Tropics

dkodgis wrote:Fiona is looking to go further off our coast and not be a significant weather feature?

Looking that way Damian. Only potential fly in the ointment would be if she gets torn apart  by going right over the mountains of Hispaniola and remains weak once it’s on the northern side. There are a few euro ensembles that still show this possibility. The overall consensus does seem to involves a fairly potent trough that sucks her right up and out.  No is scotia to Bermuda are still in the game as Jon pointed out.

Fwiw she looks really healthy and appears to be getting her act together as the sun sets tonight.

NG, wth is with this Grid, it's a CAT 1 for goodness sake and they're are in hcane ally!!

All of Puerto Rico has lost power due to Hurricane #Fiona. pic.twitter.com/uDMiBhdNxp

— Atlantic (@WxAtlantic) September 18, 2022

Wow!!

#Utuado #PuertoRico #HuracánFiona (18 sept. 2022). pic.twitter.com/BXGvGwDiJZ

— José Enrico Valenzuela-Alvarado (@LcdoValenzuela) September 18, 2022

going to have to keep an eye on this trop wave to spin up into something as it makes its way into the Carribean.  Then it could get pulled up into the GOM and become a problem. Long way for that though.

WHOA - both big boys have this and almost identical lock step 10 days out of course but Michael Repeat??

That escalated fast

amugs wrote:That escalated fast

Yup and if models hold what they are showing cat 5 into panhandle, would be awful. Is there any chance this makes a EC hit? It is 10 days out and isn't this the storm RB said had a sandy like setup the other day? Some runs show it doing similar to Ida and bringing us some crazy ran and wind on the eastern side. Of course not hurricane force but still enough to cause some disruption. Will have watch this one for sure. Looks like Bermuda will escape a direct hit from Fiona but wow the NHC has her staying a cat 3+ way far north into Atlantic, crazy.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:That escalated fast

Yup and if models hold what they are showing cat 5 into panhandle, would be awful.  Is there any chance this makes a EC hit? It is 10 days out and isn't this the storm RB said had a sandy like setup the other day? Some runs show it doing similar to Ida and bringing us some crazy ran and wind on the eastern side. Of course not hurricane force but still enough to cause some disruption.  Will have watch this one for sure. Looks like Bermuda will escape a direct hit from Fiona but wow the NHC has her staying a cat 3+ way far north into Atlantic, crazy.

Other than a high probability of it becoming a tropical system soon the track beyond that is far from certain. Going to have to see where exactly the center of circulation develops along the tropical wave. Then models will start to develop a track. If I have some time I may try and throw some images up this week with some thoughts on all of it.

Regarding Fiona she phases with the fairly deep trough that picks her up injecting energy into the system which could drop her pressure as it does so making her stronger after weakening only slightly it appears. This will also be her transition from a warm core tropical system to a cold core subtropical system, the same way Sandy did as she got drawn back into the NJ coast. I believe the NHC now continues to classify the system using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale even after subtropical transition after alm the debacle over Sandy and wether she was still a hurricane because of becoming “cold core” after it phased with the trough.

Charlie 2.0??

This would help mitigate the drought

CMC would be a strong Nor for sure!!

All of the models have some sort of remnant impact on our weather well down the road - potentially as early as next weekend. But that’s way out there and much can change. https://t.co/ezZfJw7zxv pic.twitter.com/IAzVhCMlWV

— eweather (@Eweather13) September 22, 2022

REALLY??? Greenland may have a TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY on its western shores??

Great thread!!

1/2: With an assist from Fiona's upcoming delicate phase, the day 5 ECMWF is depicting a blockier look and a more meridionally oriented WCAN ridge. The trough axis is sharper as a result/hangs back a bit more. Does that mean much at this time? Nope. However, it may be.. https://t.co/47LHBGQxYn pic.twitter.com/n2zvJVMrqX

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) September 22, 2022

Worth keeping anfor similar trends depending on if/when 98L dvlps/tracks N. The synoptic features in question may have a steering component effect/secondary effect considerations(I.e. Hvy rain/svr wx displaced away from storm center) but we'll cross that bridge only if needed.

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) September 22, 2022

My morning take - this will rake the keys then the SW Gulf Coast of Fla by say Marco Island/Naples and cross over and exit up around Vero Beach then rememerge over the Atlantic. Fiona's massive phase hybrid aspect and heat release is going to shunt the pattern from a progressive flow to a Meridional and cause the ridge out west to sharpen up an dteh trough that will swing down next week to sharpen as well as pump the NATL ridge. These mechanisms will allow this Tropical Cyclone to ride the eastern Seaboard making two landfall maybe 3 depending on its speed and strength. OBX region as a Hurricane Cat 1/2 and LI to Cape Cod as strong Tropical Storm/ Minimal Hcane. Not wishcasting but recognizing pattern development and what is at play as we move forward.
Fiona is going to have a big say for the Hurricane's path and we won't know for a coupleof days what that maybe but the looks now are showing what I explain above.

Well hello 00z Euro 192 h8rs out but those ensembles are a tad concerning.

Hermine could get good

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs. Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  

Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  

Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri. The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.

You can start to see the prev naked low level center starting to creep under the convection because the Northerly to Northeasterly shear is starting to let up as Fiona conts to gain latitude.  It wont be long before we have Hermine

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  

Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  

Right right, thanks. I could have looked it up but I am working. Lol, when weather comes up we all arise from the lurking

sroc4 wrote:You can start to see the prev naked low level center starting to creep under the convection because the Northerly to Northeasterly shear is starting to let up as Fiona conts to gain latitude.  It wont be long before we have Hermine

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

Yeah looks decent and in a good part to really fire up. I would not be surprised to see a major sooner than just at the FL coast. And this might be a monster for FL, for their sake I hope not.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  

Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  

Right right, thanks. I could have looked it up but I am working. Lol, when weather comes up we all arise from the lurking

lol Hear here my friend.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  

Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  

Right right, thanks. I could have looked it up but I am working. Lol, when weather comes up we all arise from the lurking

lol  Hear here my friend.  

well actually most of the summer I did not even look to be honest pretty much not even since early in 2022 once snoe season was over. Been so boring. No wild t-storms nada. Okay enough banter, onto our Tropics tracking!