January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

SENJsnowman wrote:

larryrock72 wrote:Rb,
If you are on the island you should get some blizzard like conditions between 8am-12pm( not technically a blizzard). 50mph wind gusts, not to shabby.

Larry, are you east or west of 9? I think I ask you this every year...lol. I'm basically a stone's throw from 9, on the east side, about 1.5 miles from the water...should be interesting.

And it seems the sr models want to play ball again:

00z HRRR:



My theory all along has been to have the heavy precip boundary make it up my backyard, and THEN watch the last second dynamics unfold for a potentially major push N and W of the low and the precip shield...That's pretty much back on the table now imo...

. East of 9. 1/2 mile from the bay.

The moisture transport tells the story of the heaviest snow with this.  The snow growth zone at h7 is best from AC through Delmarva.  So dry air will win out as the lift just isn't enough to overcome it.  It was a bit more promising on earlier runs.  I-95 will get something light is my guess including LI.  Earlier runs were more promising on the transport.  

Looks and feels like snow, but alas, not a flake. Looking like the NAM had this one lined up. If you look at the projected radar for the next couple hours vs present you can see even the light snow not nearly as far north as progged. This is mostly a South Jersey Special.

WOW

Trees already coming down on powerlines in Gatlinburg, TN. Sounds of cracking trees around. Heavy wet snow will be causing some problems. @weatherchannel @NWSMorristown @JimCantore #TNwx pic.twitter.com/k8AK5iBBvK

— Charles Peek (@CharlesPeekWX) January 3, 2022

SENJsnowman wrote:Yeah, Bill, looks like heartache in Berkeley Township. Ray correctly saw the dual band of precip and most of ocean county is in the middle. Very few flakes and nothing close to sticking. ‍

Snowman the column is saturated best right where you see the purple lines clustered in SE NJ say LBI area right to Millville NJ.   That is where the most intense snowfall will be with this, but I think you'll do ok.  The surface freezing line is pushing rapidly right to the beaches.  The mid-level air is extremely dry as you get to the I-95, so I'd be surprised to see more than an 1-2" there.

The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

WOW - reminds of the winter of 78-79 when Wildwood got a phenomenal winter with 2 blizzards and crippled he whole SNJ region as we had Nada

A rare moment to see the beaches snow covered while the interior #NJ has green grass still showing. #njwx #njsnow https://t.co/8kw9DdVeoT

— NJ Weather News (@NJWxNews) January 3, 2022

sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

Also look out west. Once again the Pac strikes again. I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough. We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome. Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west. The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.

Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

Also look out west.  Once again the Pac strikes again.  I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough.  We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome.  Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west.  The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.  

Yes we were pointing out the a slower storm evolution would be better for the NS energy to dive in and phase making the trough go towards Negative and lift more N trajectory. Also by slowing up it would allow the confluence over NE to subside and BUT that allowed that fast flow in the PAC to act as a kicker. 6 in one hand and a 1/2 dozen in the other. Hey it was fun tracking and congrats to our SNJ poster. Enjoy Nature's beauty and post pics please!!

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

Also look out west.  Once again the Pac strikes again.  I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough.  We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome.  Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west.  The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.  

That's a great point and Frank did note that out days ago. The western ridge takes a beating these past several years causing progressive flows.

dsix85 wrote:Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?

I do. I still think 1-3 is possible N to S east of Rte 83 or perhaps William floyd. But it will come later