
amugs wrote:OH BOY RAY - dont jinx us or be a mush please LOL!!
Your input is extremely valuable here and welcomed so yuo may have to make sometime to post here brother. IF i have to after I pay Alex a visit on the Island I'll pay you a visit on the real and best regions island LOL!
HAHA come to the real snow towns
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.
To far out need to see what happens during the week
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
I am aware was just curious.skinsfan1177 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.
To far out need to see what happens during the week
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
jmanley32 wrote:I am aware was just curious.skinsfan1177 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.
To far out need to see what happens during the week
Today's trends jman for late week and weekend have been drier and south
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Dr. Cohen very interesting. Shows the stratospheric warming events and the resulting weather events. How long will it as? Looks like until early to mid March.
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
This is where my attention is since tomorrow is a non event.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
yeah saw that, still go see windshield wipers, its 6 days out to vday. The 11th if its south we may not get it as its 2 days out but who knows.skinsfan1177 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I am aware was just curious.skinsfan1177 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 14th!! This includes the snow from tomorrow, but we do not really see but a inch in some spots on the 11th so the 14th has G word potential on GFS verbatim, what do you guys think? It rides super close to the coast bringing in some rain and mixing we need it a bit more S & E but not a lot.
To far out need to see what happens during the week
Today's trends jman for late week and weekend have been drier and south
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
This is a remarkably COLD HP my goodness
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
GEFS losing cutters for VDAY storm - nice cluster by BM=bench mark
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
The 12z GFS showed a colder storm for the coast on Sunday. Although it’s still rain verbatim, N&W got into some heavier snow amounts. It was a nice trend, and it happened because of what I had stated last night.
Check out the difference aloft between the 6z and 12z gfs. Look how there is greater separation between the southern s/w and the PV on the 12z gfs. This allows phasing to occur much more upstream as opposed in the Midwest which would result in a strong cutter.
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CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Don't want it to phase early or else it cuts. Gefs and Eps have more coastal than cutters atb12Z than at 0 and 6z runs. What Friday's system does will help set up Sunday and the domino affect then Tuesday and Thursdays etc.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
next tues and thurs? We are looking at storms then too? Keep em coming ones got to stick, our luck cannot have run out yet, we have what about 6 weeks max of snow chances and come march it gets hard with sun angle. I would still put this winter as great for me anyways.amugs wrote:Don't want it to phase early or else it cuts. Gefs and Eps have more coastal than cutters atb12Z than at 0 and 6z runs. What Friday's system does will help set up Sunday and the domino affect then Tuesday and Thursdays etc.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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essexcountypete likes this post
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Need the HP about 200 miles more east if not to keep us cold at all levels - if not we can have a slop storm or a sleet/freezing rain fest.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
I know i am going way past but ohh ninny 17th, g word for most....gotta watch that date in the coming week.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
V-day storm doesn’t look that exciting as it once use to. See how the PV is up near the Great Lakes, and we got heights trying to peak along the east coast. But the energy is very elongated. The short wave and low associated with this energy is weak. My guess is some rain and snow showers (rain south near the shore and snow N&W).
Next Tuesday might be a different story, however....
Next Tuesday might be a different story, however....
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
A sort of TPV fujiwara in southern Canada and then a hostile mid latitude wave train interaction into early next week. This is the westerly momentum added to Mid Latitudes manifesting as jet extension and then this wave activity that shoves TPV east. Complicated, huh? Lol pic.twitter.com/h07moZAbQV
— Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) February 10, 2021
Talk about active and confusing my goodness our models are going to be all over the place with the storms for sure with this.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
I'd love to see a TV weatherman come out and say that during his forecast just so that he could end it with an admonishment to people that weather setups are vastly more complicated than just flipping on TWC and taking it as gospel.
TheAresian- Senior Enthusiast
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CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Jesus 3 days in a row - Saturday Night on teh Euro Now - Amped
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Jesus 3 days in a row - Saturday Night on teh Euro Now - Amped
OH this would be bad - has anyone seen the ZR adn Sleet maps for Texas through the Mid Atlantic this weekend - it is an absolute disaster - better pray it doesn't happen or else mass swaths of population are in trouble
OH this would be bad - has anyone seen the ZR adn Sleet maps for Texas through the Mid Atlantic this weekend - it is an absolute disaster - better pray it doesn't happen or else mass swaths of population are in trouble
Last edited by amugs on Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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