January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Please move all January 3 storm conversation here.

Lots of moving parts that any can affect this storm greatly in + direction.

12Z GFS running. This could be telling peeps.
A little slower at first and west.

Another bump north on the 12z GFS from 6z

As the great Tom Pett CPs man sand ..Won't Back Down..
GFS is doing this FTW!!

A bit slower allows backside energy to partially get into the trough and the WAR pressing a tad more. One more tick and we are good for NYC metro for plowable snowstorm

12Z GFS 500mb trough already swings negative at hr 21.  The very best 700mb lift is in SE NJ Atlantic City to Cape May, but anywhere Pt Pleasant on south will get hit hard.  There is room for this to come north a bit more, but I don't think much more due to the trajectory of the ULL.  This could be quite the event for coastal NJ.

frank 638 wrote:How much snow will nyc get

I think this will be painful to watch on radar for anyone north of I-78 with exception of eastern LI.

Good morning everyone my whole household has been hit with covid for  The last week or so.   The good news is that we're all fully vaccinated and the symptoms have been mild.  What's interesting about this storm Is that Virginia Maryland Delaware Southern New Jersey will reach climo snowfall in a LA Nina.  That definitely wasn't expected with still 2 months of Winter to go

amugs wrote:A bit slower allows backside energy to partially get into the trough and the WAR pressing a tad more. One more tick and we are good for NYC metro for plowable snowstorm

Yep. GFS was painfully close to a phase. If that shortwave slows up a tad more this thing would go boom. Problem is the flow probably is a bit too progressive for that to happen. Regardless like the NWS said this is an evolving forecast and still bears close watching.

GFS with 20" of snow for Atlantic City and 17 for dc incredible

Al hope ur all on the mend and speedy healthy recovery.

Bump from other thread. Not to shabby.


Monday has a shot, albeit not much but it's still on the table. Need this piece of Energy over NE called confluence to relax more and the Northern energy over the Great Lake's to speed up a tad and catch the Main stream over VA Caoes region or Delmarva and we can have a moderate event for the NYC region and especially CNJ/Coastal NJ and LI.
Right now SNJ - say about Brick/Pt. PT Pleasantleasant looks to be in a good spot for Mondays storm and extended holiday vacay for the kids!!!

From 33 n Rain ShowMe - Great visual maps

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My one concern being on the edge is there is a big push of fresh cold dry air. That could really trim the northern gradient

All I can say is yeah I wish it was my back yard, but they are due. Literally 3 years in a row they haven't gotten anywhere near their seasonal snowfall. DC right to the Jersey shore anomalously low totals.

NWS meteorologists really have a tough job. I don't envy it, but respect the hell out them. This will obviously be updated in short order.

Updated map from Steve D

GEFS are NW of the OP.

Cmc is a tick north



Very nice for A.C southward

GEFS mean snowfall and I normally don't like looking at Global ensembles at this range, but I think GFS op is out to lunch.  I think this looks more realistic than the op numbers.  I think 1' at Jersey coast makes sense southern Ocean to Cape May.  I don't buy 20" for one minute with this setup.  2-4" like what Frank has in the scroll sounds possible.  But if there is too much subsidence and dry air it will be nothing but virga 78 on north.

Hey all so. This is a surprise doesn't look like I'll get much some models show maybe 1 to 3 but snj deserves this so many times they been shafted. Yeah it'll be painful to watch but at least there's a snowstorm! Gives hope for us north of NYC for future storms. But who knows with this still have 24 hrs. Track! This reminds me of the flip in last minute track of boxing day blizzard except further south.

Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?

jmanley32 wrote:Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?

 It doesn't look good for us hopefully we can squeak out an inch with some nice Arctic air to follow would make it look very wintry for a few days

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?

 It doesn't look good for us hopefully we can squeak out an inch with some nice Arctic air to follow would make it look very wintry for a few days

i figured as much, thats okay we will get ours just barely jan. Crazy that NYC may see 2-4 and literally a mile outside the bronx we may see a inch, talk about a shoarp cutoff lol, if i wasnt working i might have gone to the city or even down to jersey.