HomeJanuary 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
+22
CPcantmeasuresnow
larryrock72
freezerburn
rb924119
snowday111
docstox12
MattyICE
phil155
Dunnzoo
SENJsnowman
emokid51783
dsix85
billg315
sroc4
jmanley32
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
algae888
aiannone
amugs
frank 638
heehaw453
26 posters
Page 1 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:06 am
Please move all January 3 storm conversation here.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3936
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Frank_Wx likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by frank 638 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:12 am
1010 wins has the city and Long Island for a coatingto an inch
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2881
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:17 am
Lots of moving parts that any can affect this storm greatly in + direction.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15149
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:44 am
12Z GFS running. This could be telling peeps.
A little slower at first and west.
A little slower at first and west.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15149
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by aiannone Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:48 am
Another bump north on the 12z GFS from 6z
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4828
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:49 am
As the great Tom 
Pett CPs man sand ..Won't Back Down..
GFS is doing this FTW!!
Pett CPs man sand ..Won't Back Down..GFS is doing this FTW!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15149
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:51 am
A bit slower allows backside energy to partially get into the trough and the WAR pressing a tad more. One more tick and we are good for NYC metro for plowable snowstorm
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15149
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:53 am
12Z GFS 500mb trough already swings negative at hr 21. The very best 700mb lift is in SE NJ Atlantic City to Cape May, but anywhere Pt Pleasant on south will get hit hard. There is room for this to come north a bit more, but I don't think much more due to the trajectory of the ULL. This could be quite the event for coastal NJ.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3936
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by frank 638 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:53 am
How much snow 
will nyc get
will nyc get
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2881
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:54 am
frank 638 wrote:How much snow
I think this will be painful to watch on radar for anyone north of I-78 with exception of eastern LI.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3936
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by algae888 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:58 am
Good morning everyone my whole household has been hit with covid for The last week or so. The good news is that we're all fully vaccinated and the symptoms have been mild. What's interesting about this storm Is that Virginia Maryland Delaware Southern New Jersey will reach climo snowfall in a LA Nina. That definitely wasn't expected with still 2 months of Winter to go
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 62
Location : mt. vernon, new york
mmanisca and heehaw453 like this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:00 am
Yep. GFS was painfully close to a phase. If that shortwave slows up a tad more this thing would go boom. Problem is the flow probably is a bit too progressive for that to happen. Regardless like the NWS said this is an evolving forecast and still bears close watching.amugs wrote:A bit slower allows backside energy to partially get into the trough and the WAR pressing a tad more. One more tick and we are good for NYC metro for plowable snowstorm
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1963
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by algae888 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:01 am
GFS with 20" of snow for Atlantic City and 17 for dc incredible
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 62
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:01 am
Al hope ur all on the mend and speedy healthy recovery.
Bump from other thread. Not to shabby.
Monday has a shot, albeit not much but it's still on the table. Need this piece of Energy over NE called confluence to relax more and the Northern energy over the Great Lake's to speed up a tad and catch the Main stream over VA Caoes region or Delmarva and we can have a moderate event for the NYC region and especially CNJ/Coastal NJ and LI.
Right now SNJ - say about Brick/Pt. PT Pleasantleasant looks to be in a good spot for Mondays storm and extended holiday vacay for the kids!!!
From 33 n Rain ShowMe - Great visual maps
[/quote]
Bump from other thread. Not to shabby.
Monday has a shot, albeit not much but it's still on the table. Need this piece of Energy over NE called confluence to relax more and the Northern energy over the Great Lake's to speed up a tad and catch the Main stream over VA Caoes region or Delmarva and we can have a moderate event for the NYC region and especially CNJ/Coastal NJ and LI.
Right now SNJ - say about Brick/Pt. PT Pleasantleasant looks to be in a good spot for Mondays storm and extended holiday vacay for the kids!!!
From 33 n Rain ShowMe - Great visual maps
[/quote]_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15149
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by aiannone Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:01 am
My one concern being on the edge is there is a big push of fresh cold dry air. That could really trim the northern gradient
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4828
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Dunnzoo likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:05 am
All I can say is yeah I wish it was my back yard, but they are due. Literally 3 years in a row they haven't gotten anywhere near their seasonal snowfall. DC right to the Jersey shore anomalously low totals.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3936
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:11 am
NWS meteorologists really have a tough job. I don't envy it, but respect the hell out them. This will obviously be updated in short order.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3936
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by aiannone Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:15 am
Updated map from Steve D
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4828
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:19 am
GEFS are NW of the OP.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1963
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by Snow88 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:28 am
Cmc is a tick north
Very nice for A.C southward
Very nice for A.C southward
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 36
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:41 am
GEFS mean snowfall and I normally don't like looking at Global ensembles at this range, but I think GFS op is out to lunch. I think this looks more realistic than the op numbers. I think 1' at Jersey coast makes sense southern Ocean to Cape May. I don't buy 20" for one minute with this setup. 2-4" like what Frank has in the scroll sounds possible. But if there is too much subsidence and dry air it will be nothing but virga 78 on north.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3936
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:58 am
Hey all so. This is a surprise doesn't look like I'll get much some models show maybe 1 to 3 but snj deserves this so many times they been shafted. Yeah it'll be painful to watch but at least there's a snowstorm! Gives hope for us north of NYC for future storms. But who knows with this still have 24 hrs. Track! This reminds me of the flip in last minute track of boxing day blizzard except further south.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20646
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
larryrock72 and SENJsnowman like this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:01 pm
Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20646
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by algae888 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:12 pm
It doesn't look good for us hopefully we can squeak out an inch with some nice Arctic air to follow would make it look very wintry for a few daysjmanley32 wrote:Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 62
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:19 pm
i figured as much, thats okay we will get ours just barely jan. Crazy that NYC may see 2-4 and literally a mile outside the bronx we may see a inch, talk about a shoarp cutoff lol, if i wasnt working i might have gone to the city or even down to jersey.algae888 wrote:It doesn't look good for us hopefully we can squeak out an inch with some nice Arctic air to follow would make it look very wintry for a few daysjmanley32 wrote:Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20646
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Page 1 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum