January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Sref 6+ for nyc area

21z SREF mean for ISP nearly doubled from prior run

Anybody seen BillG lately?

Here’s the atmosphere telegraphing your maximum snowfall belt (in red), IMO. Watch the loop and you’ll see the deeper vertical motion (indicated by the higher cloud tops) banding/training over this region. Based on this, I’d expect to see a continued northward shift in guidance over night, but I can’t really add much more than this

rb924119 wrote:Anybody seen BillG lately?

Here’s the atmosphere telegraphing your maximum snowfall belt (in red), IMO. Watch the loop and you’ll see the deeper vertical motion (indicated by the higher cloud tops) banding/training over this region. Based on this, I’d expect to see a continued northward shift in guidance over night, but I can’t really add much more than this

Looking at the infrared images, it does appear the current convection is most active across central NJ and LI. Will be interesting to see if that is a telegraph of what will happen.

0z NAM rolling. Let's see if it shifts north at all.

NAM has definitely shifted north with the snow. Still assessing just how far north it is coming.

Yes, Bill...looks MUCH better through daybreak on Monday than the 18z run...

The 18z NAM had no snow in NYC. LI or north of I-195 in NJ. The 0z now brings accumulating snow up to NYC, LI and just south of I-78 in NJ. Not a major shift for the NYC metro in terms of impact, but a significant northern jump from the last run.

Rb,
If you are on the island you should get some blizzard like conditions between 8am-12pm( not technically a blizzard). 50mph wind gusts, not to shabby.

I don't think its going to expand the precip shield past CNJ, but my backyard does well again, and it looks like LI will do well on this run. Still snowing at the Shore and Eastern LI at 7/8 pm!! Feeling better about this now...and hopefully the coastal low strengthens and comes north!

If the NAM ticks north again in its next run, that would get significant accumulation as far north as NYC and LI as well as parts of North Jersey. Question remains, was this the start of a trend, or just a final correction?

rb924119 wrote:Anybody seen BillG lately?

Here’s the atmosphere telegraphing your maximum snowfall belt (in red), IMO. Watch the loop and you’ll see the deeper vertical motion (indicated by the higher cloud tops) banding/training over this region. Based on this, I’d expect to see a continued northward shift in guidance over night, but I can’t really add much more than this

I agree RB. I was thinking the I-95 gets in on the significant snow too.

larryrock72 wrote:Rb,
If you are on the island you should get some blizzard like conditions between 8am-12pm( not technically a blizzard). 50mph wind gusts, not to shabby.

Larry, are you east or west of 9? I think I ask you this every year...lol. I'm basically a stone's throw from 9, on the east side, about 1.5 miles from the water...should be interesting.

And it seems the sr models want to play ball again:

00z HRRR:



My theory all along has been to have the heavy precip boundary make it up my backyard, and THEN watch the last second dynamics unfold for a potentially major push N and W of the low and the precip shield...That's pretty much back on the table now imo...

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Anybody seen BillG lately?

Here’s the atmosphere telegraphing your maximum snowfall belt (in red), IMO. Watch the loop and you’ll see the deeper vertical motion (indicated by the higher cloud tops) banding/training over this region. Based on this, I’d expect to see a continued northward shift in guidance over night, but I can’t really add much more than this

I agree RB.  I was thinking the I-95 gets in on the significant snow too.

Can we get that red slot to shift 50 miles north? The jump on 00z ham and the sref were encouraging for a potentially more north with snowfall. I'll laugh is this comes so far north NYC area sees 3 plus. I would love that.

verbatim the NAM is dropping 15" of snow in Cape May County. If the shoretown I go to gets 15" and i get a couple flurries that would be somewhat cruel. lol

I think the surface pressure will follow the baroclinic zone.  This to me means a NE trajectory and then more E. It could mean the difference of 50 miles, but could make the difference between 6" and 1" of snow for a lot of the I-95.

Well the temperatures have certainly dropped. Hit 59 this afternoon, already down to 35* here.

And just like that, nice trends from the Nam...

3k Nam from 00z:



3k Nam from 18z:



3k Nam from 12z:

NWS must not be buying in to any northward shift just yet. Still no Winter Weather Advisory for my area. Usually they'd issue one even if they were only expecting an inch or two here.

Yeah. I'm not expecting anything so if I get an inch or two that'd be a win. I'd just like to have some meso support, but don't. However, this is just too dynamic to rule anything out. Like TTN could get 2" or 7" kind of thing and it's in the realm of possibility. Just no confidence.

larryrock72 wrote:Rb,
If you are on the island you should get some blizzard like conditions between 8am-12pm( not technically a blizzard). 50mph wind gusts, not to shabby.

I am!! But I’ll be sleeping through it because I work until 3:30am lol that said, I’m worried about a dual-banded precipitation structure with this, which is already apparent on radar and satellite. Getting back to my earlier post, it would not surprise me to see the eastern band miss offshore entirely, and then the second band hit the area I highlighted in red. We know what happens in the middle lol so SENJ, pay very close attention to that dry slot in the middle. It may bust a lot of forecasts for us, while I-95 gets the goods lol

rb924119 wrote:

larryrock72 wrote:Rb,
If you are on the island you should get some blizzard like conditions between 8am-12pm( not technically a blizzard). 50mph wind gusts, not to shabby.

I am!! But I’ll be sleeping through it because I work until 3:30am lol that said, I’m worried about a dual-banded precipitation structure with this, which is already apparent on radar and satellite. Getting back to my earlier post, it would not surprise me to see the eastern band miss offshore entirely, and then the second band hit the area I highlighted in red. We know what happens in the middle lol so SENJ, pay very close attention to that dry slot in the middle. It may bust a lot of forecasts for us, while I-95 gets the goods lol

Don’t tease me with the optimistic look for LI haha.

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Anybody seen BillG lately?

Here’s the atmosphere telegraphing your maximum snowfall belt (in red), IMO. Watch the loop and you’ll see the deeper vertical motion (indicated by the higher cloud tops) banding/training over this region. Based on this, I’d expect to see a continued northward shift in guidance over night, but I can’t really add much more than this

I agree RB.  I was thinking the I-95 gets in on the significant snow too.

Can we get that red slot to shift 50 miles north? The jump on 00z ham and the sref were encouraging for a potentially more north with snowfall. I'll laugh is this comes so far north NYC area sees 3 plus. I would love that.

If I had that kind of power, Jman, we’d all be sick of tracking…….and shoveling lmaoooo

O skin in the game here, but very curious how the final outcome unfolds. Pretty extraordinary to see some of these towns down in our southern end go from 60 to a SEC storm in a matter of several hours.

I'm hoping for the best for everyone from NYC on south and east. Post pictures tomorrow those that cash in.

Gonna try to go to sleep. All of the 00z runs seem to bring 8'+ to my backyard, and more the further south you go. Still leaning towards better news for the middle sections of the forum and at least Eastern LI as the morning unfolds tomorrow, but we'll have to see.