Re: Tropics

by **amugs** Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:27 pm

CAT 4 is sick

by **Joe Snow** Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:35 pm

I am in Sanford Florida right now. This is insane.

by **amugs** Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:42 pm

Landfall #2

by **Radz** Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:20 am

Cat 4 as of 5am 941mb

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:29 am

Radz wrote:Cat 4 as of 5am 941mb

Yup. Recon just measured winds 135kts(155mph) surface winds and 160kt(185mph) flight level winds in the western eye wall. Only hope is that there is some weakening jyst before the eye wall makes it on land.

Tropics - Page 12 Recon_NOAA2-2809A-IAN_timeseries

Tropics - Page 12 Recon_NOAA2-2809A-IAN_timeseries

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:39 am

OMG just woke to see new advisory basically a cat 5 (2mph away)....155mph 935mb. A freinds rental home is in Ft. Myers...All they could do is board up. I am watching storm chasers on youtube they say landfall is going to be punta gorda.

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:43 am

There is some dry air just starting to work its way into Ivan. Question is is it too little too late. Probably. The eye is still sitting just off shore and its slowed to a crawl so hopefully there is enough time to weaken the peak winds at least a little before the come onshore.

Current water vapor sat imagery shows it: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=wv_mid

Current hurricane hunter in the storm shows there is some dry air trying to infiltrate the 700mb level

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:45 am

What channels are doing live coverage? TWC isnt showing much video usually thats the only reason I watch them is to see live coverage.

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:59 am

sroc4 wrote:There is some dry air just starting to work its way into Ivan. Question is is it too little too late. Probably. The eye is still sitting just off shore and its slowed to a crawl so hopefully there is enough time to weaken the peak winds at least a little before the come onshore.

Current water vapor sat imagery shows it: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=wv_mid

Current hurricane hunter in the storm shows there is some dry air trying to infiltrate the 700mb level

by **Radz** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:00 am

Cat 5 155mph

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:02 am

Radz wrote:Cat 5 155mph

Just shy, cat 5 is 157mph. yes it is splitting hairs but thats the cut off.

by **Radz** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am

Yes almost

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am

Dry air pesshad, he's a 5 in my book write now and ain't no stopping him now, he sand this once he cleared Cuba.

Recon finding flight level winds over 140 knots(160)mph in the E/SE eyewall in #Ian now! That translate to about a 140mph Cat 4 Hurricane. Pressure is in the low 940’s(941-942mb) and landfall is still ~12 hours away. This could approach borderline Cat 5 status if this continues pic.twitter.com/Iv9Wp7PNv0
— BGWX (@BradyBGWX) September 28, 2022

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:05 am

amugs wrote:Dry air pesshad, he's a 5 in my book write now and ain't no stopping him now, he sand this once he cleared Cuba.

Recon finding flight level winds over 140 knots(160)mph in the E/SE eyewall in #Ian now! That translate to about a 140mph Cat 4 Hurricane. Pressure is in the low 940’s(941-942mb) and landfall is still ~12 hours away. This could approach borderline Cat 5 status if this continues pic.twitter.com/Iv9Wp7PNv0
— BGWX (@BradyBGWX) September 28, 2022

mugs thats old he 155mph 935mb, freaking beast scary.

by **Radz** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:05 am

I’m surprised because of yesterday’s EWRC but it really tightened up quickly

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:07 am

Wow Ft. Myers to Naples storm surge 12-16 ft, that's where my friends house is and on the canal.

by **frank 638** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:35 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow Ft. Myers to Naples storm surge 12-16 ft, that's where my friends house is and on the canal.

my god I pray to god for a miracle I can’t believe this is happening now

I hope everyone has evacuated my heart goes out to Florida my aunt is in Delray Florida

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:45 am

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow Ft. Myers to Naples storm surge 12-16 ft, that's where my friends house is and on the canal.
my god I pray to god for a miracle I can’t believe this is happening now I hope everyone has evacuated my heart goes out to Florida my aunt is in Delray Florida

Many did not or could not evacuate, a family friend down there said its impossible to get out and has been and area hotels are booked. I fear there will be losses sadly. Not even the winds it is the water I am most concerned about, the winds will still be bad.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:47 am

Can you guys believe a few of my ebay buyers in FL are angry at me and want a refund because the USPS is not making deliveries and they want their stuff!! Thankfully Ebay has put seller protections in place due to Ian. Some people just cannot think logically. Yes sure.... it is my fault there is a near cat 5 hurricane and that USPS can't do their jobs there. Why don't you worry about your safety and working on boarding up etc. (this going back a few days).

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:04 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow Ft. Myers to Naples storm surge 12-16 ft, that's where my friends house is and on the canal.

My brother from another mother lives in fort Meyers as well and didn’t leave.

https://twitter.com/efisherwx/status/1575083552357879809?s=42&t=SjUyilBCuSrel638afaiuA

by **Joe Snow** Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:39 am

Drained the pool 12” this morning, for the expected rain, 20”+ It was already at the top this morning. Going to be a battle.

Probably looking at a cat 3 cane by me.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:40 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow Ft. Myers to Naples storm surge 12-16 ft, that's where my friends house is and on the canal.

My brother from another mother lives in fort Meyers as well and didn’t leave.

https://twitter.com/efisherwx/status/1575083552357879809?s=42&t=SjUyilBCuSrel638afaiuA

Omg Scott that is horrible to even imagine. My ex in cape coral...I am so worried for them..not sure if they left I am praying they did. ...and everyone else....

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:41 am

Joe Snow wrote:Drained the pool 12” this morning, for the expected rain, 20”+ It was already at the top this morning. Going to be a battle.

Probably looking at a cat 3 cane by me.

Oh my gosh please be safe!

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:48 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:Drained the pool 12” this morning, for the expected rain, 20”+ It was already at the top this morning. Going to be a battle.

Probably looking at a cat 3 cane by me.
Oh my gosh please be safe!

Dittio Joe, stay safe. Keeping your pool from flooding isnt worth your life if its too dangerous to go out. Stay safe and keep us posted if you can.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 am

Wow, and not even there yet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwTGxbOjZhQ

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 am

Tropics - Page 12 FdvXBJ5WAAEdVWG?format=jpg&name=large

This is not good for Ga through NC/SC border

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:06 am

Next High tide in Fort Meyers area is going to be between 6-7pm tonight. Currently on its way down.

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