Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **Joe Snow** Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Yikes

by **sroc4** Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:52 pm

Joe Snow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Yikes

Euro is right in line with GFS right now. Def going to need to start looking at this. Both have it strengthening on approach all the way until landfall

by **sroc4** Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Yikes

Euro is right in line with GFS right now. Def going to need to start looking at this. Both have it strengthening on approach all the way until landfall

Euro

by **jmanley32** Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:30 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Yikes

Euro is right in line with GFS right now. Def going to need to start looking at this. Both have it strengthening on approach all the way until landfall

Euro

No good to have GFS and Euro on board at 144 hrs. That would be terrible. GFS is lit with tropical systems across atlantic and GOM through day 16 holy crap!

by **amugs** Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:21 am

That's a CAT 3 with RI- rapid Intensification before landfall. Low shear, good outflow to vent and strengthen over bath rub waters. A recipe for bad. Same areas got hit by Laura and Delta last year.

by **dkodgis** Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:45 am

This will kiss the Hudson Valley area by …?

by **sroc4** Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:01 am

dkodgis wrote:This will kiss the Hudson Valley area by …?

Looks like if it affects the area at all it would be in the 5-7day time frame, but still multiple factors that could speed things up or slow them down.

by **amugs** Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:08 pm

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:This will kiss the Hudson Valley area by …?

Looks like if it affects the area at all it would be in the 5-7day time frame, but still multiple factors that could speed things up or slow them down.

It would just be remnant rain looks like. Nothing to get worried about.

by **amugs** Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:This will kiss the Hudson Valley area by …?

Looks like if it affects the area at all it would be in the 5-7day time frame, but still multiple factors that could speed things up or slow them down.
It would just be remnant rain looks like. Nothing to get worried about.

Famous last words. The rains maybe be copius like Henei due to a large trough over the NE. Thus will have a PRE - pre rain event and then Ida remnants wl be exaggerated due to this as well from the looks. May change but it looks to be very wet.

by **amugs** Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:42 pm

by **amugs** Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:07 pm

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:20 am

Huge differences between GFS and Euro in how Ida affects our area. This would be for Wed into Thursday. GFS brings a large swath of 2.5-4.5 inches of rain; whereas the Euro keeps Ida's remnants south of the area all together.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:25 am

sroc4 wrote:Huge differences between GFS and Euro in how Ida affects our area. This would be for Wed into Thursday. GFS brings a large swath of 2.5-4.5 inches of rain; whereas the Euro keeps Ida's remnants south of the area all together.

Well I guess we need to keep a close eye on it..we are supposed to be in our boat next week for a last horah before school starts..

None of us needs more rain

by **amugs** Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:26 pm

Battin down the hatches in The Bayou and Miss
2021 Tropical Season - Page 33 Image.png.f69eb51906a1979f29fb13aa9a4801c1

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:56 pm

Shes really ramping up: She was 1006mb last night when I went to bed.

2021 Tropical Season - Page 33 Recon_AF301-0409A-IDA

by **Joe Snow** Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:26 pm

Wow, almost 24 hours of a major Hurricane is going rip LA to shreds.

by **amugs** Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:02 pm

NOLA will be Katrina part 2?
Corps did it to CAT 3 so they will be tested mightily with IDA

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:20 pm

Wow, they look to get hit twice hope Biden is ready for his first and 2nd hurricane disaster in 1 week. remnant rain is nothing compared to a direct hit from hurricane. I understand flooding can be bad but generally up here it just shuts things down.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:45 pm

Ida is taking an eerily similar path that Katrina did, but she won’t be AS bad. However, how can anyone tell the difference? Ida has potential to be catastrophic to that area given their sea level position. It’s not going to be good at all for LA.

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Ida is taking an eerily similar path that Katrina did, but she won’t be AS bad. However, how can anyone tell the difference? Ida has potential to be catastrophic to that area given their sea level position. It’s not going to be good at all for LA.

I wouldnt be so sure Frank. Katrina weakened right as it was on final approach. At one point it was a Cat 5 in the GOM but I believe at landfall it was "only" a Cat 3 with sustained winds at 125mph winds. Ida still has time to possibly end up with higher sustained winds. God Let's hope not, but this is the latest 5pm update on Ida from the NHC Shocked

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are
expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban,
small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

by **dkodgis** Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:28 am

Ida is now a Cat 4. The girl’s gonna kick up some sand New Orleans-way

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:52 am

dkodgis wrote:Ida is now a Cat 4. The girl’s gonna kick up some sand New Orleans-way

just heard they could have a 15 ft surge!! and possibly 2 ft of rain...what a nightmare and hospitals filled with covid patients will be staying put..they have no where to take all of these patients. WHAT A NIGHTMARE

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:00 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Ida is taking an eerily similar path that Katrina did, but she won’t be AS bad. However, how can anyone tell the difference? Ida has potential to be catastrophic to that area given their sea level position. It’s not going to be good at all for LA.

I wouldnt be so sure Frank. Katrina weakened right as it was on final approach. At one point it was a Cat 5 in the GOM but I believe at landfall it was "only" a Cat 3 with sustained winds at 125mph winds. Ida still has time to possibly end up with higher sustained winds. God Let's hope not, but this is the latest 5pm update on Ida from the NHC

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are
expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban,
small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

What separates Katrina in my opinion is how she made landfall. Her path was like that of Sandy’s except she came from the south while Sandy from the east. A straight shot which literally brought the ocean hundreds of miles inland. Ida is going to have catastrophic surge as well. But I still marvel at how straight Katrina was

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:04 pm

NWS: "the area may be uninhabitable for weeks or months after this storm" I would be leaving..they are interviewing people who want to stay..

by **hyde345** Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:18 pm

GFS and ICON both continue to show 3-5 inches for the area mid week. 00z Euro also show a couple inches NYC metro. Could be problems. Im not sure why my avatar is so big.

by **sroc4** Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:24 pm

hyde345 wrote:

GFS and ICON both continue to show 3-5 inches for the area mid week. 00z Euro also show a couple inches NYC metro. Could be problems. Im not sure why my avatar is so big.

LOL I noticed that too.

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